Recession deniers proved wrong
Our economics editor gives his verdict.
By David Blanchflower Published 24 May 2012 13:14
So the recession deniers were wrong again. As I predicted, rather than GDP growth for the first quarter of 2012 being revised up it was actually revised down by the ONS today from -0.2 per cent to -0.3 per cent. Output in the production industries was -0.4 per cent, manufacturing was flat while services grew by+0.1 per cent while construction was -4.8 per cent. The fall in construction is very serious and, according to a report of the Bank of England's agents this week, "in large part due to declining work for the public sector".
Over the last six quarters that I have called the Osborne Collapse the economy has shrunk by -0.4 per cent. He inherited an economy for Alastair Darling that grew by 3.1 per cent over the preceding four quarters. Here's the chart. Four of the last six were negative:

There is every prospect that the next quarter will be negative also even if the euro area doesn't implode. If it does things will be much worse.
David Cameron in a speech on the economy on the 17 May 2012 said:
"Despite headwinds from the Eurozone, we are on track...We are moving in the right direction.
This is total balderdash. The economy is tanking and the coalition appears totally lost on what to do about it and they still don't have a growth plan. Saying they have a Plan A doesn't do it. We are now paying the price for them not having or implementing a plan B.
Today is the time to do three things:
- Cut VAT to 17.5 per cent.
- Cut National Insurance on anyone under 25 to zero for two years.
- Announce a program of £50bn of infrastructure spending on shovel ready projects. Local authorities can bid for the money for any project already through the planning process. The Monetary Policy Committee can fund it via Quantitative Easing.
It really is time for the cabinet to start working hard.
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45 comments
Does anyone have an opinion on the declining US economy? Has the huge simplistic stimulus (and enormous borrowing) help them ... even a little bit?
They would have been better off to have saved the money, cut the state, allowed the economy dependent on the state to contract and then leveraged the ensuing improvement in competitivenss of labor to create wealth producing jobs. They could have used strategic QE to support critical areas of the economy and should have raised sales taxes to progressively lower the cost of labour and create jobs for those who do not have them . Oh dear I am sounding like a Tory Troll.
Borrow, spend and print more money is obviously going to result in better short term economic figures, but where will borrowing and spending get us in the long term? The lesson for the next generation so far is clear, borrow and spend, don't be sensible with your money and the system will favour you.
Oh look, more insight from our resident economics expert.
If Bozo555 took the time to actual read up on the economic data that gets churned out, he would see revenues ( another important factor magically ignored ) actually declining.
We have seen revenues from VAT, Income Tax and Corporation Tax come in lower over the last few months, meaning the government actually borrowing more.
When you kill the recovery and put the economy into recession, despite having two bouts of QE, you are going to have to borrow.
It seems chump isn't familiar with words like " Income" or " Receipts "
Bozo555 also missed the CBI Manufacturing Survey released this week, showing domestic orders in decline. Orders for exporters are holding up, so if he is stupid enough to blame a " Worldwide Economic Problem " or " Eurozone issues " he would be better served to not going down that path.
What did New Labour blame for the credit crunch again?
How about defending your original comment Cretin?
Don't you understand what happens if revenues decline?
Didn't you understand the explanation of why government's borrow? It is not down to spending, I appreciate you have swallowed the conservative narrative of spend, spend, spend without looking at the whole picture.
But again, why has domestic demand for manufactured goods declining?
Fox , I'm not going to take lectures from you about defending posts given your track record. I've fully exlained my thinking in previous posts, why can't you answer what effect the tripling of house prices had on the poor and low paid?
Yes you are buddy boy, try swinging back to your original comment.
Your thinking, what thinking is this chump?
You talk about borrowing and spending, and tragically fail to explain why government's actual borrow.
Governments of all political persuaion have to borrow if tax receipts fall, didn't you get the email cretin?
What happens if spending more doesn't result in the sustained recovery we're hoping for? How much more QE should we have on top of the hundreds of billions we've already had? How long should rates remain at all time lows? And what effect do you think the tripling of house prices had on the economy, consumer debt levels and the ability of the poor/low paid to buy houses?
I know you are thick Bozo555, but please remember what you have written, it does help.
Lets examine your words, hell, you might understand what you have written.
" The lesson for the next generation so far is clear, borrow and spend "
Again you seem to fail to understand what has been written by you. You are dishonestly trying to say that spending is the only link to borrowing. With you being a total wally brain, has it never occurred to you, that government revenues have the ability to decline.
Are you trying to tell me government revenues, both month on month, and year on year cannot decline, is that what you are trying to tell me?
So Fox, no answers, and more insults. The lessons I am talking about are for the next generation i.e. consumers, people who borrow and spend get all the help through monetary policy, people who take out big mortgages etc. It's not surprising you get confused if you don't even know whose posts you're reading.
I'm not sure what you have against my opposition to high house prices and high debt levels, it's very strange. Why don't you try explaining your posts for a change?
The lesson, well it is not economics, more economic entertainment.
I am confused, so you now are saying to me, the original comments talked about consumers, not government. Strange how it has taken days for you to come up with the " new " argument, why is that?
But let go through initial comments , not what you are trying to rewrite.
Borrow, spend and print more money is obviously going to result in better short term economic figures, but where will borrowing and spending get us in the long term?
Sorry Bozo555, all this talk, is about the actions of government, and how it influences consumers.
If you actual understood, that government's borrows when revenues drop, not solely the domain of spending.
I'm not surprised you're confused Fox if you don't even think there was a house price boom during New Labours period in power, even the Trend In Real House Prices figures seem to confuse you.
I haven't re-written anything. I notice you've failed again to answer anything yourself.
That okay Bozo555, first you ignore you initial rant, now you are not prepared to defend your latest " theory"
I see I have failed, of course, you only borrow because you spending, it has nothing to do with declines in revenues.
Not really the definition of success chump.
No Fox, I stand by my initial comments, funny comments coming from you. My record of explaining my posts makes yours look pitiful. I don't duck basic questions repeatedly either.
What effect did you think the tripling of house prices had on the poor and low paid , consumer debt, and the health of the economy? It's strange that you haven't answered.
And do you seriously think all time low interest rates don't have a supportive
effect on house prices? Do you also not think high interest rates have a negative effect on house prices? Hopefully you'll answer something one day.
You are standing by your initial comments, not really Bozo555. As usual, they seem to have magically changed. One minute your ranting about borrowing being the fault of spending, the next minute, it was a discussion about consumer economics.
If you only understood economics Bozo555, it would help you avoid so many self inflicted howlers.
Ok Fox, I notice you have no answers just insults as ever. My comments haven't changed, it's your interpretation which is confused.
You keep saying I lie and post howlers, yet can't provide any credible examples. Remember the Trend In Real House Prices figures you used to try and ridicule me with? Is that your idea of understanding economics? You disappeared when I pointed out what the figures actually meant.
I also see you've disappeared from the topic where you're ridiculing me again for saying low rates are helping prop house prices up, check out the figures I posted up from Nationwide. It's hard to argue in the face of fact isn't it?
I see insults is it now, you rant away, failing to understand that declining revenues can result in increased government borrowing.
If you want to peddle a dishonest narrative that government's borrow solely because of spending, go ahead and be a wally brain.
You have point blank refused to rebut my argument, that when revenues declines, government's have to borrow.
Just remind me why we see house prices decline on a monthly basis, and year on year,during a time when we have 0.5% interest rates?
It is a shame your facts are like you, twp faced.
Fox, you've come to that conclusion yourself so you can argue it with yourself as well.
On the house price front you're on to a loser there. Here are the Nationwide stats again seeing as you disappeared from the last thread I posted them on, remember house prices were in freefall in 2008:
2009: House prices RISE 5.9%
2010: House prices RISE 0.4%
2011: House prices RISE 1.0%
And only down slightly in 2012 so far.
If that's not enough here's some more stats from the DCLG:
2009: House prices RISE 2.9%
2010: House prices RISE 3.8%
2011: House prices RISE 0.1%
2012: House prices up 0.7% in January and Average house price a whopping £206,523
I'd say that house prices were propped up judging by the facts. I don't think I'm the one making myself look silly. I wonder if you'll disappear as usual now I've proven myself correct yet again in the face of your pitiful ridicule.
Really Bozo555, no rebuttal then old chap, is your caps lock on the blink?
Are you able to write rise in lower case.
Don't you understand words like " declining revenues "
You look silly on a hourly basis, that is why your mother still feeds you and your consumption of beverage is out of a sippy cup.
I see you using the Department of Communities and Local Government stats, why is that, you want to inflate your argument?
Why have you never used the DCLG before,are you that desperate?
Lets me starting using facts old chap.
Nationwide House price index average house price £166,022
Please explain you didn't want to mention the Nationwide average house price?
http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/default.htm
Land Registry House price index £160417
http://www.landregistry.gov.uk/
Thanks for showing how desperate you are, it is highly amusing.
I see you have no answers, I have proven myself correct, it is clear house prices have been propped up and all you can do is talk about my use of CAPS lock, that's what I call desperate. I wrote in CAPS to make it clear to you what happened because you don't seem to understand. I used the DCLG to back my point up further, which it does.
I see you're trying to pick non existent holes in my argument instead of carrying on with your initial ridicule, which I have shown up for what it is. Let's use the Nationwide average house price as well if you like, £166,022 or the Land Reg £160417 , still very high. That's a lot of times the average salary, do you not think that is a lot of money for the average house?
What effect do you think the tripling of house prices had on the low paid and their ability to buy homes to raise a family in? You cannot answer.
Unanswered question after unanswered question.
Oh look another house price index under two hundred thousand Bozo555.
http://www.moneysavingexpert.com/news/mortgages/2012/04/halifax-house-pr...
Strange that isn't Bozo555, how all the indexes I find are well below his index.
So that's no answers again, no surprises there. Pick any index you like Fox it doesn't matter, you're flapping again because I've proven myself correct, prices are still high you cannot deny that or can you? You can't even answer a simple question and you are going nowhere with this argument.
You yes it does chump, three major indexes well the below the one you wanted to talk about, surprise surprise.
I take it the Halifax wasn't whopping enough cretin?
Flapping around, no, more like shooting your argument down.
Better luck next time chump.
Sorry Mike for butting in.
I just had to point out Foxy is completely full of la merde.
Matt - pls could you explain your numerous previous posting about US using borrowing to boost their economy and how it had saved their economy? Look now - they have the massive - Labour style - extra debt and a sliding underlying economy.
The UK has been kept safe from Labour and --- whey hey --- structural deficit is falling and the underlying economy (ignoring the GDP due to output of the state) is growing.
Are you going to eat your words "If you want to peddle a dishonest narrative that government's borrow solely because of spending, go ahead and be a wally brain". Perhaps not ... some governements borrow solely because of spending INORDER TO win votes. But you know that even if your friends keep it a secrete from you.
Fox, I've proven myself correct using an index you've used yourself, plus another one, and you're still at it. I'm using the wrong kind of facts now am I? You're arguing for the sake of it.
Take any index, prices are still high. I will continue to show up your pitiful ridicule, if you think it will stop me from posting you will be disappointed.
Come on Bozo555, the wrong kind of facts?
I appreciate you are dim, as usual it is a case of what is missing. For some reason, you decided the quote the Department of Communities and Local Government house price index.
Until now, you have never ever mention the DCLG, fact or fiction Bozo555.
The three indexes I have mentioned, have all come in at least 15% lower then then DCLG figures, how very convenient.
I am very disappointed in you on a daily basis, your evasion, your " All I Said "
your " I type too fast "
Why haven't you asked Prof Blanchflower why the consumer confidence survey and retail sales declined in Apr 12?
I leave the ridiculing to your good self Bozo555, your a past master.
I used the Nationwide stats to prove myself correct, an index you've used, plus another one, there is no pleasing you whatever stats I use. This is desperate ridicule, if people can't mention anything they've mentioned before no one would say anything.
So when you say prices dropped in 2010 and 2011 which stats are you using?
So is that yet another big fat no, your not prepared to tell me why decided to usedthe Department of Communities and Local Government index?
Strange how the other 3 indexes coming in at a whopping 15% lower.
No pleasing me, I know Bozo555, it is you lack of honesty, with comments like " All I Said" and " I type too fast "
When are you going to ask Prof Blanchflower why the consumer confidence and retail sales declined in Apr 12?
That's pitiful Fox, I've already told you, I used it to illustrate my point up further, use any index you like, funny comments coming from you who can't answer basic questions.
Whatever you say you can't change the fact that house prices tripled under New Labour which had an adverse effect on many peoples lives.
illustrating are we Bozo555, like Rolf Harris?
Changing the facts? What an hilarious statement. Your point, that you are inbred?
Again lets go back to me comment, until very recent you have never used the DCLG index, but you being you, decided to use a index that is a " whopping " 15% higher then other 3 indexes.
What other indexes have you got in store?
Dismal. You're arguing against facts. There's no getting away from the tripling of house prices under New Labour however much you try and deflect the points I make.
Recovering from a major financial crash and three decades of irresponsible government spending was always going to take a long time. Whatever this government does, there's no way that any policymakers can cure the patient's disease in the short term. At best, they can reduce the fever, but if they make the wrong moves, the fever will only get progressively worse. The underlying UK economic problem is there is very little wealth creation. Successive UK governments thought they could remove manufacturing and replace it with cheap far eastern imports. The economy would survive of the financial service industries. That’s all well and good for Chinese capitalist and importers and warehouse owners but disastrous for the school leaver and the unemployed. The only answer is to invest again in manufacturing to increase job opportunities and exports. If the Germans can produce quality goods at a competitive price that sell in overseas markets, why can't British companies? The problem is our manufactures obsession with quality not quantity, we need and can have both. The role of the state is to facilitate business and provide and maintain infrastructure. Not to become a job creators in its own right. We need a vibrate and competitive private sector in order to afford our public services. The previous Labour government’s near total disregard for manufacturing, combined with its featherbedding of a grotesquely bloated public sector nearly brought this country to the point of bankruptcies. Before we start the blame game and point the accusing finger. Where is the lefts economic alterative to responsible government? What would Labour be doing differently? Those within the Labour party who call for more government borrowing and an end to responsible government, those that call for a massive increase in the government payroll, are deluding themselves. When the treasure chest in empty a more imaginative and innovative ways are required to stimulate grow: tax and squander are no longer an option.
"Osborne Collapse" - very apt.
Oh David.
"He inherited an economy for Alastair Darling that grew by 3.1 per cent "
Yet again... you know what Im going to say ... yet again you omit that tiny little detail of the £600Bn that the last government borrowed to pay for growth and votes. And the tiny little detail of the enormous structural deficit which underpinned the fiscal expansion.
Today is the time to do three things:
1. Raise VAT to 22.5 per cent. Hypothicate the money progressively to reducing the cost of labor (reduce PAYE and NI for the least well paid. Cut corporation tax as we have been so slow at this the rest of the World is overtaking us on CT rate cuts). This will create jobs and enhance the UK's appauling fiscal multiplier. An indirect benefit will be that the stimulus of funding the deficit will be more efficient i.e. it will reduce the structural element of the deficit.
2. Cut National Insurance on anyone under 25 to zero for two years. = YEP. I'm with you.
3. Announce a program of £50bn of infrastructure spending on shovel ready projects. Local authorities can bid for the money for any project already through the planning process. The Monetary Policy Committee can fund it via Quantitative Easing. YEP. I'm with you. QE will reduce sterling and improve the relative competitiveness of labor.
The 5% differential in VAT of a rise is substantiall and the cash collected would allow more rapid and more substantil in roads into taking people out of the tax system altogether. It would penalise imports and give relative advantage to exports : i.e. a VAT rise would create more jobs compared to a VAT cut.
If QE is injected into the ecomony, higher VAT is needed to mitigate asset inflation (this is complicated to ecplain but you understand)
I dont accept your proposition that a VAT cut would create as beneficial a stimulus as using the money to reduce labor costs instead. Cutting workforce jobs would both redistribute wealth and extend demand for UK labor. i.e. Cutting VAT will destroy jobs in the medium term because it encourages imports. We saw from the last VAT cut that it did not work - the outcomes was as I describe it.
Doesn't sound like a good idea to me to increase VAT. In fact utter nonsense. Taking the poorest out of tax system to compensate does nothing for them as any gain will be oiffset byt a regressive VAT. Further, the poor don't have the spending power to promote growth as most of their income goes on neccesities not consumer goods, products and services that will create job. In effect all that would happen would be the squeezed middle would be squeezed even further, reducing expenditure and excaserbating the problem.
You have missed the point.
Reducing the cost of employing people by cutting employment taxes will stimulate demand for them. It will allow businesses to pay less and employ more people.
Cutting payroll taxes needs paying for. Raising VAT does this and the money can be used to compensate the lowest paid. You are wrong that a fiscally neutral VAT increase would be regressive.
Although fiscally neutral, raising VAT to pay to reduce labor costs would result in increase demand for labor and more jobs - it would stimulate growth.
VAT is an input tarrif. High VAT discourages people importing and encourges home produced goods and exporters.
But it does not win short term votes so Labour would not support it even though it is progressive.
In regards to VAT, I doubt the government will increase it as Labour will have a field day, an already unpopular government will try at all cost not to rock the boat anymore.
It will not be reduced because Labour will have a field day but as you have indicated, it's only a short term measure which seems to be Labour's policy. ie. borrow more money to ease the burden on families in the short term to gain votes and confidence from the electorate with no sight of the long term benefits and the goal of stability.
But to add to this, even if the VAT was slashed, consumer confidence is at an all time low, people are paying off their credit cards and saving money rather than spending it and it's the mindset that will be hard to reverse. Throughout the last decade people have been conned into thinking that prosperity will never end hence Browns 'no more boom bust', encouraged to spend spend spend, however the truth has hit home. Labour were wrong, they contributed to this mess, Labour and Balls cannot be trusted with the economy. Time for them to have a massive reshuffle, out with the old, out with Milliband.
Therefore I think keeping it at 20% is the only sensible option for the govt.
Quite.
It would be interesting to know what does David Blancflower thinks will happen within the Eurozone. Another article pelase.
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So much for the mess they inherited from Labour. The opposite is true. They inherited a recovering economy and promptly stuck the boot into it.
The last government borrowed £600Bn. The was no magic Darling growth - take away the growth of the public sector and the real economy was shrinking e.g. under Labour UK industry shrank at its fastest rate since the 1970's.
Out of interest, how much do you propose borrowing?
Out of interest Inastew, really, didn't you get the email, the country is in recession.
Since May 2010, the country hasn't grown at all, why is that? Plan A promised annualised growth of 2.8%
Matt
Dont you get it . Full Stop.
The economy was in recession under Labour from early in the last decade. The growth in GDP numbers was due to growth of the state squeezing the private sector out of the market for resources. It was a big disaster.
So what did New Labour blame the Euro crisis on and credit crisis on?
Go Fox, dare you, tell me how much New Labour would borrow to put everything right?
BTW Congratulations on your hero Tony Blair being a good God Father for the Murdochs.
I certainly get it Inastew.
My hero Tony Blair, I thought Gordon Brown was my hero, is that another U-turn chalked up by you.
The economy is in recession Inastew, please remember that, Osborne killed the recovery and handed the country negative growth.
Didn't Plan A guarantee economic growth?
http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/286728/George-Osborne-There-will-be-...
I hereby call for a vote of no-confidence in the "government".