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Exclusive poll: The Tory brand is still toxic

Just 40 per cent of people "would consider" voting for the party at the next election. 60 per cent w

By George Eaton Published 04 October 2011 10:25

How toxic is the Tory brand? It's a question that often occupies the mind of Andrew Cooper, David Cameron's director of strategy, who has consistently warned the Prime Minister that his party is still loathed by many of the voters that it needs the support of to win a majority next time round.

With this in mind, we conducted a poll with ICD Research on the subject, and the results make for fascinating reading. Asked whether they would consider voting for the Conservatives at the next election, just 40 per cent of the public said Yes and 60 per cent said No. The latest YouGov poll puts the Tories on 37 per cent (Labour is on 42 per cent), although this excludes those who don't know how they would vote and those who wouldn't vote.

At the weekend, Cameron apologised for his recent comments to Labour MP Angela Eagle ("calm down, dear") and to Conservative MP Nadine Dorries ("'I know the honourable Lady is extremely frustrated"), for fear of appearing sexist. Before this, a leaked Downing Street memo revealed that the government was concerned about its plummeting support among women. Our poll suggests that such fears are well-founded.

The Tories are significantly less popular among women than men, with just 35 per cent of women saying that they would vote for the party, compared to 44 per cent of men. Little wonder when, as I've noted before, so many of the coalition's austerity measures - the abolition of baby bonds, the three-year freeze in child benefit, the abolition of the health in maternity grant, the cuts to Sure Start, the withdrawal of child tax credits from higher earners - hit women and families hardest.

While Cameron is under pressure to shift rightwards on tax and public service reform, our poll found that a significant percentage of voters still see the Tories as too right-wing.

40 per cent of the public believe the party is too right-wing, compared to 18 per cent who believe it is too left-wing and 42 per cent who believe it is in the right position. Women are more likely than men to believe that the party is too right-wing. 42 per cent said that the Tories were too right-wing, compared to 37 per cent of men.

The results should not come as a surprise. As Conservative MP Nick Boles wrote recently in the Telegraph, "After three years of modernisation, David Cameron had shifted the perception of the party back towards the centre, and of himself even more so - although both were still seen as a bit more extreme than Labour and Gordon Brown. Since 2009, however, the party has shifted back to the Right in voters' eyes and, worryingly, so has he."

30 per cent of people said that the Conservatives "are much more right-wing than me" and 26 per cent said that they are "slightly more right-wing than me."

Finally, asked how much they agreed or disagreed with the statement that "the Conservative Party is in touch with ordinary people", 31 per cent said they completely disagreed, compared to just 6 per cent who said they completely agreed. 18 per cent agreed with the statement and 28 per cent partially agreed with it.

The conclusion is clear: there are few votes to be won by shifting ever further to the right.

This exclusive poll for the New Statesman was carried out by ICD Research, powered by ID Factor, from 23-25 September 2011 and is based on a sample of 1,000 responses.

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Tags: Party Conferences 2011 Conservatives

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19 comments

Tue, 2011-10-04 10:38 — mike cobley (not verified)

18%?? That's about one in six people who are thinking that the Tories aren't rightwing enough ... Tea Party ahoy!

Tue, 2011-10-04 10:41 — frances smith (not verified)

this is very interesting research. i think they started down a road to the right, after the last election, that they can't turn back from now. though it would be nice if labour hadn't make the mistake of trying to follow them in the wrong direction. though miliband seems to have begun to realise that cameron is not a good person to follow, its a little worrying though that for even a second he thought he was.

it seems like they aren't just re-toxifying, they are making the perception that they are a toxic brand even stronger. and the tragedy is they are completely unaware of how ugly they look to the rest of us.

they truly are bonkers.

Tue, 2011-10-04 10:43 — Jack Holroyde (not verified)

If 40% of people voted for tories, they'd have a majority.
Can the polls be shown for both Labour and the Libdems, for clarity, please?
I would be interested to see the percentage of people who said 'no' to all three parties..

Tue, 2011-10-04 10:53 — frances smith (not verified)

@jack holroyde

thats 40% who would consider voting tory, there were about 42% at the start of the last election "considering" voting tory, who during the course of the election changed their minds.

@mike cobley

it depends what the 18% is made up of, some of them will be bnp supporters, and some ukip, and some tory supporters, who think it not right wing enough. so the extreme right is fragmented, and the problem is by moving to the right, to attract those who were so to the right of the tory party that they would not vote for them, they would lose too many moderate voters, and become a lunatic fringe anti tax party, which is what they are now at risk of turning into.

Tue, 2011-10-04 11:03 — Freeman2

We mustn't stop until the 'None of them' party reached over 50%.

Tue, 2011-10-04 11:14 — Marcus (not verified)

People need to realise that the Tories are politically moderate. They are a party of the centre-right.

The UK doesn't have a mainstream right wing party. It has one of the left, one of the Progressive centre-left and one of the Regressive centre-right.

All this talk of extremism is silly. There is considerably more mainstream political extremism on the left in the UK than on the right.

Tue, 2011-10-04 11:26 — Jezz (not verified)

Why arent you reporting on this poll, George?

http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2011/10/04/will-this...

Tue, 2011-10-04 11:31 — slowaardvark (not verified)

The tories representation amongst the pensioners, who disproportionately vote, is far higher. With boundary changes and the demise of Labour in Scotland (not to mention the EdM effect) we need to get used to Tory governments for some time.

Tue, 2011-10-04 11:47 — Arturo Bandini (not verified)

Jezz - I take your point, but personal ratings can change, especially when Cameron's makeover of the Tories is slowly but surely being exposed as mere window dressing and the inevitable concessions he will feel he needs to make to the blue-rinse nimby brigade begin to reveal to the nation that he is an opportunist with a fundamentally weak character.

Tue, 2011-10-04 11:52 — swatantra

The public don't trust any of the Parties, especially the Lib Dems, and they are probably right.
So it looks like another hung Parliament next time round and another Coalition. Ed should be working on his coalition partners, now.

Tue, 2011-10-04 12:00 — Jezz (not verified)

What I would say though is that as the TV debates come back around next time, it will very specifically be a case of Cameron vs Ed Miliband that will decide voter's intentions in the weeks leading up to the election, so I wouldn't be surprised if the Tories do end up with a 6 point lead by polling day.

Think of the large number of Labour voters who voted for Boris in London.

Tue, 2011-10-04 12:23 — Mizar (not verified)

A hung parliament looks less likely with the political suicide of the Lib Dems. And after the failure of the coalition, and pointless pain forced on the poor and middle class, we will have Ed Milliband in No 10.

Tue, 2011-10-04 13:11 — Hugo Chav

I take it the sample was taken from English voters

Tue, 2011-10-04 14:05 — elainepris (not verified)

I believe any government would be in the doghouse. the wars we are involved in cost us billions but all parties seem to shire away from this.
They all seem to be a million miles away from how people feel about rising prices, which do not affect the politicians as it does the ordinary person.

Tue, 2011-10-04 14:19 — Nigel Woodcock (not verified)

delusional nonsense from Marcus, above, who believes that we don't have a "mainstream right-wing party". He must have a different definition of right-wing to the rest of those, or those of us who teach politics (like me). Outright neoliberalism - such as privatising the welfare state, forcing the sick and disabled off benefits, and privatising education, for instance - is very right-wing. It is certainly not far right or neo-Nazi, which is perhaps what he thinks qualifies as "right-wing". But its impact is being felt the poorest and most vulnerable. It is demonstrably right-wing. And in terms of neoliberalism, there are THREE mainstream parties in its thrall.

Tue, 2011-10-04 14:30 — Stu (not verified)

It's too early to be conducting these polls. When the time closes in on the election the public will see three figures... Cameron, Ed and Clegg. Personality and rapport counts towards leadership and electability afterall why would you elect Ed when to look at him now he's totally useless?

Trust will only be restored for the Tories only if and its a big IF, they fix this mess that Labour left behind.

Tue, 2011-10-04 16:57 — Frank (not verified)

The problem the Tories have is that they have lost their identity. This will cost them at the next election. The party almost seems like 'dead party walking. However, they will have two factors to stop people voting labour, and that is Balls and Miliband, can you seem them as possible PM and Chancellor. The problem for the next election is who will we vote for!!!!

Tue, 2011-10-04 19:27 — Sam Flowers (not verified)

The hope for me was that the Coalition would see the Lib-Dem's de-toxifying the Conservatives. Instead the Conservatives have toxified the Lib-Dems.

The Tories toxified Labour too - with New Labour trying to outflank them on the right.

And we now have socialism for the rich - the dark irony!

The global financial meltdown was the collapse of free-market capitalism - and of the five stages of grief we are still in denial.

Only social democracy can save us now. Ed Milliband is on the right track. Whether he can take his party and the electorate with him remains to be seen.

I live in Scotland and hope that Alex Salmond does not prove to be a Tory wolf in Social Democrat clothing via the cloak of Scottish Independence!