Conference 2010 Lookahead | Tuesday 5 October

The who, when and where of today's Conservative party conference.

Look out for

Today's big speech will be from Iain Duncan Smith this afternoon at 14:30. Following George Osborne's announcement yesterday that universal child benefit would be cut, he will be under pressure to articulate his plan for the future of the entire benefit system. Critics of the child benefit cut, including from within the Conservative Party and the right-wing media, have called for the cut to be "softened", so Duncan Smith's response today will be closely scrutinised for signs of this.

In addition, David Cameron hinted in an interview this morning that child benefit would not be included in the planned "universal credit", as it would be tantamount to a "means testing system for every single family in the country", where as Iain Duncan Smith has previously suggested that child benefit would be part of the universal credit.

Signs of trouble

Justice Secretary Ken Clarke, due to speak this morning, could be a source of concern for coalition operatives -- always unpredictable, this weekend he went on record to register his concern that Britain could be heading for a double-dip recession, striking a pessimistic note ahead of a conference at which the Tories will be striving to strike an optimistic note.

In addition to his economic pronouncements, the former chancellor will use his conference speech today to announce new plans to create jobs for prisoners. He is expected to announce plans to involve private companies in creating jobs for prisoners, and perhaps even the creation of special "workplace prisons". Tory grassroots are already reported to be unhappy with Clarke's previous announcements that rehabilitation and community sentences will be used to ease the burden on prisons, and today's speech, with its rhetoric about jails providing "a regime of hard work", will be an attempt by Clarke to appease his critics within his own party.

On the fringe

The New Statesman hosts a panel discussion, chaired by Mehdi Hasan, entitled Gaza life support: Is aid a failure of politics?, with Alan Duncan MP, Robin Kealy from Medical Aid to Palestine, NS contributor Ed Platt, and Chris Doyle, director of the Council for Arab-British Understanding. 1pm, Cullinan Suite, Copthorne Hotel.

Elsewhere, David Davis MP, Alex Deane of Big Brother Watch, and Matthew Elliott, founder of the Taxpayers' Alliance and campaign director for the No2AV campaign, come together for an event entitled Civil Liberties under the Coalition. 3.15pm, Austin Court.

Today's agenda

10:00 Public services - Andrew Lansley and Michael Gove

11.30 Cutting crime, reforming justice - Ken Clarke and Theresa May

14.30 Reforming welfare - Iain Duncan Smith

15.45 Tackling global poverty - Andrew Mitchell

Caroline Crampton is assistant editor of the New Statesman. She writes a weekly podcast column.

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Theresa May knows she's talking nonsense - here's why she's doing it

The Prime Minister's argument increases the sense that this is a time to "lend" - in her words - the Tories your vote.

Good morning.  Angela Merkel and Theresa May are more similar politicians than people think, and that holds true for Brexit too. The German Chancellor gave a speech yesterday, and the message: Brexit means Brexit.

Of course, the emphasis is slightly different. When May says it, it's about reassuring the Brexit elite in SW1 that she isn't going to backslide, and anxious Remainers and soft Brexiteers in the country that it will work out okay in the end.

When Merkel says it, she's setting out what the EU wants and the reality of third country status outside the European Union.  She's also, as with May, tilting to her own party and public opinion in Germany, which thinks that the UK was an awkward partner in the EU and is being even more awkward in the manner of its leaving.

It's a measure of how poor the debate both during the referendum and its aftermath is that Merkel's bland statement of reality - "A third-party state - and that's what Britain will be - can't and won't be able to have the same rights, let alone a better position than a member of the European Union" - feels newsworthy.

In the short term, all this helps Theresa May. Her response - delivered to a carefully-selected audience of Leeds factory workers, the better to avoid awkward questions - that the EU is "ganging up" on Britain is ludicrous if you think about it. A bloc of nations acting in their own interest against their smaller partners - colour me surprised!

But in terms of what May wants out of this election - a massive majority that gives her carte blanche to implement her agenda and puts Labour out of contention for at least a decade - it's a great message. It increases the sense that this is a time to "lend" - in May's words - the Tories your vote. You may be unhappy about the referendum result, you may usually vote Labour - but on this occasion, what's needed is a one-off Tory vote to make Brexit a success.

May's message is silly if you pay any attention to how the EU works or indeed to the internal politics of the EU27. That doesn't mean it won't be effective.

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to British politics.

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