US jobs figures far below estimates

Manufacturing growth also slows

The US jobs figures are in, and they aren't particularly great. 69,000 new jobs were created, whereas the consensus estimate had been 150,000. Further downward revisions for the last two months, as well:

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for March was revised from +154,000 to +143,000, and the change for April was revised from +115,000 to +77,000.

In fact, the revisions downwards are almost more damaging. The first estimate for May being bad is the headline news, but may be inaccurate; the fact that the March estimates are still being revised downwards in the third estimate hints at real damage to the underlying structure of the economy which has yet to be resolved.

The news pushed the US bond market, already at a ridiculously weak level, lower still, finishing at 1.46:

One silver lining for the US is that manufacturing data, in contrast to the UK, is holding up. The PMI, released today, stands at 54. Although down from 56 last month, any number above 50 indicates that the sector is expanding.

Chris Williamson, Markit's chief economist, said:

The data compares well with PMI surveys for other countries, and suggests that the U.S. economy is showing encouraging resilience in the face of the many headwinds from abroad. The slower growth in May was largely due to a near-stagnation of export orders, reflecting deteriorating demand in many overseas markets, notably the Eurozone but also emerging markets such as China.

A job seeker fills out an application during a job fair hosted by the State of New York. Photograph: Getty Images

Alex Hern is a technology reporter for the Guardian. He was formerly staff writer at the New Statesman. You should follow Alex on Twitter.

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How Theresa May laid a trap for herself on the immigration target

When Home Secretary, she insisted on keeping foreign students in the figures – causing a headache for herself today.

When Home Secretary, Theresa May insisted that foreign students should continue to be counted in the overall immigration figures. Some cabinet colleagues, including then Business Secretary Vince Cable and Chancellor George Osborne wanted to reverse this. It was economically illiterate. Current ministers, like the Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson, Chancellor Philip Hammond and Home Secretary Amber Rudd, also want foreign students exempted from the total.

David Cameron’s government aimed to cut immigration figures – including overseas students in that aim meant trying to limit one of the UK’s crucial financial resources. They are worth £25bn to the UK economy, and their fees make up 14 per cent of total university income. And the impact is not just financial – welcoming foreign students is diplomatically and culturally key to Britain’s reputation and its relationship with the rest of the world too. Even more important now Brexit is on its way.

But they stayed in the figures – a situation that, along with counterproductive visa restrictions also introduced by May’s old department, put a lot of foreign students off studying here. For example, there has been a 44 per cent decrease in the number of Indian students coming to Britain to study in the last five years.

Now May’s stubbornness on the migration figures appears to have caught up with her. The Times has revealed that the Prime Minister is ready to “soften her longstanding opposition to taking foreign students out of immigration totals”. It reports that she will offer to change the way the numbers are calculated.

Why the u-turn? No 10 says the concession is to ensure the Higher and Research Bill, key university legislation, can pass due to a Lords amendment urging the government not to count students as “long-term migrants” for “public policy purposes”.

But it will also be a factor in May’s manifesto pledge (and continuation of Cameron’s promise) to cut immigration to the “tens of thousands”. Until today, ministers had been unclear about whether this would be in the manifesto.

Now her u-turn on student figures is being seized upon by opposition parties as “massaging” the migration figures to meet her target. An accusation for which May only has herself, and her steadfast politicising of immigration, to blame.

Anoosh Chakelian is senior writer at the New Statesman.

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