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13 October 2011

Three reasons Cain can beat Romney

The surprise front-runner continues to pick up momentum.

By James Maxwell

The Washington Post has published an article, based on the findings of the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, laying out three reasons why Herman Cain can beat Mitt Romney to the GOP 2012 presidential nomination.

First, argue Chris Cillizza and Aaron Blake, he is already a top-tier contender. The survey — which is of prospective Republican primary voters — puts him at the head of the pack with 27 per cent support compared to Romney’s 23 per cent (Rick Perry trails in third place on just 16 per cent). This remarkable surge in popularity — the same poll in August had him on just 5 per cent — is due in no small part to his strong performances in the last two or three televised debates.

Second, he still has time to define himself as a candidate. Almost a quarter of Republicans have yet to form an opinion of him and, of those who have, more than half view him favourably. In contrast, most have made up their minds about Romney and Perry (94 per cent and 89 per cent respectively).

Third, as an unreconstructed conservative, Cain appeals to the GOP base in a way Romney emphatically does not – and ideology matters. 46 per cent of Republican voters say a candidate’s “values” are more important than their chances of beating President Obama. What is more, those most likely to vote in the primaries sit well to the right of the American mainstream.

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Of course, all this bodes well for the Democrats. If Cain is pitched against Obama next year, it is not hard to imagine his Tea Party affiliations, political inexperience and idiosyncratic personality combining to secure a second term for the current occupant of the White House.