The credit crunch continues

We are still experiencing a crunch in credit - when will it end?

The financial crisis, which began in 2007, is often described as the "credit crunch". The evidence, however, is that the crunch in credit only really began in 2009 and shows no sign of abating.

For many the financial crisis became real when queues of depositors were filmed outside Northern Rock on 14th September 2007. However, Bank of England credit data reveals that the credit crunch really began in the middle of 2009 and in a very dramatic fashion. It was then that many sectors of the British economy witnessed such a dramatic fall in credit that nearly three years on credit levels remain significantly below their peak.

Credit in many sectors fell off a cliff edge in the second quarter of 2009 after years of continual growth. The sectors in the table above all witnessed dramatic falls in credit in the middle of 2009, although real estate saw a more pronounced fall about a year later.

What is even more worrying is the fact that, in many sectors, credit levels have continued to fall.

The data in table 2 begins where that of table 1 finished and gives bimonthly credit figures from March 2011 to March 2012. Credit in these four key sectors has continued to fall. Of most concern are the falls in credit to manufacturing and financial intermediation firms. The manufacturing sector produces the majority of Britain’s goods exports and firms in this sector rely on credit to invest in capital. Furthermore, trade credit helps firms reach foreign markets. The fall in credit to firms involved in financial intermediation is both a symptom and a cause of the problem and is evidence of the weaknesses that continue to plague the British banking system.

The final table indicates the severity of the credit crunch. Interestingly the crunch that began in the middle of 2009 was of a similar magnitude to the contraction in credit since the end of 2010. The data suggests that, far from the crunch relaxing, it continues and with previous falls the problem is compounded.

The picture is not the same for all sectors; lending to individuals secured on the value of property or similar asset has returned to, and in fact risen beyond, pre-crisis levels. The hotels and restaurants sector did not witness a significant fall in credit during the crisis. Nevertheless credit constraints continue to affect many important sectors of the British economy and there is little indication that this situation will change any time soon. Given this, it is hard to argue that the worst is behind us.

What time is it? Time to make it easier to get credit. Photograph: Getty Images

Selling Circuits Short: Improving the prospects of the British electronics industry by Stephen L. Clarke and Georgia Plank was released yesterday by Civitas. It is available on PDF and Amazon Kindle

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Voters are turning against Brexit but the Lib Dems aren't benefiting

Labour's pro-Brexit stance is not preventing it from winning the support of Remainers. Will that change?

More than a year after the UK voted for Brexit, there has been little sign of buyer's remorse. The public, including around a third of Remainers, are largely of the view that the government should "get on with it".

But as real wages are squeezed (owing to the Brexit-linked inflationary spike) there are tentative signs that the mood is changing. In the event of a second referendum, an Opinium/Observer poll found, 47 per cent would vote Remain, compared to 44 per cent for Leave. Support for a repeat vote is also increasing. Forty one per cent of the public now favour a second referendum (with 48 per cent opposed), compared to 33 per cent last December. 

The Liberal Democrats have made halting Brexit their raison d'être. But as public opinion turns, there is no sign they are benefiting. Since the election, Vince Cable's party has yet to exceed single figures in the polls, scoring a lowly 6 per cent in the Opinium survey (down from 7.4 per cent at the election). 

What accounts for this disparity? After their near-extinction in 2015, the Lib Dems remain either toxic or irrelevant to many voters. Labour, by contrast, despite its pro-Brexit stance, has hoovered up Remainers (55 per cent back Jeremy Corbyn's party). 

In some cases, this reflects voters' other priorities. Remainers are prepared to support Labour on account of the party's stances on austerity, housing and education. Corbyn, meanwhile, is a eurosceptic whose internationalism and pro-migration reputation endear him to EU supporters. Other Remainers rewarded Labour MPs who voted against Article 50, rebelling against the leadership's stance. 

But the trend also partly reflects ignorance. By saying little on the subject of Brexit, Corbyn and Labour allowed Remainers to assume the best. Though there is little evidence that voters will abandon Corbyn over his EU stance, the potential exists.

For this reason, the proposal of a new party will continue to recur. By challenging Labour over Brexit, without the toxicity of Lib Dems, it would sharpen the choice before voters. Though it would not win an election, a new party could force Corbyn to soften his stance on Brexit or to offer a second referendum (mirroring Ukip's effect on the Conservatives).

The greatest problem for the project is that it lacks support where it counts: among MPs. For reasons of tribalism and strategy, there is no emergent "Gang of Four" ready to helm a new party. In the absence of a new convulsion, the UK may turn against Brexit without the anti-Brexiteers benefiting. 

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.