Economics lookahead: w/c 26 March

What to expect in the week to come.

Monday

  • The Budget debate is timetabled to finish today, shortly before the House begins recess. Since the Budget last week, the Chancellor's "granny tax" – a real-terms cut in pensions for middle-income pensioners – has been the subject of several waves of backlash and counter-backlash.
  • The think tank Reform holds a seminar on "stimulus versus austerity".
  • The left-wing Compass group holds its annual lecture. The topic this year is "The Craft of Co-operation" and it is given by the London School of Economics professor Richard Sennett.    

Tuesday

  • The Health and Social Care Bill – the NHS bill – is likely to get royal assent by today, officially becoming law. The bill has been the subject of a last-minute, symbolic campaign to petition the Queen not to give her assent.
  • The business, innovation and skills select committee is hearing oral evidence on apprenticeships. Witnesses include the head of skills at Microsoft UK and the HR director of Morrisons supermarkets.

Wednesday

  • UK National Statistics releases the final growth figures for the fourth quarter of 2011/2012. Last month, it revised its estimate down by 0.2 percentage points.
  • The Financial Services Authority publishes its biannual dossier of all complaints received against companies under its jurisdiction.
  • The Supreme Court of the United States finishes its three days of oral arguments on health-care reform. The court normally takes a few weeks after oral arguments conclude to publish its opinion.

Thursday

  • The Brics group (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) holds its annual summit meeting. This year, it is taking place in New Delhi, India, and South Africa will be in attendence for the first time.
  • UK National Statistics releases its labour productivity statistics and the monthly service-sector figures.
  • The monetarist think tank the Institute of Economic Affairs holds its annual Hayek Memorial Lecture. This year, Professor Elinor Ostrom will speak on market failure and government regulation.
  • The think tank Centre for Cities is holding its post-Budget briefing, moved from Tuesday..

Friday

  • The UK Consumer Confidence Survey, conducted on behalf of the European Commission, is released.
  • UK National Statistics releases the Maastricht-mandated report on government debt and deficit.
Friedrich Hayek. Credit: Getty Images/Hulton Archive

Alex Hern is a technology reporter for the Guardian. He was formerly staff writer at the New Statesman. You should follow Alex on Twitter.

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Voters are turning against Brexit but the Lib Dems aren't benefiting

Labour's pro-Brexit stance is not preventing it from winning the support of Remainers. Will that change?

More than a year after the UK voted for Brexit, there has been little sign of buyer's remorse. The public, including around a third of Remainers, are largely of the view that the government should "get on with it".

But as real wages are squeezed (owing to the Brexit-linked inflationary spike) there are tentative signs that the mood is changing. In the event of a second referendum, an Opinium/Observer poll found, 47 per cent would vote Remain, compared to 44 per cent for Leave. Support for a repeat vote is also increasing. Forty one per cent of the public now favour a second referendum (with 48 per cent opposed), compared to 33 per cent last December. 

The Liberal Democrats have made halting Brexit their raison d'être. But as public opinion turns, there is no sign they are benefiting. Since the election, Vince Cable's party has yet to exceed single figures in the polls, scoring a lowly 6 per cent in the Opinium survey (down from 7.4 per cent at the election). 

What accounts for this disparity? After their near-extinction in 2015, the Lib Dems remain either toxic or irrelevant to many voters. Labour, by contrast, despite its pro-Brexit stance, has hoovered up Remainers (55 per cent back Jeremy Corbyn's party). 

In some cases, this reflects voters' other priorities. Remainers are prepared to support Labour on account of the party's stances on austerity, housing and education. Corbyn, meanwhile, is a eurosceptic whose internationalism and pro-migration reputation endear him to EU supporters. Other Remainers rewarded Labour MPs who voted against Article 50, rebelling against the leadership's stance. 

But the trend also partly reflects ignorance. By saying little on the subject of Brexit, Corbyn and Labour allowed Remainers to assume the best. Though there is little evidence that voters will abandon Corbyn over his EU stance, the potential exists.

For this reason, the proposal of a new party will continue to recur. By challenging Labour over Brexit, without the toxicity of Lib Dems, it would sharpen the choice before voters. Though it would not win an election, a new party could force Corbyn to soften his stance on Brexit or to offer a second referendum (mirroring Ukip's effect on the Conservatives).

The greatest problem for the project is that it lacks support where it counts: among MPs. For reasons of tribalism and strategy, there is no emergent "Gang of Four" ready to helm a new party. In the absence of a new convulsion, the UK may turn against Brexit without the anti-Brexiteers benefiting. 

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.