Clegg's head remains the price of a Labour-Lib Dem coalition

Miliband confirms that he wouldn't form a coalition with Clegg. But could he work with Cable?

Nick Clegg's declaration this weekend that he would be prepared to form a coalition with Labour after the next election was significant because it was at odds with much of what he's previously said on the subject. In a speech in May 2011, for instance, Clegg rebuked those in party, most notably Vince Cable and Chris Huhne, who talk up the possibility of a future alliance with Labour. He said:

There are still those who dream of a so-called ‘progressive alliance’, forgetting that Labour had 13 years to make some moves in that direction and never quite seemed to get around to it until, in desperation, they tried to cling to power last year.

But asked by the People if he could do business with Ed Miliband, Clegg replied: "Yes. If the British people said that the only combination which could work would be those two parties, in the same way as after the last election the only combination which could work was Conservatives and Liberal Democrats, it would be obvious that Liberal Democrats would need to do their duty."

Invited to return the compliment, Miliband, however, has declined. It was in an interview with the New Statesman in August 2010 that the Labour leader first indicated that Clegg's resignation would be a precondition of any deal with the Lib Dems, and nothing since has changed his mind. He told today's Independent that he would find it "difficult to work with" Clegg, an "accomplice" to the Tories. Though his language is more ambiguous than on other occasions, the message remains that Clegg's head is the price of any deal.

Since there is a good chance the next election will result in another hung parliament, Clegg and Miliband's comments are more significant than they may appear.  It is worth noting, for instance, that Miliband has never ruled out working with Vince Cable, who openly displayed his leadership ambitions this weekend. Ed Balls has gone further, declaring that he "could serve in a Cabinet with Chris Huhne or Vince Cable tomorrow". Should Cable lead the Lib Dems into the next election (with Clegg perhaps returning to Brussels to serve as the UK's EU commissioner), it would significantly increase Ed Miliband's chances of becoming prime minister.

Ed Miliband said he would find it "difficult to work with" Nick Clegg. Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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How will Labour handle the Trident vote?

Shadow cabinet ministers have been promised a free vote and dismiss suggestions that the party should abstain. 

At some point this year MPs will vote on whether Trident should be renewed. It is politics, rather than policy, that will likely determine the timing. With Labour more divided on the nuclear question than any other, the Tories aim to inflict maximum damage on the opposition. Some want an early vote in order to wreak havoc ahead of the May elections, while others suggest waiting until autumn in the hope that the unilateralist Jeremy Corbyn may have changed party policy by then.  

Urged at PMQs by Conservative defence select committee chair Julian Lewis to "do the statesmanlike thing" and hold the vote "as soon as possible", Cameron replied: "We should have the vote when we need to have the vote and that is exactly what we will do" - a reply that does little to settle the matter. 

As I've reported before, frontbenchers have been privately assured by Corbyn that they and other Labour MPs will have a free vote on the issue. Just seven of the shadow cabinet's 31 members support unilateral disarmament, with Tom Watson, Andy Burnham, Hilary Benn and Angela Eagle among those committed to Trident renewal. But interviewed on the Today programme yesterday, after her gruelling PLP appearance, Emily Thornberry suggested that Labour may advise MPs to abstain. Noting that there was no legal requirement for the Commons to vote on the decision (and that MPs did so in 2007), she denounced the Tories for "playing games". But the possibility that Labour could ignore the vote was described to me by one shadow cabinet member as "madness". He warned that Labour would appear entirely unfit to govern if it abstained on a matter of national security. 

But with Trident renewal a fait accompli, owing to the Conservatives' majority, the real battle is to determine Labour's stance at the next election. Sources on both sides are doubtful that Corbyn will have the support required to change policy at the party conference, with the trade unions, including the pro-Trident Unite and GMB, holding 50 per cent of the vote. And Trident supporters also speak of their success against the left in constituency delegate elections. One described the Corbyn-aligned Momentum as a "clickocracy" that ultimately failed to turn out when required. 

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.