It may be too late to save the UK economy from recession

Today has seen a flood of bad economic news. The Autumn Statement may be too little, too late.

I am really hoping that one of these mornings I am going to wake up to some good economic news. But today was definitely not that day. The continuing flow of bad news on top of bad news is something we are all now becoming accustomed to.

I can only imagine how Vince and George feel every day when they open the economics and business pages of the newspapers. I did think it was time to try to be optimistic but I could find zero good news on the economics front; sorry. Neither Papendreou nor Berlusconi's resignations appear to have calmed the market's nerves.

Today started with an email from REC/KPMG's report on Jobs showing that the number of permanent placements had gone into negative territory. Recall that the latest labour market estimates from the ONS showed that employment had fallen over the last quarter by 178,000. So this is very bad news as it suggests that the labour market is headed downwards fast. Unemployment is set to rise again and there is every likelihood that youth unemployment will hit the million mark very soon.

No wonder there are thousands of youngsters on the streets of London, to this point protesting peacefully, about the government's lack of a credible higher education policy or any strategy to deal with rising youth unemployment.

But the bad news continued to flood in all morning. First there was the ONS publication of August's trade in goods deficit revised from £7.8bn to £8.6bn, but the deficit then widened further in September to £9.8bn - the biggest on record.

Second the CBI cut its growth forecast for 2011 to 0.9 per cent from 1.3, and for 2012 to 1.2 from 2.2 per cent, which is slightly more optimistic than NIESR's estimate yesterday of 0.8 and 0.9 per cent - recall that the OBR expects 2.6 per cent in 2011 and 2.8 per cent in 2012.

Third, the ICAEW/Grant Thornton Business Confidence Monitor showed business confidence has collapsed - companies are as gloomy about the outlook now as they were in the depths of the recession. The slump in sentiment pointed to a 0.2 per cent drop in GDP in Q42011.

And finally, we mustn't forget Italy - their 10 year bond yields were up 66bp at 7.37 per cent at noon today which is in bailout territory. Spanish yields were also up at 5.7 per cent. Greek yields are already over 25 per cent while 10 year Portuguese yields are over 11 per cent. This suggests the eurozone is heading into recession which hurts the UK economy which also now seems headed that way. Q42011 and Q12012 look likely to have negative GDP growth, which is consistent with a technical definition of a recession.

So the headwinds continue to gather. The Autumn Statement at the end of the month looks like it is going to be too little too late to prevent the UK economy going back into recession. I did warn them.

David Blanchflower is economics editor of the New Statesman and professor of economics at Dartmouth College, New Hampshire

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The Telegraph’s bizarre list of 100 reasons to be happy about Brexit

“Old-fashioned light bulbs”, “crooked cucumbers”, and “new vocabulary”.

As the economy teeters on the verge of oblivion, and the Prime Minister grapples with steering the UK around a black hole of political turmoil, the Telegraph is making the best of a bad situation.

The paper has posted a video labelled “100 reasons to embrace Brexit”. Obviously the precise number is “zero”, but that didn’t stop it filling the blanks with some rather bizarre reasons, floating before the viewer to an inevitable Jerusalem soundtrack:

Cheap tennis balls

At last. Tennis balls are no longer reserved for the gilded eurocrat elite.

Keep paper licences

I can’t trust it unless I can get it wet so it disintegrates, or I can throw it in the bin by mistake, or lose it when I’m clearing out my filing cabinet. It’s only authentic that way.

New hangover cures

What?

Stronger vacuums

An end to the miserable years of desperately trying to hoover up dust by inhaling close to the carpet.

Old-fashioned light bulbs

I like my electricals filled with mercury and coated in lead paint, ideally.

No more EU elections

Because the democratic aspect of the European Union was something we never obsessed over in the run-up to the referendum.

End working time directive

At last, I don’t even have to go to the trouble of opting out of over-working! I will automatically be exploited!

Drop green targets

Most people don’t have time to worry about the future of our planet. Some don’t even know where their next tennis ball will come from.

No more wind farms

Renewable energy sources, infrastructure and investment – what a bore.

Blue passports

I like my personal identification how I like my rinse.

UK passport lane

Oh good, an unadulterated queue of British tourists. Just mind the vomit, beer spillage and flakes of sunburnt skin while you wait.

No fridge red tape

Free the fridge!

Pounds and ounces

Units of measurement are definitely top of voters’ priorities. Way above the economy, health service, and even a smidgen higher than equality of tennis ball access.

Straight bananas

Wait, what kind of bananas do Brexiteers want? Didn’t they want to protect bendy ones? Either way, this is as persistent a myth as the slapstick banana skin trope.

Crooked cucumbers

I don’t understand.

Small kiwi fruits

Fair enough. They were getting a bit above their station, weren’t they.

No EU flags in UK

They are a disgusting colour and design. An eyesore everywhere you look…in the uh zero places that fly them here.

Kent champagne

To celebrate Ukip cleaning up the east coast, right?

No olive oil bans

Finally, we can put our reliable, Mediterranean weather and multiple olive groves to proper use.

No clinical trials red tape

What is there to regulate?

No Turkey EU worries

True, we don’t have to worry. Because there is NO WAY AND NEVER WAS.

No kettle restrictions

Free the kettle! All kitchen appliances’ lives matter!

Less EU X-factor

What is this?

Ditto with BGT

I really don’t get this.

New vocabulary

Mainly racist slurs, right?

Keep our UN seat

Until that in/out UN referendum, of course.

No EU human rights laws

Yeah, got a bit fed up with my human rights tbh.

Herbal remedy boost

At last, a chance to be treated with medicine that doesn’t work.

Others will follow [picture of dominos]

Hooray! The economic collapse of countries surrounding us upon whose trade and labour we rely, one by one!

Better English team

Ah, because we can replace them with more qualified players under an Australian-style points-based system, you mean?

High-powered hairdryers

An end to the miserable years of desperately trying to dry my hair by yawning on it.

She would’ve wanted it [picture of Margaret Thatcher]

Well, I’m convinced.

I'm a mole, innit.