Economics lookahead, w/c 2 April

Featuring statistics, and lots of them.

Monday

  • The Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply, in conjunction with Markit, releases the Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers Index), a monthly survey of the manufacturing sector. The index is a reliable predictor of growth or shrinkage in its sector.
  • CBI & PwC releases its quarterly financial services survey, a pretty thorough overview of the state of the financial services sector...
  • ... and Deloitte releases its nationwide survey of chief financial officers of major UK companies. Together, these two reports form a strong overview of the views of the major customers and providers in the financial sector.

Tuesday

  • British Chambers of Commerce releases its quarterly economic survey, which covers businesses across the UK.
  • Demos are hosting a talk by Gareth Thomas MP (Labour, Harrow West) on 'Social Finance and Early Action'.

Wednesday

  • The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is meeting, and will announce whether or not it will raise interest rates from 0.5 per cent on Thursday. Spoiler warning: It probably won't. Also covered will be the size of the quantitative easing programme, which currently stands at £325bn.
  • The European Central Bank will also decide whether to raise the Eurozone's interest rate from 1 per cent, and will annouce its decision at 3:30 UK time.
  • Finally, the British Retail Consortium releases its monthly shop price index, an alternate measure of inflation.

Thursday

  • The Bank of England announces its decision (see above).
  • National Institute of Economic & Social Research (NIESR) releases its monthly GDP estimates at 3:00pm, likely to include an updated version of this chart.
  • The Office of National Statistics will release the monthly industrial production statistics.
  • Halifax releases its house price index.

Friday

  • The American employment report is released.
  • It's Good Friday. Go home.
US employment report is released on Friday. Credit: Getty

Alex Hern is a technology reporter for the Guardian. He was formerly staff writer at the New Statesman. You should follow Alex on Twitter.

Ukip's Nigel Farage and Paul Nuttall. Photo: Getty
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Is the general election 2017 the end of Ukip?

Ukip led the way to Brexit, but now the party is on less than 10 per cent in the polls. 

Ukip could be finished. Ukip has only ever had two MPs, but it held an outside influence on politics: without it, we’d probably never have had the EU referendum. But Brexit has turned Ukip into a single-issue party without an issue. Ukip’s sole remaining MP, Douglas Carswell, left the party in March 2017, and told Sky News’ Adam Boulton that there was “no point” to the party anymore. 

Not everyone in Ukip has given up, though: Nigel Farage told Peston on Sunday that Ukip “will survive”, and current leader Paul Nuttall will be contesting a seat this year. But Ukip is standing in fewer constituencies than last time thanks to a shortage of both money and people. Who benefits if Ukip is finished? It’s likely to be the Tories. 

Is Ukip finished? 

What are Ukip's poll ratings?

Ukip’s poll ratings peaked in June 2016 at 16 per cent. Since the leave campaign’s success, that has steadily declined so that Ukip is going into the 2017 general election on 4 per cent, according to the latest polls. If the polls can be trusted, that’s a serious collapse.

Can Ukip get anymore MPs?

In the 2015 general election Ukip contested nearly every seat and got 13 per cent of the vote, making it the third biggest party (although is only returned one MP). Now Ukip is reportedly struggling to find candidates and could stand in as few as 100 seats. Ukip leader Paul Nuttall will stand in Boston and Skegness, but both ex-leader Nigel Farage and donor Arron Banks have ruled themselves out of running this time.

How many members does Ukip have?

Ukip’s membership declined from 45,994 at the 2015 general election to 39,000 in 2016. That’s a worrying sign for any political party, which relies on grassroots memberships to put in the campaigning legwork.

What does Ukip's decline mean for Labour and the Conservatives? 

The rise of Ukip took votes from both the Conservatives and Labour, with a nationalist message that appealed to disaffected voters from both right and left. But the decline of Ukip only seems to be helping the Conservatives. Stephen Bush has written about how in Wales voting Ukip seems to have been a gateway drug for traditional Labour voters who are now backing the mainstream right; so the voters Ukip took from the Conservatives are reverting to the Conservatives, and the ones they took from Labour are transferring to the Conservatives too.

Ukip might be finished as an electoral force, but its influence on the rest of British politics will be felt for many years yet. 

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