Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman and the PSA's Journalist of the Year. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to domestic and global politics.
MPs may have missed their chance to prevent a no-deal Brexit already.
Theresa May’s premiership is hanging by a thread, but more importantly, so is the United Kingdom.
Labour backbenchers know the fate of the country is in their hands – and that rolling the dice has potentially huge risks.
There are not enough Labour rebels to cancel out the Tory Brexiteers, pro-EU Tories wanting another referendum and the DUP.
Commentators and loyal Conservative MPs are worried Theresa May isn’t at the races as far as the argument for the deal goes.
If his younger brother says the deal would make the UK a vassal state, then Boris Johnson can’t u-turn again and vote for it.
The evidence suggests not.
The faction within the Labour leadership that might have voted for May’s deal looks to have been comprehensively defeated.
As ever, the first victims are those least able to defend themselves.
No 10 hopes a no-deal Brexit would be such a nightmare for both the UK and the continued existence of the Tory Party that dissidents will back the PM’s deal. But that’s far from certain.