Pulling an all-nighter won't help with decision-making the morning after. Photo: Thomas Dworzak/Magnum Photos
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Asleep at the wheel: what makes us human is our irrationality

We are drawn to some types of information over others, our past experiences shape our present-day judgements and our emotional and physical states affect the choices we make.

I am 14 years old, sitting in my first economics class. We are taught that we make decisions as rational men, Homo economicus. That we objectively weigh up pros and cons and coolly evaluate information.

Rational men. Hmmm. Not only does economics in one swoop ignore my entire sex, it also assumes that we are robotic, dispassionate creatures.

We are not.

What makes us human is our irrationality – the way we are drawn to some types of information over others, the way our past experiences shape our present-day judgements, the way our emotional and physical states affect the choices we make.

Take colour. It plays a surprisingly signi­ficant role in the way we evaluate situations. Men rate women as more attractive if they see their photographs set against red backgrounds rather than white, grey, blue or green. Waitresses are tipped more when they wear red. Football referees are more likely to give penalties to teams wearing black strips than to those in other colours.

Language – the choice of words, images and metaphors used – also has a huge impact on the judgement calls we make. I may not fall for politicians’ fear-mongering, but beauty companies have at times caught me out. In my bathroom cabinet are products that “correct” dark spots, “fight” ageing and can infuse my eyes with “youth”. Really, though?

And how about the British study which revealed that when two groups of psychiatrists were told the same story of a young man who had attacked a train conductor, the only difference being the attacker’s name, they provided different diagnoses depending on what they believed him to be called? When the psychiatrists thought the attacker was called Matthew, they were more likely to diagnose him with schizophrenia. When they thought he was called Wayne, they were more likely to diagnose him with a drug problem.

Time and time again we are affected by factors of which we are not even aware. Time and time again we behave irrationally. It’s not just the way information is presented to us of which we need to be mindful. We need to be aware, too, of the impact of our physiological and psychological state on the choices we make.

If we’re anxious, we are more risk-averse. Stress makes us prone to tunnel vision, less likely to take in all the information we need. When we’re happy we take more risks, are more trusting, more generous. It’s why a country’s stock market tends to rise off the back of a national team’s win at football. (Not something England needed to worry about this year, sadly.)

If we’re tired, that messes with our decision-making. If you’ve ever pulled an all-nighter you will know the symptoms of sleep deprivation all too well: difficulty concentrating, brain like cotton wool, memory lapses. But did you know that if you go 24 hours without sleep or spend a week sleeping only four or five hours a night, it’s as if you’re making decisions drunk?

Are you the type who skips breakfast? If so you might want to rethink that. Fascinating research in Israel on why judges decided to grant prisoners parole showed that the main determinant wasn’t the applicant’s gender or ethnicity, nor even the type of crime, but whether the judge had recently eaten.

If you went before the judge just before they’d had their mid-morning snack . . . disaster. Zero per cent chance of getting parole. Immediately after that snack: 65 per cent. Just before lunch . . . disaster again. Only a 10 per cent chance of getting parole. Immediately after lunch: 65 per cent.

And if you’re feeling horny, well, you probably want to wait before you make that important call. When Canadian male undergraduates were given one of two images to look at – either a Victoria’s Secret model or a neutral object, a rock – and then asked to make a financial decision, the guys who’d been looking at the Victoria’s Secret model made significantly worse financial decisions than those who’d been looking at a rock.

What makes us human is our irrationality – and that the choices we make are influenced by a whole host of factors that have nothing to do with the decision at hand.

What makes us smart is our ability to acknowledge this, and then actively challenge ourselves and our immediate impulse. 

The “What Makes Us Human?” series is published in partnership with the Jeremy Vine show (BBC Radio 2)

Noreena Hertz’s “Eyes Wide Open: How to Make Smart Decisions in a Confusing World” is out in paperback (William Collins, £8.99)

Noreena Hertz is an academic and an author. Her most recent book is Eyes Wide Open. Other books include The Silent Takeover and I.O.U.: The Debt Threat and Why We Must Defuse It".

This article first appeared in the 13 August 2014 issue of the New Statesman, A century of meddling in the Middle East

Ukip's Nigel Farage and Paul Nuttall. Photo: Getty
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Is the general election 2017 the end of Ukip?

Ukip led the way to Brexit, but now the party is on less than 10 per cent in the polls. 

Ukip could be finished. Ukip has only ever had two MPs, but it held an outside influence on politics: without it, we’d probably never have had the EU referendum. But Brexit has turned Ukip into a single-issue party without an issue. Ukip’s sole remaining MP, Douglas Carswell, left the party in March 2017, and told Sky News’ Adam Boulton that there was “no point” to the party anymore. 

Not everyone in Ukip has given up, though: Nigel Farage told Peston on Sunday that Ukip “will survive”, and current leader Paul Nuttall will be contesting a seat this year. But Ukip is standing in fewer constituencies than last time thanks to a shortage of both money and people. Who benefits if Ukip is finished? It’s likely to be the Tories. 

Is Ukip finished? 

What are Ukip's poll ratings?

Ukip’s poll ratings peaked in June 2016 at 16 per cent. Since the leave campaign’s success, that has steadily declined so that Ukip is going into the 2017 general election on 4 per cent, according to the latest polls. If the polls can be trusted, that’s a serious collapse.

Can Ukip get anymore MPs?

In the 2015 general election Ukip contested nearly every seat and got 13 per cent of the vote, making it the third biggest party (although is only returned one MP). Now Ukip is reportedly struggling to find candidates and could stand in as few as 100 seats. Ukip leader Paul Nuttall will stand in Boston and Skegness, but both ex-leader Nigel Farage and donor Arron Banks have ruled themselves out of running this time.

How many members does Ukip have?

Ukip’s membership declined from 45,994 at the 2015 general election to 39,000 in 2016. That’s a worrying sign for any political party, which relies on grassroots memberships to put in the campaigning legwork.

What does Ukip's decline mean for Labour and the Conservatives? 

The rise of Ukip took votes from both the Conservatives and Labour, with a nationalist message that appealed to disaffected voters from both right and left. But the decline of Ukip only seems to be helping the Conservatives. Stephen Bush has written about how in Wales voting Ukip seems to have been a gateway drug for traditional Labour voters who are now backing the mainstream right; so the voters Ukip took from the Conservatives are reverting to the Conservatives, and the ones they took from Labour are transferring to the Conservatives too.

Ukip might be finished as an electoral force, but its influence on the rest of British politics will be felt for many years yet. 

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