Economics lookahead, w/c 9 April

Short week, but that's no excuse not to pay attention.

Monday

  • Was yesterday.

Tuesday

  • IMF world outlook released throughout the week. This biannual publication (that's twice a year, not every two years) is released in chunks. Today is the analytical chapters.
  • OECD publishes its review, Towards New Arrangements for State Ownership in the Middle East and North Africa, examining how best to manage state institutions post-Arab Spring. Expected recommendations include "privatise them".

Wednesday

  • KPMG release their retail sales monitor, in conjunction with the British Retail Consortium...
  • ...and their report on jobs, with the Recruitment & Employment Confederation.

Thursday

  • ONS releases the monthly trade figures.
  • Nationwide release their consumer confidence index.
  • Finally, the British Retail Consortium releases its monthly shop price index, an alternate measure of inflation.

Friday

  • China announces its quarterly GDP growth.
  • ONS releases the producer price index (which is usually expected to track the PMIs released earlier this month, but after the wild discrepancy for manufacturing, that seems less likely).

A man protests Egypt's military rulers. But really he wants liberalism. (Getty)

Alex Hern is a technology reporter for the Guardian. He was formerly staff writer at the New Statesman. You should follow Alex on Twitter.

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Will Jeremy Corbyn stand down if Labour loses the general election?

Defeat at the polls might not be the end of Corbyn’s leadership.

The latest polls suggest that Labour is headed for heavy defeat in the June general election. Usually a general election loss would be the trigger for a leader to quit: Michael Foot, Gordon Brown and Ed Miliband all stood down after their first defeat, although Neil Kinnock saw out two losses before resigning in 1992.

It’s possible, if unlikely, that Corbyn could become prime minister. If that prospect doesn’t materialise, however, the question is: will Corbyn follow the majority of his predecessors and resign, or will he hang on in office?

Will Corbyn stand down? The rules

There is no formal process for the parliamentary Labour party to oust its leader, as it discovered in the 2016 leadership challenge. Even after a majority of his MPs had voted no confidence in him, Corbyn stayed on, ultimately winning his second leadership contest after it was decided that the current leader should be automatically included on the ballot.

This year’s conference will vote on to reform the leadership selection process that would make it easier for a left-wing candidate to get on the ballot (nicknamed the “McDonnell amendment” by centrists): Corbyn could be waiting for this motion to pass before he resigns.

Will Corbyn stand down? The membership

Corbyn’s support in the membership is still strong. Without an equally compelling candidate to put before the party, Corbyn’s opponents in the PLP are unlikely to initiate another leadership battle they’re likely to lose.

That said, a general election loss could change that. Polling from March suggests that half of Labour members wanted Corbyn to stand down either immediately or before the general election.

Will Corbyn stand down? The rumours

Sources close to Corbyn have said that he might not stand down, even if he leads Labour to a crushing defeat this June. They mention Kinnock’s survival after the 1987 general election as a precedent (although at the 1987 election, Labour did gain seats).

Will Corbyn stand down? The verdict

Given his struggles to manage his own MPs and the example of other leaders, it would be remarkable if Corbyn did not stand down should Labour lose the general election. However, staying on after a vote of no-confidence in 2016 was also remarkable, and the mooted changes to the leadership election process give him a reason to hold on until September in order to secure a left-wing succession.

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