Economics lookahead: w/c 26 March

What to expect in the week to come.

Monday

  • The Budget debate is timetabled to finish today, shortly before the House begins recess. Since the Budget last week, the Chancellor's "granny tax" – a real-terms cut in pensions for middle-income pensioners – has been the subject of several waves of backlash and counter-backlash.
  • The think tank Reform holds a seminar on "stimulus versus austerity".
  • The left-wing Compass group holds its annual lecture. The topic this year is "The Craft of Co-operation" and it is given by the London School of Economics professor Richard Sennett.    

Tuesday

  • The Health and Social Care Bill – the NHS bill – is likely to get royal assent by today, officially becoming law. The bill has been the subject of a last-minute, symbolic campaign to petition the Queen not to give her assent.
  • The business, innovation and skills select committee is hearing oral evidence on apprenticeships. Witnesses include the head of skills at Microsoft UK and the HR director of Morrisons supermarkets.

Wednesday

  • UK National Statistics releases the final growth figures for the fourth quarter of 2011/2012. Last month, it revised its estimate down by 0.2 percentage points.
  • The Financial Services Authority publishes its biannual dossier of all complaints received against companies under its jurisdiction.
  • The Supreme Court of the United States finishes its three days of oral arguments on health-care reform. The court normally takes a few weeks after oral arguments conclude to publish its opinion.

Thursday

  • The Brics group (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) holds its annual summit meeting. This year, it is taking place in New Delhi, India, and South Africa will be in attendence for the first time.
  • UK National Statistics releases its labour productivity statistics and the monthly service-sector figures.
  • The monetarist think tank the Institute of Economic Affairs holds its annual Hayek Memorial Lecture. This year, Professor Elinor Ostrom will speak on market failure and government regulation.
  • The think tank Centre for Cities is holding its post-Budget briefing, moved from Tuesday..

Friday

  • The UK Consumer Confidence Survey, conducted on behalf of the European Commission, is released.
  • UK National Statistics releases the Maastricht-mandated report on government debt and deficit.
Friedrich Hayek. Credit: Getty Images/Hulton Archive

Alex Hern is a technology reporter for the Guardian. He was formerly staff writer at the New Statesman. You should follow Alex on Twitter.

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I believe only Yvette Cooper has the breadth of support to beat Jeremy Corbyn

All the recent polling suggests Andy Burnham is losing more votes than anyone else to Jeremy Corbyn, says Diana Johnson MP.

Tom Blenkinsop MP on the New Statesman website today says he is giving his second preference to Andy Burnham as he thinks that Andy has the best chance of beating Jeremy.

This is on the basis that if Yvette goes out first all her second preferences will swing behind Andy, whereas if Andy goes out first then his second preferences, due to the broad alliance he has created behind his campaign, will all or largely switch to the other male candidate, Jeremy.

Let's take a deep breath and try and think through what will be the effect of preferential voting in the Labour leadership.

First of all, it is very difficult to know how second preferences will switch. From my telephone canvassing there is some rather interesting voting going on, but I don't accept that Tom’s analysis is correct. I have certainly picked up growing support for Yvette in recent weeks.

In fact you can argue the reverse of Tom’s analysis is true – Andy has moved further away from the centre and, as a result, his pitch to those like Tom who are supporting Liz first is now narrower. As a result, Yvette is more likely to pick up those second preferences.

Stats from the Yvette For Labour team show Yvette picking up the majority of second preferences from all candidates – from the Progress wing supporting Liz to the softer left fans of Jeremy – and Andy's supporters too. Their figures show many undecideds opting for Yvette as their first preference, as well as others choosing to switch their first preference to Yvette from one of the other candidates. It's for this reason I still believe only Yvette has the breadth of support to beat Jeremy and then to go on to win in 2020.

It's interesting that Andy has not been willing to make it clear that second preferences should go to Yvette or Liz. Yvette has been very clear that she would encourage second preferences to be for Andy or Liz.

Having watched Andy on Sky's Murnaghan show this morning, he categorically states that Labour will not get beyond first base with the electorate at a general election if we are not economically credible and that fundamentally Jeremy's economic plans do not add up. So, I am unsure why Andy is so unwilling to be clear on second preferences.

All the recent polling suggests Andy is losing more votes than anyone else to Jeremy. He trails fourth in London – where a huge proportion of our electorate is based.

So I would urge Tom to reflect more widely on who is best placed to provide the strongest opposition to the Tories, appeal to the widest group of voters and reach out to the communities we need to win back. I believe that this has to be Yvette.

The Newsnight focus group a few days ago showed that Yvette is best placed to win back those former Labour voters we will need in 2020.

Labour will pay a massive price if we ignore this.

Diana Johnson is the Labour MP for Hull North.