The chaotic Yes to AV campaign
Few campaign plans survive contact with the enemy. Yes to AV has proved no exception.
By Dan Hodges Published 28 February 2011 11:13
Dull? You think the AV referendum campaign is dull? It's only been going for a fortnight and we've already had vile smears, fasict slurs, Oscar winners, prime ministers, dinosaurs, bishops and even a brief sighting of Nick Clegg.
I have to fess up. When not blogging on here, I do a turn with the No to AV campaign as a consultant. It's a bit like being a soldier returning from the Vietnam war. People point at you and sneer, "That's him, the £250m ad guy. He's been doing disgusting things to babies and soldiers."
All I can say in mitigation is: you haven't been there. Up country. Into the heart of darkness of the fight for alternative votes.
The atrocities the other side commits go unreported. The fake website calling the No finance director a Nazi. The photoshopped image of John Prescott and Margaret Beckett next to Nick Griffin. The miniature dinosaurs being sent round to caricature Labour MPs and trade union leaders.
Oh, they know how to fight dirty, those Yes boys and girls. The saintly clergy and the fragrant Helena Bonham Carter telling us sweetly, "AV is as easy as one, two, three." It's all a smokescreen, I tell you, a front for the world's press. Over at Yes HQ they'd as soon stab you in the ballots as look at you.
Actually, I have to confess to some respect for the opposition. Their discipline is ruthless: "A small change that'll make a big difference", "MPs will have to work harder to win". Their rapid and efficient deployment as a "people's campaign". Oh, they got the jump on us all right; with polling leads last year at times as high as 25 per cent.
But few campaign plans survive contact with the enemy, and Yes has proved no exception. There's a strong strand of moral superiority running through the crusade for "fairer votes", and on the first few occasions they have run into an opposing viewpoint, they have faltered.
Their first mistake was the release of their "celebrity backers". They certainly got a lot of publicity: too much publicity. If you're trying to make yourself look like an earthy, grass-roots movement, squeezing out a press release in between the Oscar nomination and the acceptance speech isn't the smartest way of going about it. Nor is it the best idea to select as a frontman and woman for your "people's campaign" two actors who have become synonymous with the king and queen of England.
The second, and far more serious, mistake was their chaotic response to the publication of the £250m referendum expense. First they tried to dismiss it, then they went hysterical over it and finally, and most ludicrously, they tried to ban it. There is a golden rule for dealing with an opponent's political costing of your programme. Either destroy it, or ignore it. The Yes campaign has done neither.
It's perfectly legitimate to have a debate over the price of the referendum, its implementation and the wisdom of spending up to a quarter of a billion pounds on electoral reform when there are a so many other urgent public spending priorities. At least I believe it is. The Yes campaign chief executive, Katie Ghose, clearly thinks otherwise, and has claimed that adverts carrying the £250m figure are illegal. Her campaign literally believes claiming AV will cost £250m should be against the law of the land.
Meanwhile, Charlie Kennedy has written to the ASA demanding that it tear up its rules on political advertising, stating: "UK voters are entitled to decent, honest and truthful advertising." That's the same Charlie Kennedy who as Lib Dem leader published a campaign booklet which urged his activists to "be wicked, act shamelessly, stir endlessly".
What the public thinks of this increasingly vicious fight purportedly being fought in their name, God only knows. Actually, the most recent opinion polls show a significant shift away from Yes towards the No camp, especially in those polls where the question includes a basic description of how the AV system will work.
In fact, who am I kidding? We all know the voters' real view of the AV debate. They don't give a monkey's. All they see is a quarrel in a faraway country between people of whom they know nothing. But it's a quarrel that will go on. By the time you read this, I'll be back up country, engaged in a life-or-death struggle with an elusive and ruthless foe. It's a war without mercy, seemingly without end. Against a faceless opponent for whom we have only nicknames – sHelena, or Katie, or Charlie
I don't know how it will all play out. All I know is this: I still love the thrill of putting my cross on a first-past-the-post ballot come election morning.
And Charlie don't surf.
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62 comments
What's wrong with fairer representation? If I vote Lib dem I'd rather have Labour get my secondary vote than the tories.
My view is to ignore the PR, smears and personal attacks and read up on it for yourself.
Why are the Tories so scared of this? Is it because they know they're unlikely to get in again after this shambles of a coalition. Nick Clegg and the Lib Dems sold out when joining this coalition make no mistake, but it should be remembered that it is the conservatives pulling the strings.
The debate should focus on the two voting system's merits - not apparant lies about the cost of AV and shameful baby photos.
How on earth can getting rid of the need to vote tactically by allowing people to list candidates in order can be anything other than a good thing? That way every vote counts at the final reckoning.
The No campaign seems only interested in defending vested interests not in voting fairness.
There is a huge difference between a few activists making posters that the "official" #Yes camp don't endorse & the #No camps adverts which are "official" adverts.
I'd rather my representative have 50% support than 30% support like some only need under FPTP.
Of course I believe the publication of outright lies in election material should be against the law of the land. It is in any other form of advertising. Why should this, most important of case, be exempt?
Phil Woolas was penalised for attempting to mislead the electorate, and so should you be.
Amazing article. Amazing that it was written and amazing that it was published.
Surely, if you get a slot in the New Statesman, you should at least make the basic case for retaining FPTP.
Oh wait, there isn't one.
And you know it.
I do NOT like the photo...
AV is simply the better system for electing one person/entity/thing to a single job or title when there are multiple options to choose from, which is why chairs of select committees, the speaker for the House of Commons, leaders & deputy leaders of political parties & now even a new crossbench peer for the House of Lords are all voted for using forms of AV. It's also used for choosing the Best Picture Oscar winner, which I'm sure the sensitive souls at No2AV such as Baroness Warsi & the Tax Payers Alliance people like to call the "least worst picture" Oscar! (Seriously Dan, you ought to watch the company you're keeping these days!)
If we are to keep single MP constituencies, then AV is better than FPTP because like all the examples above, the only thing voters are directly voting for is for someone to be their constituency MP- essentially they are picking 1 person for 1 job. Where I live 60% of those that voted didn't vote for the guy that won- I don't know about you, but I think that's pretty crappy.
The Yes campaign might look a bit rag-tag to some centralist politicos, but that's because Yes To Fairer Votes has actually had grassroots groups across the country for at least 5 months now & they've all been going about things in their own way, both physically & online- hence some of the unofficial & tongue-in-cheek photoshoppery of politicians, spoof twitter accounts & dinosaur jokes, which some of has overstepped the mark, but is in no way officially sanctioned.
The spin of the highly centralist No campaign is to twist all these as official campaign messages when they plainly aren't- the rich irony of this is that the repellant, nasty & falsely manipulative "baby" & "soldier" No2AV adverts are official No campaign messages, & on top of this it appears that No2AV have cyber-squatted on potential Yes campaign urls since last summer. Whines about Yes campaign "outrage" at the dreadful No2AV advertising don't wash with me as I can barely imagine the scale of the No2AV/TPA briefed & orchestrated right-wing press furore if the boot were on the other foot.
I can't believe that people get paid for writing articles as poor as this. It lacks any substance and insults the people of this country. Mr Hodges should be ashamed; does he know why he is asked to put a cross in the box? On a basic level people have suffered and people have died for that opportunity and it is the duty of all commentators to ensure that the citizens of the UK are honestly informed and certainly not subjected to bullying playground drivel. If you want to be involved in commentating on public issues then for God's sake grow up.
Dan - why not "reform" NO2AV, stop the negative campaigning and give us some credible and well argued reasons to show that FPTP is still fit for the purpose when 35% of voters do not vote for the 2 largest parties? Or is their a problem doing this?
All sounds good to me, Dan. The yes campaign don't like the £250m figure but if it's false perhaps they can explain why one of their biggest backers is a company which produces vote counting machines? As to their pious claim of "fairness," AV is not fair at all - it can lead to more disproportionate results than FPTP and, frankly, it's absurd that a BNP or Natural Law Party supporter's second third and fourth choices can be worth as much as someone else's first choice. AV is a terrible system. Keep FPTP!
What is this? A PR/ad man attacking his opponents for using celebrities to front a political campaign?
Nice try Dan.
Gosh, I'm one of these Aussies who have experience of the AV system, I must thank the no campaign for alerting me to the oppression I am currently living under. I'm still trying to find these 'machines' that do all the counting. The no campaign is so laughable if it weren't so tragic...
AV would be manor from heaven for the political-extremes. The opinion poll last week shows strong and growing support for a nationalist anti-islamist, anti-immigrant right-wing party. Many Labour and Tory core supporters would give that party their second choice vote. Possibly giving that party the balance of power.
I sense backtracking ahead, Dan. Go easy.
We all know there is no coherent reason for voting no to to A.V. None at all. Anyone inclined to campaign thus has either a vested interest or no understanding whatsoever of either system.
Which are you?
As someone above wrote:
"You've responded to all the comments except the ones that point out that every independent party to have examined your £250m cost claim says its rubbish."
Quite
Ian Kane,
People have died and suffered for the Alternative Vote?
Dan
Mr Hodges,
I'm a Tory and will vote NO to AV! Any other voting system than AV!
I see you have attached of picture of students 'outside the Liberal Democrat meeting at Transport House on May 7, 2010 in London'.
In my opinion, This was part of 'Clegg-Mania'! These Protestors thought their nasty students fees were going to disappear!
I wonder how they feel now, and the AV system would result in more horsetrading between Politicians like Clegg and our great Prime Minter David Cameron!
It's somewhat a 'Clegg-Over' rather than 'Clegg-mania'!
In other words, a Yes vote AV would not make the Government anymore trustworthy or accountable.
We have just seen the Irish General Election under the STV system. Do we really want voting system that will take most of the week, or like our friend the Irish, counted over a whole weekend!
People's second choice will probably win!
You should DEFINITELY read this on Yes:
http://www.ohdearism.com/2011/05/03/society-yestoav/
Rosie, co-editor of OhDearism
Nice new photo, Dan.
Shame you're still writing the same humourless, vacuous rubbish you always have.
"We have just seen the Irish General Election under the STV system. Do we really want voting system that will take most of the week, or like our friend the Irish, counted over a whole weekend!" (Reginald Fah-fah)
Yes, we do. I watched the RTE results show on the internet and was very impressed by the way STV enabled the voters (a) to send the ruling party packing, in a spectacular fashion, and (b) to decide which of each party's candidates come through to win, instead of party apparatchiks making that decision.
Do you really think taking an extra 24 hours before the full final results are known is too high a price to pay for such an inestimable improvement in the level of democracy?
Anyway your point is irrelevant because sadly STV is not what we are being offered. AV would not take much longer to count than FPTP.
Daniel,
Thanks. I like the photo as well.
I'll try and take a leaf our of your humourous and substantial posts.
Dan
Th article made me chuckle and I thought the line "All they[the electorate] see is a quarrel in a far-away country between people of whom they know nothing". Was very witty.
Keep up the good No to AV work.
"miniature dinosaurs being sent round to caricature Labour MPs and trade union leaders" - this is an "atrocity"?
Compared to advertising false choices between electoral reform and saving dying babies, you must be joking.
Of course voters don't give a monkeys. They don't give a monkeys about First Past the Post either. This is the "Tom Watson" fallacy.
It still doesn't mean the electoral system isn't vitally important.
Personally, I'm doing a US-style "write-in" for STV on my AV referendum ballot. [Facebook http://is.gd/xbUH9R ]
You'll be allowed to write the same cross under AV, so there's no reason to oppose it now is there, Dan ;)
I see a big difference between the official NO campaign's horrible baby adverts and individual YES supporters insulting NO figures.
Simon Gardner - funny this facebook site has been created at the same time as Dan's blog is published here? May I ask if you have anything to do with the NO2AV campaign?
I was pretty disgusted by the "£250m" campaign using Soldiers and babies- to the point that I have gone from agnostic on the issue to a yes voter. If the people who want to keep the current system are willing to stoop so low, I know what side of the fence I'd rather be on.
I suppose you job is made substantially easier by the fact that AV is a dog's dinner of a voting system that no-one really wants.
Russ, too right. The NO campaign is just there to stop the safe seats of Tory and some Labour MPs being threatened. They have no good arguments and their claims about the costs are transparently fraudulent.
You can't include the costs of the referendum because that money is being spent regardless of the outcome. And no-one is planning to introduce vote-counting machines. It is complete rubbish, and I can't believe people like Margaret Beckett have allowed themselves to be associated with it.
Totally agree Dan. A lot of the public can't even bring themselves to vote for one party nevermind 3 or 4 whether they have to or not, it will infuriate them especially at such a time as now.
Russ and Hal,
So agree with everything you both say! Under the current system you only see your MP at election time and when they are baying for more expenses in the Commons!
Dan Hodges looks like everybody else has cottoned on to the fact you should be writing for comics.
You may be right to say that the Yes campaign have not "destroyed" the £250m cost claim.
That may have something to do with the claim already having been destroyed. The Treasury say it simply isn't true. Fact Check, the Channel 4 news blog, has put the claim firmly in the fiction category.
The only thing this article betrays is that the No team seem to be a bit freaked out that there are groups all round the country putting the Yes message out every day, running street stalls at the weekend etc etc. Look on Twitter. There are are hundreds of different people saying #yes2av. There are about 5 regulars saying No.
To go back to Dan's Vietnam analogy, the Yes team are on the ground and they're everywhere, the No team's top-down strategy represents the Yanks. And we know how well that worked out for them.
The Channel 4 Fact Check is at: http://blogs.channel4.com/factcheck/factcheck-the-av-campaign-gets-dirty...
Luddite -
"AV would be manor from heaven for the political-extremes. The opinion poll last week shows strong and growing support for a nationalist anti-islamist, anti-immigrant right-wing party. Many Labour and Tory core supporters would give that party their second choice vote. Possibly giving that party the balance of power."
I don't think you understand how AV works. Even if you were right that many Labour and Tory core supporters would give the likes of the BNP their second preference vote, that would only help the extremists were they to achieve a greater number of first preference votes than either Labour or the Tories. It would only be in that case, when one of those parties was eliminated, that their supporters second preferences would come into play.
In fact, contrary to your belief that AV would be good for extremists, the BNP are firmly against AV. Furthermore, in Australia where AV is used all evidence suggests that it has pushed political parties toward centre and reduced the influence of extremist groups.
The only strong argument against AV is that it is too complex. While it is true it is more complicated than FPTP I think it's rather insulting to assume that the average voter couldn't understand it. If that were the case we may as well scrap elections entirely since anyone who can't get to grips with AV surely won't be able to understand the health and education policy, fiscal deficits and issues of international tax law which are all hot topics at present.
Further to this, all the claims currently going around about how the Electoral Commission took 349 words to explain AV and thus proved how horrifyingly complicated it is are rather meaningless. In actual fact this entire post is exactly the same length. Has anyone here struggled to read it? Has it left you scratching your head and dribbling? If I were to ask you what the general thrust of my post has been would you stare blankly at me before curling into a ball and rocking slowly back and forth, moaning softly? Thought not.
Sam,
I'm not joking.
When I describe sending someone a plastic dinosaur as an "atrocity" I'm being deadly, deadly serious.
Dan
Daniel
I'm pleased to see that I'm not the only person to think he writes a load of rubbish.
Dan - you forgot to call us Jihadists.
Out of interest when are you going to reveal to the world (via the daily mail) Al-Qaedi are running the Yes Campaign?
Stuart: Don't worry, you're in good company.
Andy: We're just working that one up. We're well aware your spectacularly effective grass roots campaign has reached Tora Bora.
Dan
Steve,
"Look on Twitter. There are are hundreds of different people saying #yes2av".
That's actually an interesting comment, and I raised this at a debate the other day.
I think a key to the vote will be whether the Yes campaign's virtual army turns into a real army come election day.
My own suspicion is it won't, and what we're seeing is me Howard Dean than Obama.
...should obviously be "more Howard Dean" rather than "me Howard Dead"...
Nothing like a pointless, Westminster-centric shibboleth to really exercise the left
Dan,
The problem with the £250 million campaign is twofold - 1) people don't trust politicians who campaign on figures, and 2) it's fundamentally bollocks.
From what I can see, it divides into a number of chunks. Firstly the cost of the referendum - which is itself a pointless claim, as the referendum would have happened anyway and even if there's a "no" vote will still cost exactly the same. In fact, "no" campaigners tried to push UP the cost of the campaign by delaying the bill's passage through the Lords, which would have meant a referendum in the autumn.
Secondly, the counting machines. As I understand it, that's actually a decision for returning officers, so while they might be used in Fife they might not in Fareham. In addition, after the fiasco of the Scottish elections in 2007, any returning officer or Government official who thinks they're a good idea needs their head seeing to.
Thirdly, the size of the constituencies and the time for the count. Let's look at Australia. There's one constituency there which - in land size - is greater than the whole of the UK. And they still manage a manual count.
Then you talk about how voters of minor parties like the BNP or UKIP will effectively get two votes - one their first choice, and one their alternative. Again, bollocks. Everybody gets a second (and third, or fourth) choice. This would apply to a Lib Dem voter living in Kirkcaldy, or a Labour voter up the road in Cupar, or a Tory in the Western Isles, to give but three examples.
I don't think AV is the best system - I prefer STV - but it's the best on offer in this referendum. The "no" campaign could, I'm sure, find much better and sound reasons for getting people to vote no - at the moment you're relying on scare tactics and misinformation which simply don't work.
@James T Funnily enough, no it wasn't. I was discussing the STV write-in before Christmas with Peers - and particularly with the Electoral Commission as to legality.
See also twitition.com/w3cw9 and Facebook Event http://is.gd/r23Ln6.
No need to destroy or ignore. Most politically aware people know that the voting machines aren't on the table and that the referendum costs are sunk whatever the result. You might as well have said it will cost £5 quintillion because these theoretical machines will be made of unobtanium.....by supermodels.....on the moon.
That is the real problem for the vested interests. You can only deploy otherwise effective deceits like this against the idiots. If you are politically aware you may not love AV, but you will probably prefer it to FPTP. Those who simply dont care or those that are so stupid they believe madly costed drivel like the £250m, probably won't vote.
Kiss those safe seats goodbye, lazy elected dictators. You'll be working for us from now on.
I'd never heard of Dan Hodges until I read this article. Turns out he's a bit of a Jeremy ...
It seems to me that #No2AV are obsessed with the campaign because they have nothing to say in favour of FPTP over AV!!
Isn't the quality of our representation rather more important than hissy fits? It would seem that for #No2AV think otherwise!
The comments are better and fairer than the article.
Nice to see you use the words 'up to', when stating the £250 million figure now. Negative campaigning undermines democracy. How can anybody make an informed decision when they have to sift through the endless streams of that people like you put out there. You genuinely ought to be ashamed of yourself.
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