Who will Rhodri share his new toys with?

Labour may be feeling gloomy about the Scottish elections but in Wales it's a rather different story

THE prospect of a Scottish showdown between Gordon Brown and Alex Salmond has, understandably, prompted acres of excitable newspaper coverage south of the border, but 200 miles west of Whitehall another election contest has been meandering along, almost un-noticed.

Anyone who has followed the Scottish campaign, will, if they suddenly switch their attention to the Welsh Assembly poll, immediately recognised the carefully, complex choreography that the party leaders are engaged in. In Wales, as in Scotland, coalition politics is here to stay, and who’s flirting with whom is a key theme of the election.

There’s one key difference between these Celtic elections, though – in Wales there is no prospect of anyone other than Labour, led by the idiosyncratic but popular Rhodri Morgan, being the largest party.

They currently hold 29 of the 60 seats, and most pundits, me included, expected them to get 24-25 this time around.

That means deals need to be done when the results are in. Most likely is a Lab-Lib coalition, although the prospect of a Lab-Plaid Cymru arrangement has also been floated, sending sparks flying within both parties. An outside bet is a Plaid-Tory-Lib Dem coalition, which would represent a political earthquake requiring a new scale to measure it.

The prospect of the Tories in Government, albeit working with others, has been used by Labour to try to frighten its core voters into turning up on May 3. Plaid have thrown a spanner in the works, however, by insisting they wouldn’t serve as a junior partner to the Tories.

The fight for second place, therefore, takes on added significance. Early polls pointed to a Tory revival, with a mix of the Cameron effect and the Welsh Tories’ re-positioning as a pro-devolution party helping to put them ahead of Plaid. But more recent surveys show Plaid – who, for once, have some money to burn – back ahead.

All this coalition talk risks turning off voters, of course - after all, likes being taken for granted. Despite their habit of telling pollsters they do like devolution, only 38% of Welsh people turned out to vote in 2003. This year the figure may creep up, but not by much.

Surveying the scene on May 4 will be Mr Morgan, the Labour leader who has been left largely to do his own thing in office, and his own thing in the campaign. A long-standing proponent of a Scottish-style parliament, he’ll have more powers in a new, half-way house system after the election. But who’ll he choose to share his new toys with? We’ll have to wait and see.

Tomos Livingstone is Political Editor of the Western Mail. Raised in Pembrokeshire he studied at LSE before going into journalism.
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Why is Labour surging in Wales?

A new poll suggests Labour will not be going gently into that good night. 

Well where did that come from? The first two Welsh opinion polls of the general election campaign had given the Conservatives all-time high levels of support, and suggested that they were on course for an historic breakthrough in Wales. For Labour, in its strongest of all heartlands where it has won every general election from 1922 onwards, this year had looked like a desperate rear-guard action to defend as much of what they held as possible.

But today’s new Welsh Political Barometer poll has shaken things up a bit. It shows Labour support up nine percentage points in a fortnight, to 44 percent. The Conservatives are down seven points, to 34 per cent. Having been apparently on course for major losses, the new poll suggests that Labour may even be able to make ground in Wales: on a uniform swing these figures would project Labour to regain the Gower seat they narrowly lost two years ago.

There has been a clear trend towards Labour in the Britain-wide polls in recent days, while the upwards spike in Conservative support at the start of the campaign has also eroded. Nonetheless, the turnaround in fortunes in Wales appears particularly dramatic. After we had begun to consider the prospect of a genuinely historic election, this latest reading of the public mood suggests something much more in line with the last century of Welsh electoral politics.

What has happened to change things so dramatically? One possibility is always that this is simply an outlier – the "rogue poll" that basic sampling theory suggests will happen every now and then. As us psephologists are often required to say, "it’s just one poll". It may also be, as has been suggested by former party pollster James Morris, that Labour gains across Britain are more apparent than real: a function of a rise in the propensity of Labour supporters to respond to polls.

But if we assume that the direction of change shown by this poll is correct, even if the exact magnitude may not be, what might lie behind this resurgence in Labour’s fortunes in Wales?

One factor may simply be Rhodri Morgan. Sampling for the poll started on Thursday last week – less than a day after the announcement of the death of the much-loved former First Minister. Much of Welsh media coverage of politics in the days since has, understandably, focused on sympathetic accounts of Mr Morgan’s record and legacy. It would hardly be surprising if that had had some positive impact on the poll ratings of Rhodri Morgan’s party – which, we should note, are up significantly in this new poll not only for the general election but also in voting intentions for the Welsh Assembly. If this has played a role, such a sympathy factor is likely to be short-lived: by polling day, people’s minds will probably have refocussed on the electoral choice ahead of them.

But it could also be that Labour’s campaign in Wales is working. While Labour have been making modest ground across Britain, in Wales there has been a determined effort by the party to run a separate campaign from that of the UK-wide party, under the "Welsh Labour" brand that carried them to victory in last year’s devolved election and this year’s local council contests. Today saw the launch of the Welsh Labour manifesto. Unlike two years ago, when the party’s Welsh manifesto was only a modestly Welshed-up version of the UK-wide document, the 2017 Welsh Labour manifesto is a completely separate document. At the launch, First Minister Carwyn Jones – who, despite not being a candidate in this election is fronting the Welsh Labour campaign – did not even mention Jeremy Corbyn.

Carwyn Jones also represented Labour at last week’s ITV-Wales debate – in contrast to 2015, when Labour’s spokesperson was then Shadow Welsh Secretary Owen Smith. Jones gave an effective performance, being probably the best performer alongside Plaid Cymru’s Leanne Wood. In fact, Wood was also a participant in the peculiar, May-less and Corbyn-less, ITV debate in Manchester last Thursday, where she again performed capably. But her party have as yet been wholly unable to turn this public platform into support. The new Welsh poll shows Plaid Cymru down to merely nine percent. Nor are there any signs yet that the election campaign is helping the Liberal Democrats - their six percent support in the new Welsh poll puts them, almost unbelievably, at an even lower level than they secured in the disastrous election of two year ago.

This is only one poll. And the more general narrowing of the polls across Britain will likely lead to further intensification, by the Conservatives and their supporters in the press, of the idea of the election as a choice between Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn as potential Prime Ministers. Even in Wales, this contrast does not play well for Labour. But parties do not dominate the politics of a nation for nearly a century, as Labour has done in Wales, just by accident. Under a strong Conservative challenge they certainly are, but Welsh Labour is not about to go gently into that good night.

Roger Scully is Professor of Political Science in the Wales Governance Centre at Cardiff University.

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