Mehdi Hasan

Mehdi Hasan’s polemical take on politics, economics and foreign affairs

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Does Gordon Brown want to attack 100 countries?

Nonsense from the PM on Afghanistan.

Of the three candidates aspiring to be prime minister, NS readers will be aware that I believe Brown is the best - well, um, er, the best of a mediocre bunch.

But on Afghanistan he is wrong. Plain wrong. He is the one who needs to "get real". In the first debate, Cameron seemed to imply that Britain might go to war with China. In this second debate, Brown seemed to imply that he'd be willing to go to war with around 100 nations on earth.

Don't believe me? Here's the killer quote from the PM:

We've got be to be clear: we cannot allow terrorists to have territory in the world that then they use as a base for attacking the United Kingdom.

According to the Council on Foreign Relations, "Al Qaeda has autonomous underground cells in some 100 countries". So how does Brown plan to deny them their "territory", their "base", in each? God help us all if Afghanistan is the template.

This is a serious point. The idea of engaging in foreign wars to deny al Qaeda safe havens or bases is as impractical as it is pointless. Again, don't take my word for it. Check out this analysis from pro-war policy wonk Stephen Biddle (who has been a civilian adviser to General Stanley McChrystal, the US commander in Afghanistan):

The Taliban movement in Afghanistan is clearly linked with al-Qaeda and sympathetic to it, but there is little evidence of al-Qaeda infrastructure within Afghanistan today that could directly threaten the US homeland. If the current Afghan government collapsed and were replaced with a neo-Taliban regime, or if the Taliban were able to secure political control over some major contiguous fraction of Afghan territory, then perhaps al-Qaeda could re-establish a real haven there.

But the risk that al-Qaeda might succeed in doing this isn't much different [from] the same happening in a wide range of weak states throughout the world, from Yemen to Somalia to Djibouti to Eritrea to Sudan to the Philippines to Uzbekistan, or even parts of Latin America or southern Africa. And of course Iraq and Pakistan could soon host regimes willing to put the state's resources behind al-Qaeda if their current leaderships collapse under pressure.

Many of these countries, especially Iraq and Pakistan, could offer al-Qaeda better havens than Afghanistan ever did...We clearly cannot afford to wage protracted warfare with multiple brigades of American ground forces simply to deny al-Qaeda access to every possible safe haven. We would run out of brigades long before Bin Laden ran out of prospective sanctuaries.

Oh, and one final (key) point. Do you know how many members of al Qaeda are believed to be in Afghanistan right now? Does Gordon Brown? "The maximum estimate is less than 100 operating in the country. No bases. No ability to launch attacks on either us or our allies." That's the verdict of President Obama's national security adviser, General James Jones.

 

6 comments

Reginald-Fah-fah's picture

Bloody marvellous! the Great English Gentleman David Cameron won Thursday's leader's debate, it was like bring back fox hunting with a group of dogs.

Hong Kong!, the desperate Gordon Brown was trying to frighten the 'yellow belly voters' to vote for Labour. Yellow bellies get voting! Gordon Brown's little joke: "Them two remind me of my two children fighting over bathtime." He also knew the different between a woman and a man.!

Bang on! Nick Clegg done the leg work again but no one really understands what he stands for. One has to question himself whether he understands what he stands for?

Oakroyd's picture

Brown doesn't need to attack any other coutries when his record on those already attacked stinks so much:http://www.chickyog.net/

MAKootage's picture

Exactly, Talbian is not al Qaeda. It does not aspire to build a pan-Islamic caliphate, or attack the west. Neither does it have that capability. It is more ethnic Pushtoon than religious Islamic and its leaders merely view themselves as defenders of ancestral land.

On Pakistan- the Taliban could never rise to power democratically or otherwise. Islamic parties recieve less than 2% of the vote in elections. Meanwhile, the state is protected (and occasionally usurped) by a secular and powerful army

Mr. Hasan, couldn't you mention the Lib Dems here? They're a lot more doveish. Iran may be the next flash point, but Clegg is the only candidate who doesn't favour military action!

Tim Mann's picture

Brilliant blog by Mehdi Hasan. I was so depressed listening to this drivel from Brown. I thought I was listening to Eisenhower or Reagan. I really think I've finished with Labour. In Brown's opening and closing statements he mentioned bringing troops out of Afghanistan. During the debate, though, it was clear he had no more intention of pulling out of this war than flying to the moon.

laurencehins111's picture

This is all an aside, but t'Internet is free so why not...

I wish they'd stop trying to be funny and stop using catchphrases like "get real" and "real change".

The attempts at comedy reminded me of a mathematics lecturer I had who completely silenced the class everytime he tried to make a joke. One day he just made a very quick sarcastic comment, without thinking, and the whole class errupted in laugher.

Brown certainly has the academic vibe about him, for good reason - he has the background and is a deep thinker. But he should think back to lecturers he had - everyone has had at least one - who made him cringe when they tried too deliberately to be funny.

The catchphrases. Argh. Little needs to be said on these, I think!

The debates remind me of the sort of interaction one gets with someone who has been on an NLP course, or a big corporate assertion training course.

Brown can win if he focusses on being serious, showing he knows what's going on in the world, has thought about alternatives, and is getting advice from experts who have expertise he doesn't.

While I'm at it, one further thought. Watching people at this level of government relying on single anecdotes to support claims is pretty painful. There must be wider evidence bases for things like education policy, for instance. Sure, illustrate by example, but not just argument by example.

PeterL's picture

Slightly OT, but on the differences between the Taliban and Al-Qaeda I highly recommend the latest post by Adam Curtis on his fantastic blog: http://bit.ly/CzoX6 The absurdity of continuing the war on Afghanistan to rid it of Al-Qaeda, and the labelling of all opposition (in Afghanistan as well as North-West Pakistan) as "Taliban" should by now be clear to all.

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