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Chris

I have a post grad degree in Economics, but I wouldnt patronise people to the extent you do. Teaching Economics and 'doing' Economics aint the same thing.
If you had worked in private enterprise you would realise its possible to make good judgements most of the time but get things wrong sometimes and not be so quick to shoot others down.
Only an academic could leave comments like you do.

Let's not forget more people live in Birmingham than Denmark. In-fact there's probably more illegal immigrants living in England than live on a few rocks north of Germany. Any comparisons between Britain and Denmark is plainly ridiculous, apart from not being members of the euro..

An interesting question for you chris
Do you think the greeks should exit euro, introduce a new drachma etc???

RCMoya612

WRONG you fool.........

The Argentine Currency Board pegged the Argentine peso to the U.S. dollar between 1991 and 2002 in an attempt to eliminate hyperinflation and stimulate economic growth. While it initially met with considerable success, the board's actions ultimately failed. In contrast of what most people think, this peg actually did not exist, except only in the FIRST years of the plan. From then on, the government NEVER needed to use the foreign exchange reserves of the country in the maintenance of the peg, except when the recession and the massive bank withdrawals started in 2000.

@chris
"the solution to this problem lies in structural reforms to the supply side not in some fiscal stimulus"

Clare has made the most insightful comment on this blog.

Such a high proportion of discretionary spending goes on imports that stimulus in the hands of consumers is waisted. It explains why the UK has such a low multiplier.

So we need to penalise consumers for importing. How do you propose we do that (the clue is in Clare's obsevation)

Disagreed with Swatantra.

We're talking theory and principle. In both terms, what Danny is saying is that what the Danes are doing is right. Their bond yields haven't been affected (investors don't just buy UK Bonds but any bond which they regard to be safe and will give them a healthy return) and their injection should have a beneficial effect on their growth.

............in other words the peg(s) were like the emperor's clothes imagined rather than real. btw russia never really stuck to the peg either it expanded the range anything nasty happened. so as you see your point is entirely fallacious. with or without this peg the investor base would have fled and these nation would still have defaulted. note when both nations defaulted they were adopting floating exchange rates, the pegs had been given up well before.

dear me sovereigns can't default :)that is on a par with claiming boom and bust had been ended. what other wacky ideas do you lefties subscribe to?

This is utter tosh. All the engines of UK growth are irreparably broken - construction/housebuilding, financial services and public sector spending. Artificially revive them and in a few years we will be where we are now but with even worse debt and probably entering a debt default spiral ala southern europe. All we can do is cut - this WILL cause a recession but it WILL prevent insolvency or a collapse in living standards under runaway inflation. We can then start the long and difficult transition to a more balanced and sustainable economy.

RC Moya

Japanese debt is mainly domestically held, the japanese post office one of the largest investors in the world ready to buy more at the govts word.This and historically low inflation, and a stockmarket that never really paid dividends (there was a time when people bought Nippon for stock performance as div yields were always low)so there was no competition from the stock market to bonds.
As for you comments re a country can never go bankrupt if it issues bonds in it's own currency with own central bank- can NEVER go bankrupt you're saying. I didn't realise running economies was that simple. So the solution for europe, indeed for any nation is just to do that, right MC Moya? Very easy.
What's clear here is their is disagreement between a few people. Chris, RC moya and Phil Daniels quote theories as to why it's DEFINITELY ok to fiscally stimulate right now, and we get treated like kids who don't understand some of the most basic economis ideas i.e. increased employment= increased gdp= easier paying down of debt- no matter that if it were this easy there would never be a problem. Clare and I are arguing that just as you say 'uk is not and has never been in bankruptcy or chance of default' w, well, neither did the french and german banks think that when buying 10yr greek over gferman at 14 bps over- EU politicians PROMISED there would NEVER be a bailout back in 2000, thus no mechanism was ever put in place. We were guaranteed by politicians and economists that countries joining the EU would only do so under the strictest conditions and criteria being met, but this didn't happen either. We're being told now by yourselves that a straight forward fiscal stimulus will
1. create jobs
2. pay down the deficit
3. won't increase our Interest rates
and you calim this categorically.
I must defer to your greater minds because you know this DEFINITELY to be the case. Obviously it would DEFINITELY be the case because if you were wrong, well, just dosen't bear thinking about does it?

I don't think you have the imagination to come up with an shape Luddite. I have noticed your not so vocal in supporting osborne.

If you had taken to read Indoo's dross, she talks about the Laffer curve being a different shape for the UK and Denmark. It is a legitimate question Luddite, what are the shapes?
Learning the hard way old man?

RC Moya, Chris, phil
You're not happy with just a debt crisis, u want a full blown currency crisis as well. You risk that because you're privilegerd lives mean that you have not the slightest inkling of what that would entail.

Clare, you still haven't told us which Economic model you are using to derive your propositions. Please let us know what model you're using? It would be fascinating to know your background.

You keep telling us that at some stage the bond market will suddenly shift their bond purchases else where. Can you tell us the size of the deficit or national debt in which they will do this? I bet you £1 billion that you can’t. Indeed many economists 2-3 years ago (see Wall St Journal) thought investors would shift away from US/UK bonds due to the inflation threat from quantitative easing. This clearly didn’t arise thus backing up the predictions of the Keynesian/Koo model.

We don't appear to be anywhere near a trajectory of massive bond sales. The appetite for bonds has never been larger. As any finance professor will tell you: the interest rate on long maturity government bonds is the expected future short rate. This is very low, meaning that bond market participants believe interest rates will be low in the future due the awful looking future economy. Investors are so scared about the 0-growth scenario they’re quite happy to take a 2% risk free yield instead of putting there money elsewhere(i.e. stock market etc).

The only way the economy will begin to pick up is a growth strategy that includes (1) short-term fiscal stimulus; (2) monetary stimulus; (3) long-term budget balance and (4) supply side reform. By the way (1) and (3) are not mutually exclusive. When you have a problem, you attack using all fronts. Unfortunately the Tory government, based on ideology, has decided that all government spending is bad. Therefore, any attempt to get the economy moving via (2), (3) and (4) is severely undermined.

Clare, a useful way you might be able to attack my argument, is to state that I also don’t know when the bond market will suddenly begin to reverse. I thought I’d address this, even though I don’t think you’re smart enough to even think of this line of attack.

The answer is simple and derived from the Keynesian/Koo model:
Bond sales will increase, thus driving up yields, when the fiscal stimulus begins to drive growth, thus bringing confidence back into the economy. The private sector will begin to start investing so traders will move there capital into more risky assets. Once confidence has returned, the government can then take its foot off the fiscal accelerator and begin to pay off the deficit gradually. The unemployment problem is mitigated and all of the hidden costs of unemployment are minimised. Then the policies (3) and (4) come into play to generate more growth. A monetary rule (aka Taylor) can then be implemented (which includes house price and other asset inflation) to ensure moderate growth in the future to even out the business cycle. Combine this with an effective regulatory framework to deter retail banks from making excessive risks and the chances of the type of economic disaster we’ve just experienced will fall significantly.

Note, this would not be my normal remedy for a recession, but this recession is the worst since the 1930’s. Balance-sheet recessions/depressions need unconventional remedies compared to normal recessions. Unfortunately, you only understand the remedy for a normal recession. Please begin to open your mind!!!!!!

@danny

you aren't quite telling us the whole picture here. the Danish governmnet ran large BUDGET SURPLUSES in 2004, 2005, 2006 & 2007 and reduced debt levels signifcantly in stark contrast to the deficits the UK posted in these years. clearly because their debts are very low relative to ours (43% vs circa 80%), and their budget deficit is far smaller they are well able to afford a stimulus. the same is true for all the other countries you try to compare the UK to, all have far better public finances.

@matt

I dont know the shape of the laffer curves for the UK currently. But the question indicates your political interest.

Generally we differ: you seek to maximise tax collected even if national wealth is not maximised. I seek to maximise wealth even if the government collects less tax.

Common ground should be
- corporation tax: currently UK rates are not competitive so that businesses are offshoring their profits in the US or simply moving their businesses out side of the UK.
- increasing VAT should increase the tax collected.

Increasing VAT also introduces a bias infavor of exporters and penalises imports and internal consumption. The Denmark 25% VAT might be one of the factors which has shaped their economy.

But Labour wants to reduce VAT. It goes against the whole strategy of a big state - its driven for the synical manipulation of voters against the national interest. You can see that now?

Not all Danish seem to agree with Mr. Blanchflower.

From the "Copenhagen Post" of November 3:

Euro relationship the worst of both worlds

When asked, a majority of voters in 2000 said ‘nej’ to joining the euro. And whether their decisions were made on nationalistic or economic grounds – or out of plain uncertainty – their expectation was that by rejecting the common currency, Denmark would remain master of its own economic domain.

The reality, however, couldn’t be further from the truth. As any traveller can tell you, prices here are still listed in kroner and øre, but the value of the krone is pegged to the euro and, as any homeowner can tell you, this means interest rates are normally changed to match rate changes in the Eurozone.

But even though Denmark is a Eurozone country in all ways but name, the recent summits spurred by the failing Greek economy show that only full-fledged membership counts when it comes to making the big decisions.

With the Eurozone moving towards closer co-operation, the time has come for Denmark to decide whether it is fully in or fully out.

Withdrawing entirely and allowing the krone to float freely against the euro and other currencies is one option. This is the path followed by Sweden and the UK, and the current economic situations in both countries show that economic growth is just as much a matter of reforms as currency decisions are.

Given the problems plaguing the euro right now, it would certainly be easier to sell a full withdrawal from the euro to voters. However, turning away from the euro entirely would be akin to rejecting Denmark’s role in the EU and the benefits the country has gained from the stability it provides.

The EU has been credited with providing political stability in Europe, and with the proper reforms, the euro has the potential to do the same for its economy. As an exporting nation, Denmark has a stable exchange rate with major markets in Europe, which has benefited businesses by giving them some security against currency fluctuations.

Even before the introduction of the euro, the goal of Denmark’s monetary policy was to hold the krone stable. Doing so was accomplished by tying the krone to first the pound sterling and then the Deutschmark. Tying the krone to the euro puts us in much the same position, but the difference is that we now have the chance to get a seat at the negotiating table.

Denmark has always caught a cold when major economies sneeze. Adopting the euro won’t prevent the economy from getting sick again, but it will at least allow us to have some say in what the treatment is.

RE:Awake

Wow, you speak to bond traders. That means you know everything. At the moment the bond market is pricing in very low interest rates because it knows that the world economy is going to be rubbish for the next 10 years.

No doubt Danis will be shifting its bonds out of the EU into UK, US and Danish debt, because all these countries have monetary autonomy!!!!!!!

If UK debt was risky the interest rate would be high. It is at a historic low!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

chris
'No doubt Danis will be shifting its bonds out of the EU into UK, US and Danish debt, because all these countries have monetary autonomy'

You don't understand debt trading.
U think the Danes moving on from EU cos it's to do with monetary autonomy?? I have not heard that before- u are the ONLY person to tell me this- whose right Chris, assuming there is a right?
The current problem's solutions are not found in your textbooks and I don't mean that direspectfully. rational analysis will break down somewhat in a crisis, that is when fear takes hold, and is why there is no growth.
The problems are deeper for western economies, structurally the imbalences have reached a critical point- and NO model can oredict these, otherwise we would never have crashes...

Super sorry, it should have read 30% of the working population where employed by the state.

foxy
i believe the Danes ran a budget surplus for many years... that is ONE reason why they are different. Also the scandis are the most business honest people on the planet- not for them politicians buying sweeties to win votes... They are MUCH longer term thinkers than brits- u need proof? look at the calls here, 90% for short term fixes and 'boosts' to the economy, nothing about strucyural reforms. Vat cut anyone? that should sort it.
Hey i know, rather than spend a load on magnetic resonance imagery equipment we could buy a load of plasters and stick that on cancer patients heads.. AND give them a lollipop

Chris
u wrote
'At the moment the bond market is pricing in very low interest rates because it knows that the world economy is going to be rubbish for the next 10 years.'

what about France, Italy, greece, portugal etc, they aint so low?

awake beofre you are Keynesian/Koo by chris you are basically using the Austrian School of thought. Austrian economists argue that mathematical models and statistics are an unreliable means of analyzing and testing economic theory. Austrian economists generally believe you can't test in economics and mathematical modelling of a market is virtually impossible since it relies on human behaviour which is too erratic.

clare
thx, did not know that about austrian school of thought.
I think it's a balence, different times different things work- u can make use of models at times, others they break down, but that logic train don't fit into traditional analytical thinking- which incidentally goes right back to the Greeks and their search for 's priori' knowledge.. and interstingly (well for me anyway) this search for knowledge , the next leap in logic only makes a great stride much much later circa 17th century, the german idealists etc, who went to asia and adopted some of their logic/religion/understanding of the universe into their thinking- we call that 'holistic' thinking- I've long argued that the way accountants analyse companies is fundamentally flawed, but in economics the white man is always right...
look at our universities- GREAT and poor as well... they tell us the west (german) developed Gaussian elimination technique, a hyper powerful tool for solving equations in many variables by hand- yet this was ACTUALLY developed in India 2000 years ago!! and that is FACT- does it get chnged in Uni's now, does the correct accreditaion get givem? nah, the white man rules the world, and people like chris believe fervently in their toy models.
Lefties... no sense of history, perspective, relativity-