Nelson Jones

Belief, disbelief and beyond belief

The shrinking majority

Britain is still a Christian country but the drift towards secularism continues.

By Nelson Jones Published 29 September 2011 12:43

The latest data release from the ONS's integrated household survey shows a continued, slow decline in Christian affiliation, a small but significant increase in the number of people who profess no religion, the sustained growth of Islam and stability or decline in other religious groups.

The headline figures suggest that the United Kingdom remains a predominantly religious and mostly Christian country. Almost seven in ten (68.5 per cent) identify themselves to researchers as Christians -- far more than the 15 per cent who regularly attend church. Less than a quarter (23 per cent) profess no religion at all (although in Wales, the figure is considerable higher, at close to one in three. Of the population as a whole, 4.4% is Muslim -- more than all other minority faiths put together -- but still less than one person in 20. (The full IHS figures can be found here.)

This picture of stability may be something an illusion, however. The last time this survey was conducted, in 2009-2010, the figure for Christian affiliation was 71.4 per cent and for no religion was just 20 per cent. A movement of 3 per cent from a Christian identity to a non-religious one in a single year is potentially a dramatic one. The annual population survey, which has included a religion question since 2004, records what looks like a consistent pattern. In 2004-2005, the figures stood at around 78 per cent Christians and less than 16 per cent having no belief. Then, 3.2 per cent were Muslim. In every subsequent year, the number of self-styled Christians has declined -- and most of that decline can be accounted for by an increase in non-belief. (For a detailed breakdown of the statistics, see this EHRC survey here.

Now, look at the age profile of belief in Britain. According to the latest IHS, Christian affiliation is strongly correlated with age. No fewer than 87.6 per cent of those over 65 define themselves as Christians and almost 80 per cent of those aged over 50 but below retirement age. The 25-34 age group would seem to be the least religious, with just over half calling themselves Christians and about a third having no affiliation. At the same time, growth in Islam is taking place predominantly among the young. Almost 8 per cent of under 16s are now counted as Muslim, compared with a mere 1 per cent of those over 65.

There are various possible explanations for the age differential. One is that people are drifting away from religion in early adulthood but returning to it in old age when, among other things, they are more preoccupied with thoughts of death and a possible afterlife. There may be some truth in this. The new figures suggest that there is more religious attachment among those under 24 (and especially under 16) than among their slightly older peers. But not much. Another possibility is that younger people are simply more honest -- that older respondents grew up at a time when to admit to having no religion was less socially acceptable than it is today and have retained a habit of pretending to believe.

The most likely scenario, however, has to be that Christianity is contracting in the UK at a steady and observable rate, a long-term trend that has not been altered significantly by the increasing profile of religion in the media, politics and public debate over the past ten years.

It's not all bad news for Christian leaders. The UK remains theoretically a Christian majority country and is likely to be so for many years to come. The secularisation of society does not seem yet to have reached a tipping point at which attachment to Christianity -- however notional -- collapses. Lack of affiliation with any religion, moreover, is not the same thing as out-and-out atheism -- it can encompass a wide range of vaguely religious and spiritual beliefs. Membership of many evangelical churches continues to grow. And the churches retain formidable resources in terms of organisation, political influence and social prestige.

The days of most people automatically ticking the box marked "C of E" may well be numbered. And if the Christian majority continues to shrink, the historic privileges of the established church -- and of Christianity generally -- will become ever harder to defend.

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Tags: Christianity

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21 comments

Fri, 2011-09-30 20:59 — TelCart (not verified)

How many active members of political parties are there compared with voters who profess an allegiance?

The ratio of churchgoers to believers compares well with that in politics. What I don't understand is why the media devote so much attention to party-political bickering compared with religion, which matters far more to far more people. 'Socialism', 'free enterprise'-- how many have faith in that stuff these days?

It's evidence that media pros are out of touch with the majority of their market, which may be why the MSM are dying out faster than mosques and churches.

Fri, 2011-10-07 02:11 — Daniele1

What most people mean when they say they are Christians is that they have been baptised and they had a church wedding. Many people feel obliged to define themselves as Christians simply as a cultural identity which includes the celebration of Christmas etc..They like the traditions, the beauty of churches or church music, the Xmas celebration etc..
It doesn't mean A THING! in fact if you were asking the right questions, you would probably find that, Thank god!, most people couldn't care less about religion and do not even believe in a god up there.
15% who go to church is probably about right, plus a few believers in the historical Jesus, like Keir, who have no time for established religion (I guess there are very few of those).
So there you have it. there are probably more Muslims than Christians in Britain.Quelle horreur!
Time to disestablish the C of E and get rid of these 26 bishops in the Lords who are shaping laws for this land and pretend to speak for me.
Secularism is overdue in this country. A state religion is an absurd anachronism which has no place in a modern multicultural democracy.

Fri, 2011-09-30 00:11 — Phil (not verified)

The number who attend British Humanist Society meetings is far more realistic.

Fri, 2011-09-30 00:17 — Gerry Tierney (not verified)

Goodbye religion. Hopefully you fuck off soon and never return.

The internet, the space station, gene therapy, invisible friends.

What's the odd one out?

Fri, 2011-09-30 01:25 — amarita

@ Gerry Tierney: "Goodbye religion. Hopefully you fuck off soon and never return."

i would much rather have well-mannered religious people, than foul mouthed atheists

Fri, 2011-09-30 02:04 — Kowalski (not verified)

@ Gerry. A ridiculous and non sensical statement.

Thu, 2011-09-29 13:04 — John Dale (not verified)

"And if the Christian majority continues to shrink, the historic privileges of the established church, and of Christianity generally, will become ever harder to defend."

They're already utterly indefensible.

Fri, 2011-09-30 09:36 — swatantra nandanwar

Its only in times of disasters and catastrophies that people start praying to their God. They should have more Faith but also be freer to dissent frm some of the ridiculous rituals and practices and myths that surround Relgion.

Thu, 2011-09-29 13:45 — Andrew (not verified)

So basically although they are a majority they can be discounted because they are; too old; don't go to church often enough or aren't "real" Christians enough by some arbitrary set of criteria set by the writer.

Have similar criteria been used to count the number of muslims I wonder?

Say, how often do you do the required 5 times a day prayer; how strictly do you follow dietary laws; do you attend mosque every Friday; do you always fast during Ramadan; do you believe every last thing in the Koran - that sort of thing.

Or would it be a simple head counting exercise based upon ethnicity and parental affiliation?

If so, why the different methods?

Christianity is already treated as marginal in some circles, despite being the majority faith of the nation.

Could it be that someone is trying to simply talk Christians out of existence?

Surely not! That wouldn't be very democratic, would it?

Thu, 2011-09-29 13:53 — Sir Michael (not verified)

Some people really need to understand something; secularism is not state atheism. State atheism has been tried many times, and has always involved in the kind of human tragedy which pales in comparison theocratic attrocities.

One can be religious and secular, and be atheist yet desire the state to get involved in matters of religion. This article says nothing of secularity but everything about the demographics of religion, which have swung both directions over the centuries.

Thu, 2011-09-29 14:58 — David (not verified)

"There are various possible explanations for the age differential. One is that people are drifting away from religion in early adulthood but returning to it in old age when, among other things, they are more preoccupied with thoughts of death and a possible afterlife. There may be some truth in this."

No. You cannot make that sort of assumption from one sample; only from a longitudinal survey which tracks behaviour and asks why people may be more/less religious. Another example of how people misuse statistics to suit their argument.

Fri, 2011-09-30 10:55 — Sir Michael (not verified)

@Gerry - you are absolute proof that atheism is not superior to religion.

@Religious people - please don't judge all of us atheists by the comments of a handful of bigoted and stupid individuals here. Just as most religious people can get along quite comfortably with atheists most atheists don't bear ill will towards religion. There are just a minority of extremely vocal supremacist atheist fundamentalists who make a disproportionate amount of noise.

@The author - far more people attend church than attend Dawkins conventions. Does that mean that atheism is on the way out?

"But you don't have to attend Dawkins conventions to be atheist!"

But one must attend church to be religious?

Fri, 2011-09-30 11:10 — Trevor (not verified)

The term Christian country is an oxymoron.

"Jesus answered, My kingdom is not of this world: if my kingdom were of this world, then would my servants fight... but now is my kingdom not from hence." John 18.36.

What passes for "Christianity" today bears no relation to the beliefs and practices of Christ and the early Christians who had no time for nationalism in any form; hence their persecution by the Roman state.

(Incidentally, I'm an atheist.)

Thu, 2011-09-29 15:26 — Keir

They're already utterly indefensible.'

Quite so. But just how far are people willing to go? Will they erase 'DG' and 'FD' from the coinage? Will they abandon Christmas and Easter? Will they even abolish church schools?

Thu, 2011-09-29 15:58 — David Myles (not verified)

Be wary of too widely quoting these statistics in the disestablishment cause to widely on the basis of these longtitudinal statistics. Attitudes change and what we believe in our teens and twenties may not be so in later life.
These statistics show a fall of a third in Christian beliefs. this more than mirrored by the decline of 50% in the Jewish faith.
However both Muslim beliefs going up nearly 8 fold, Bhuddhism tripling and Hiduism and Shikhism doubling. Are we just seeing a shift in faith rather than its demise?

Thu, 2011-09-29 16:03 — MattyG (not verified)

@ John Dale - bang on.

The fact that 68.5% of people "say" they're Christian is misleading.
The number that actually attend church (15%) is far more realistic for the purpose of gaining any kind of useful understanding of the numbers.

As more information becomes more readily available, more middle-of-the-road people seem to be becoming atheists - whereas to counter that, the evangelicals have an easier route to prey on the weak.

Hopefully common sense will win in the end.

Thu, 2011-09-29 16:04 — Peter Alison (not verified)

The question asked was:
' What is your religion, even if you are not currently practising?', so many would have answered Christian simply to distinguish themselves form Muslim, Jewish etc. It is totally meaningless

Thu, 2011-09-29 18:26 — andyg (not verified)

When they answered "Christian", what exactly did they mean?

Thu, 2011-09-29 18:57 — Keir

'The number that actually attend church (15%) is far more realistic'

One can believe in Christ, and even reckon to follow him, and also believe that denominations do not represent Christ, and never darken a denominational door. Personally I think that most British people are of that view.

There is also a growing number of people who meet in house groups, who don't register on the official figures.

Sun, 2011-10-02 13:05 — Ted (not verified)

Andrew, Sir Michael and Trevor - spot on. I would like to see your questions answered

Thu, 2011-10-06 11:04 — sam mace (not verified)

@sir Michael, while we atheists have no god to pray to, just people who we respect we don't need to gather around the world with our brothers and sisters. The belief of a god is different,if you truly believe one would imagine someone regularly praying going to church to praise their higher creator to sing and to hear lessons from the Shepard of the flock. Atheism has none of those traits and it is now inbound with going to a convention or a regular meeting. In my opinion i am glad religion is dying, it gives justification for bigotry, mass wealth which the churches should give away, murder, a destruction of logic in the belief of a deity, arrogance and many others.