Robert “Budget Is Regressive” Chote heads for the OBR

It could all end in tears for Cameron and Osborne.

Is the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) "independent"? It's a question my colleague David Blanchflower has been asking for several weeks now in his economics columns in the NS.

Today's appointment of Robert Chote of the Institute for Fiscal Studies as the new head of the OBR -- replacing the outgoing Sir Alan Budd -- will go a long way towards reassuring the likes of Blanchflower. Chote has a reputation as a freethinker and is considered impartial and credible.

He has said that if his appointment is confirmed (by Andrew Tyrie's Treasury select committee), the OBR will present its judgements "without fear or favour".

Chote joins his wife, Sharon White, who is a policy director at the Department for International Development, inside Cameron's big tent -- along with the likes of Will Hutton, Frank Field, Alan Milburn and, of course, the Liberal Democrats.

But here's a question: will Chote continue to describe June's emergency Budget as "regressive" after he takes up the reins at the OBR? It might be a tad awkward for Cameron, Osborne, Clegg et al if he does.

In fact, I suspect that Dave's attempts to erect a "big tent" might backfire on him in the same way as Gordon Brown's "government of all the talents", or "goats", did.

Meanwhile, over on the Telegraph blog, James Kirkup imagines the response of our former PM to news of this particular coalition appointment:

Mr Chote will now become a senior member of the wider Treasury establishment, only a few years after a certain Gordon Brown vacated HMT. It's an open secret that the former PM was not a fan of Mr Chote. The oft-repeated story that Mr Brown engineered Mr Chote's removal as economics editor of the FT in the late 1990s is overstated. But it's certainly the case that Mr Brown frequently referred to Mr Chote using robust language, calling him things that cannot be repeated on a family blog . . . today, we can only imagine Mr Brown's feelings.

Mehdi Hasan is a contributing writer for the New Statesman and the co-author of Ed: The Milibands and the Making of a Labour Leader. He was the New Statesman's senior editor (politics) from 2009-12.

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Theresa May takes early lead in the Conservative leadership race

The first poll of the Tory contest puts the Home Secretary well out in front

Theresa May, the Home Secretary is well ahead among Conservative members according to a new YouGov poll for the Times

She is both the preferred first choice of a plurality of members from an open field (she secures 37 per cent of the vote, with her nearest rival, Boris Johnson, 10 points behind) and roundly trounces Johnson with 55 per cent to 38 per cent. In all other head-to-heads, Johnson wins comfortably.

Although YouGov have a patchy recent record in national contests - they predicted the London mayoral victory but failed to foresee the Conservative majority or the Brexit vote - they are four for four as far as internal party contests are concerned, having accurately predicted both the result and the final vote share of the 2015 and 2010 Labour leadership contests and the 2005 and 2001 Conservative contests. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. He usually writes about politics.