Star Spangled Staggers

US politics from outside the beltway

Syndicate contentRSS

Niall Ferguson attacks Obama, poorly

The economic historian penned a cover-piece for Newsweek which doesn't show the best grasp of his subject.

New Statesman
Niall Ferguson's Newsweek cover

Niall Ferguson has written the cover story in this week's Newsweek slating Obama for his economic performance, and forcefully arguing against the president's re-election.

Ferguson writes:

In his inaugural address, Obama promised "not only to create new jobs, but to lay a new foundation for growth." He promised to "build the roads and bridges, the electric grids, and digital lines that feed our commerce and bind us together." He promised to "restore science to its rightful place and wield technology’s wonders to raise health care’s quality and lower its cost." And he promised to "transform our schools and colleges and universities to meet the demands of a new age." Unfortunately the president’s scorecard on every single one of those bold pledges is pitiful.

But much of the article reveals that it is Ferguson himself who is pitiful. The people slating him may largely be the usual suspects, but their criticisms still hold.

Noah Smith points out that the very paragraph quoted above, the third in the entire piece, isn't quite accurate:

I'll just quickly note that the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act contained substantial funding for infrastructure. So Ferguson, when he says that Obama has not built infrastructure, is simply asserting something that is not true. In the parlance of my generation, he is "spouting BS".

Paul Krugman, for instance, argues that Ferguson offers "just a plain misrepresentation of the facts" when discussing the effect of healthcare reform.

Ferguson says:

The president pledged that health-care reform would not add a cent to the deficit. But the CBO [Congressional Budget Office, the model for our OBR] and the Joint Committee on Taxation now estimate that the insurance-coverage provisions of the ACA will have a net cost of close to $1.2 trillion over the 2012–22 period.

The passage reads as though Ferguson is saying that the CBO thinks Obamacare adds to the deficit, when in fact they say the exact opposite; the insurance-coverage provisions cost money, but they are funded by other measures in the act. It's difficult to work out whether Ferguson is deliberately misleading or just mistaken, but either way he's wrong.

Similar weirdness happens with his arguments over America's comparative performance. He writes:

The failures of leadership on economic and fiscal policy over the past four years have had geopolitical consequences. The World Bank expects the U.S. to grow by just 2 percent in 2012. China will grow four times faster than that; India three times faster. By 2017, the International Monetary Fund predicts, the GDP of China will overtake that of the United States.

Illustrated with this chart:

Both Matt Yglesias and Joe Weisenthal pointed out that it's a tad unfair to blame Obama for the fact that the BRICS are growing faster than America.

Yglesias writes:

Ferguson is implicitly making two points with this graphic and it's difficult to know which of them is more absurd—the idea that Obama is responsible for rapid economic growth in China or the idea that if he were responsible that would be blameworthy.

And Weisenthal adds:

It even hits Obama for stuff like this, which seems totally inevitable at some point, regardless of who is President.

Weisenthal also focuses on Ferguson's shoddy prior record when it comes to economic forecasting, concluding:

Bottom line: Ferguson has made some big calls about economic collapse ever since Obama took over. As he declares that Obama has been a failure, note that those own calls in recent years have been off the mark.

Of course, as Paul Cotterill wrote last week for the New Statesman, Niall Ferguson isn't actually the best economic writer around. Or really that good at all. Discussing his Newsweek article on the Indian blackouts, Cotterill concludes:

For Ferguson simply to set the long term consequences of colonialism to one side, in favour of a simplistic view of why India is where it is now - a paradox not of its own making - confirms his fall from decent historian to celebrity charlatan, interested more in soundbite opportunity than in real economics and history.

Just a week on, it seems Ferguson has proved that suspicion correct.

Update, 17:55:

Ferguson has responded to Krugman's criticism with an excuse which boils down to "I didn't lie, I deliberately mislead my readers!". 

He writes:

I very deliberately said “the insurance coverage provisions of the ACA,” not “the ACA.” There is a big difference.

Brad DeLong, at least, is not having it:

The "But" at the start of the second sentence in the quote tells readers two things: (i) that Obama has violated his pledge--that he promised that the ACA would not increase the deficit, but that it did--and (ii) that the rest of the second sentence will explain how Obama violated his pledge. . .

Now comes Ferguson to tell us that he lied.

Now comes Ferguson to tell us that his "But" at the start of the second sentence in the quote is completely, totally, and deliberately false. . .

And his only excuse--now, it's not an excuse for the lie, it's a "I can lie cleverly" boast--is: "I very deliberately said 'the insurance coverage provisions of the ACA', not 'the ACA'".

Fire his ass.

Fire his ass from Newsweek, and the Daily Beast.

Convene a committee at Harvard to examine whether he has the moral character to teach at a university.

There is a limit, somewhere. And Ferguson has gone beyond it.

19 comments

Benjamin Rae's picture

He's ridiculous. Watched a few of his civilisation programmes and thought he could have a career as a contortionist with how twisted his account was. Heard a bit of those lectures and thought he sounded demented.
He is dragging Harvard's name through the mud with his ramblings.

AT's picture

yes, he is. he also predicted in newsweek that Obama team would come up some stuff to manipulate the election to move to their favor because in no other circumstances Obama can win the elections. if they did not that would surprise him as if he has a magic globe! his academic objectivity is totally obscured with his irrational political view. i still don't understand how he can be a professor at harvard, but then there are some other people just like him there, which explains the recent downward trends in its credibility, hence, decline in popularity in college applications...

SaintKilda 's picture

Ferguson's recent Reith Lectures amounted to an embarrasing bore. Surely no need to listen to him any further.....

SaintKilda 's picture

Ferguson's recent Reith Lectures amounted to an embarrasing bore. Surely no need to listen to him any further.....

G Wislang's picture

Does anyone, apart from Harvard University, take Ferguson seriously these days.
Long ago ago, someone once said he made a "decent" historian.
That was presumably in the days when he kept his pants on.

Lucidus's picture

The UK line in the graph is an eye-opener. It's near as dammit horizontal, showing minimal growth between 2009 and 2017.

rokkitman's picture

Ferguson is a media whore, and getting all this attention is the reason he wrote the piece. The best thing you could do for his Limbaugh Envy is to ignore him.

Will Podmore's picture

Niall Ferguson is to history what Mel Gibson is to acting.

Barbassa's picture

You have a point! Very sad in both cases.....

Lopaka's picture

How typical.....Libs can't handle the truth. Gee....Why did it take Obama,the MOST transparent pres. EVER, TWO MONTHS to have a WH presser?? What's Obama HIDING?????

B. Real's picture

Because NOT holding a White House press conference is hiding something?!

Oh man, how do they get any dumber?

Murali's picture

Fergusson history is bad- he is just obssed with empires. His economics just stinks- cut the taxes on the richs to 0.8 rate, economy will grow. It is such a woo woo economics.

Lawrence Osborne's picture

Rather lame piece, alas - long on name-calling, short on any real substance. Where does Ferguson argue that Obama "caused" rapid Chinese growth? He is bemoaning America's inability to respond to it. Is he wrong? Overall, he is right about some things. Funds may have been earmarked for infrastructure but virtually nothing has been actually built. Dems may claim that insurance liabilities are "funded," but they are not and never will be - the debt increases inexorably year by year, and as Larry Summers once quipped off the records "We are home alone. There's no adult home." There is NO plan on the other side that means anything. None.

John Cheese's picture

Ha. obama introducted Obamacare/Obamatax under false cost pretenses, projecting the program cost over a 6 year budget window rather than he standard 10 year window, to "sell" the program for needed congressional votes. The new CBO revised 10 yr program costs are now $1.76 trillion, about double the cost. Honestly, if nationalized care is so great, why can't it's proponents be honest about it?

RH47's picture

Obama's term in office has been marked by a modesty of achievement - but that underperformane is due to the influence of ideologies espoused by Ferguson.

It is one of the wonders of the modern world how Ferguson ever rose to such prominent insignificance. On the other hand ... look around for the dominance of other examples of the same species.

Jessie T's picture

Really disappointing critique. Depressingly I will have to include this statement in order to be able to have people read my argument: I am not a fan of Ferguson.

Coterrill's discussion about Ferguson on Colonialism could not be less relevant to the current issue of Obama. Even if it was how can you take a soundbite quote and use it to attack someone on the assertion that they themselves are just about soundbites.

Ferguson might be incorrect but I am fed up of reading about how wrong he is with such simplistic arguements. The simplicity he is accused of is actually a trait of his attackers. It is easy to write in what is essentially a bad undergraduate essay for the new statesman.

Weisenthal's critique is also largely irrelevant as Ferguson is discussing longer term implications of fiscal policy not the short term fluctuations. In fact on issues such as debt and the social contract between generations he addresses a point that i am ashamed to say the left has buried their head in the sand towards. Socialism is not socialism if it is paid for by your children's children.

AT's picture

if you think ferguson's critics here are simplistic, you should read his articles in newsweek!

hugh markey's picture

Please do not use that old piece of advice and judge Niall Ferguson by the friends he keeps.

Cardinal Sin

hugh markey's picture

Please do not use that old piece of advice and judge Niall Ferguson by the friends he keeps.

Cardinal Sin

Latest tweets