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The British public backs Francois Hollande, a new YouGov poll suggests

The new poll contains some pretty bad news for the austerity junkies.

A YouGov poll out today, and commissioned by the new trade-union-backed thinktank, Class, reveals that the British public strongly favours the anti-austerity policies championed by the new Socialist President of France, Francois Hollande, including:

  • establishing a publicly-owned bank that will lend to small and medium businesses (74 per cent strongly support or tend to support)
  • introducing a 75 per cent top rate of income tax for those earning over £1 million per year (56 per cent strongly support or tend to support)
  • providing more financial support for young people from low income families, so they can better afford to go to college or university (73 per cent strongly support or tend to support) 
  • a national programme of building 500,000 extra homes a year, including 150,000 new council houses (64 per cent strongly support or tend to support)
  • bringing in a new tax on financial transactions by investment banks (61 per cent strongly support or tend to support).

Do you want to know what the new "centre ground" on the economy looks like? Well, this is it.

As Unite's Steve Hart, the chair of Class, argues over at Left Foot Forward:

Except on the income tax proposal – the Tories split 42-51% on that – all these policies were backed by supporters of all parties. The proposal for a publically owned bank to lend to small and medium business had the support of 74% of those polled. Even 72% of Tory voters supported it.

He adds:

Labour’s tentative proposal for a British Investment Bank must surely now become a strong pledge.

What on earth are the two Eds waiting for?

Mehdi Hasan is a contributing writer for the New Statesman and the co-author of Ed: The Milibands and the Making of a Labour Leader. He was the New Statesman's senior editor (politics) from 2009-12.

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Could Labour lose the Oldham by-election?

Sources warn defeat is not unthinkable but the party's ground campaign believe they will hold on. 

As shadow cabinet members argue in public over Labour's position on Syria and John McDonnell defends his Mao moment, it has been easy to forget that the party next week faces its first election test since Jeremy Corbyn became leader. On paper, Oldham West and Royton should be a straightforward win. Michael Meacher, whose death last month triggered the by-election, held the seat with a majority of 14,738 just seven months ago. The party opted for an early pre-Christmas poll, giving second-placed Ukip less time to gain momentum, and selected the respected Oldham council leader Jim McMahon as its candidate. 

But in recent weeks Labour sources have become ever more anxious. Shadow cabinet members returning from campaigning report that Corbyn has gone down "very badly" with voters, with his original comments on shoot-to-kill particularly toxic. Most MPs expect the party's majority to lie within the 1,000-2,000 range. But one insider told me that the party's majority would likely fall into the hundreds ("I'd be thrilled with 2,000") and warned that defeat was far from unthinkable. The fear is that low turnout and defections to Ukip could allow the Farageists to sneak a win. MPs are further troubled by the likelihood that the contest will take place on the same day as the Syria vote (Thursday), which will badly divide Labour. 

The party's ground campaign, however, "aren't in panic mode", I'm told, with data showing them on course to hold the seat with a sharply reduced majority. As Tim noted in his recent report from the seat, unlike Heywood and Middleton, where Ukip finished just 617 votes behind Labour in a 2014 by-election, Oldham has a significant Asian population (accounting for 26.5 per cent of the total), which is largely hostile to Ukip and likely to remain loyal to Labour. 

Expectations are now so low that a win alone will be celebrated. But expect Corbyn's opponents to point out that working class Ukip voters were among the groups the Labour leader was supposed to attract. They are likely to credit McMahon with the victory and argue that the party held the seat in spite of Corbyn, rather than because of him. Ukip have sought to turn the contest into a referendum on the Labour leader's patriotism but McMahon replied: "My grandfather served in the army, my father and my partner’s fathers were in the Territorial Army. I raised money to restore my local cenotaph. On 18 December I will be going with pride to London to collect my OBE from the Queen and bring it back to Oldham as a local boy done good. If they want to pick a fight on patriotism, bring it on."  "If we had any other candidate we'd have been in enormous trouble," one shadow minister concluded. 

Of Corbyn, who cancelled a visit to the seat today, one source said: "I don't think Jeremy himself spends any time thinking about it, he doesn't think that electoral outcomes at this stage touch him somehow."  

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.