The Cameron-Brooks texts begin to leak

The PM told Brooks to "keep her head up" the week she resigned.

Last week we learned that David Cameron may have texted Rebekah Brooks "a dozen" times a day. Today, courtesy of News International's the Times (£), we learn of some of the contents. An updated version of Times journalist Francis Elliott and Independent journalist James Hanning's biography of the PM, Cameron: Practically a Conservative, reveals that Cameron texted Brooks in the week she resigned as chief executive of News International to tell her "to keep her head up" (not a direct quote).

In a revelation that will certainly brighten Labour's morning, we also learn that such contact then came to an "abrupt halt", with Cameron dispatching an emissary to explain that "Ed Miliband had him on the run." And there's more: Brooks and Cameron texted each other to make sure they were not seen together at the Heythrop point-to-point; Cameron asked the Met to open a review into the Madeleine McCann case in May 2011 as "a favour" for Brooks; and Royal courtiers warned that Buckingham Palace would "think poorly" of a decision to take Andy Coulson into Downing Street.

The case for the defence is put by Oliver Letwin. "If you are on the same side as her (Brooks), you have to see her every week," he explains. "This was how it worked." In other words, the PM courted Brooks no more or less than Tony Blair and Gordon Brown. But even if we accept Letwin's assurances, the problem for Cameron is that he was the one standing up when the music stopped.

It's tempting to dismiss the Leveson inquiry (before which Coulson will testify on Thursday, followed by Brooks on Friday) as of interest only to journalists but Rebekah Brooks's name is one that has penetrated the public consciousness. As I've written before, the claim that Cameron texted her a dozen times a day (more contact than most people have with their partner) could permanently reduce him in the eyes of the public. Conversely, as Sunder Katwala notes, there are "as of now, no actual texts/emails to/from Cameron to Rebekah Brooks yet in public domain." So long as this remains the case, No. 10 will hope that it can limit the damage.

David Cameron with former Sun editor and News International chief executive Rebekah Brooks.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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How austere will Philip Hammond be?

The Chancellor must choose between softening or abandoning George Osborne's approach in his Autumn Statement. 

After becoming Chancellor, Philip Hammond was swift to confirm that George Osborne's budget surplus target would be abandoned. The move was hailed by some as the beginning of a new era of fiscal policy - but it was more modest than it appeared. Rather than a statement of principle, the abandonment of the 2019-20 target was merely an acceptance of reality. In the absence of additional spending cuts or tax rises, it would inevitably be missed (as Osborne himself recognised following the EU referendum). The decision did not represent, as some suggested, "the end of austerity".

Ahead of his first Autumn Statement on 23 November, the defining choice facing Hammond is whether to make a more radical break. As a new Resolution Foundation report notes, the Chancellor could either delay the surplus target (the conservative option) or embrace an alternative goal. Were he to seek a current budget suplus, rather than an overall one (as Labour pledged at the last general election), Hammond would avoid the need for further austerity and give himself up to £17bn of headroom. This would allow him to borrow for investment and to provide support for the "just managing" families (as Theresa May calls them) who will be squeezed by the continuing benefits freeze.

Alternatively, should Hammond merely delay Osborne's surplus target by a year (to 2020-21), he would be forced to impose an additional £9bn of tax rises or spending cuts. Were he to reject any further fiscal tightening, a surplus would not be achieved until 2023-24 - too late to be politically relevant. 

The most logical option, as the Resolution Foundation concludes, is for Hammond to target a current surplus. But since entering office, both he and May have emphasised their continuing commitment to fiscal conservatism ("He talks about austerity – I call it living within our means," the latter told Jeremy Corbyn at her first PMQs). For Hammond to abandon the goal of the UK's first budget surplus since 2001-02 would be a defining moment. 

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.