Support 100 years of independent journalism.

  1. Science & Tech
2 July 2020updated 29 Jul 2021 11:30am

Slow to lock down, slow to stop the spread – the charts that show the ineffectiveness of the UK’s Covid-19 response

A New Statesman data investigation shows the UK acted the slowest of any major economy – a decision that may have cost thousands of lives.   

The UK acted the slowest of any major economy which entered lockdown – a New Statesman data investigation has found – and it may have cost thousands of lives.

An analysis of the strength of lockdown measures introduced during the early stages of the pandemic has revealed that the UK was among the slowest of the world’s major economies to lock down, when compared to the number of deaths it was suffering. 

On 16 March, after 66 people had died from Covid-19, Prime Minister Boris Johnson advised all individuals against non-essential travel and contact with others. It took until the evening of 20 March – and 195 deaths – for all cafes, pubs and restaurants to close, and it wasn’t until 23 March – and 360 deaths – that Johnson made his television address announcing a UK-wide lockdown.

The graph below shows the speed at which most countries tightened restrictions, relative to the number of deaths they had experienced. A country’s stringency score records the strictness of “lockdown-style” policies that mainly restrict people’s behaviour.

It is taken from the Oxford Covid-19 Government Response Tracker – which records when each country implemented policies to stop the virus. Some countries, such as Italy, India, Russia and Brazil, had already introduced fairly strict measures by the time the first death was announced. Others, such as Germany and France, were quick to push through measures once people started dying from the disease.

Select and enter your email address Quick and essential guide to domestic and global politics from the New Statesman's politics team. A weekly newsletter helping you fit together the pieces of the global economic slowdown. The New Statesman’s global affairs newsletter, every Monday and Friday. The New Statesman’s weekly environment email on the politics, business and culture of the climate and nature crises - in your inbox every Thursday. Our weekly culture newsletter – from books and art to pop culture and memes – sent every Friday. Your guide to the best writing across politics, ideas, books and culture - both in the New Statesman and from elsewhere - sent each Saturday. A newsletter showcasing the finest writing from the ideas section, covering political ideas, philosophy, criticism and intellectual history - sent every Wednesday. Sign up to receive information regarding NS events, subscription offers & product updates.
  • Administration / Office
  • Arts and Culture
  • Board Member
  • Business / Corporate Services
  • Client / Customer Services
  • Communications
  • Construction, Works, Engineering
  • Education, Curriculum and Teaching
  • Environment, Conservation and NRM
  • Facility / Grounds Management and Maintenance
  • Finance Management
  • Health - Medical and Nursing Management
  • HR, Training and Organisational Development
  • Information and Communications Technology
  • Information Services, Statistics, Records, Archives
  • Infrastructure Management - Transport, Utilities
  • Legal Officers and Practitioners
  • Librarians and Library Management
  • Management
  • Marketing
  • OH&S, Risk Management
  • Operations Management
  • Planning, Policy, Strategy
  • Printing, Design, Publishing, Web
  • Projects, Programs and Advisors
  • Property, Assets and Fleet Management
  • Public Relations and Media
  • Purchasing and Procurement
  • Quality Management
  • Science and Technical Research and Development
  • Security and Law Enforcement
  • Service Delivery
  • Sport and Recreation
  • Travel, Accommodation, Tourism
  • Wellbeing, Community / Social Services
Visit our privacy Policy for more information about our services, how New Statesman Media Group may use, process and share your personal data, including information on your rights in respect of your personal data and how you can unsubscribe from future marketing communications.
THANK YOU

But the UK is notable for having the only convex shaped graph – indicating that the government allowed deaths to start rising before implementing restrictions.

Content from our partners
A better future starts at home
How to create an inclusive workplace and embrace neurodiversity
Universal Credit falls short of covering the bare essentials. That needs to change
 

*/

The analysis comes as the New Statesman publishes a special issue – Anatomy of a Crisis” (out today) – examining in detail the British government’s response to the coronavirus pandemic.

The full analysis compares 14 major world economies across more than 40 data points, building a picture of how well countries have dealt with Covid-19. It finds that, despite being theoretically well-prepared for a pandemic, the UK acted far too slowly – with devastating consequences.

Britain has also been among the slowest countries to descend from its epidemiological peak. Based on a rolling weekly average, it recorded the highest number of deaths on 14 April. However it took 59 days for the daily death toll to fall to 20 per cent of the peak level – the slowest of any of the countries we analysed that had reached this point.

Italy’s death figures fell by 20 per cent 49 days after the peak was reached, Canada’s after 47 days, and Spain’s after 42 days. It took France 34 days, Japan 30 days, and Germany and South Korea just 27 days. Other countries – such as Brazil, Russia, and now the US, are still seeing the number of deaths rise.

 

*/

The UK also opted to ease lockdown restrictions when its death rate was still far higher than that of other countries. Britain recorded around seven deaths per million people on the day it eased restrictions – compared to five in Italy, three in France, and one in Germany. But it remains too early to say exactly how lockdown speed relates to the number of deaths.

Professor Neil Ferguson – who was advising the government at the time of lockdown – told MPs that introducing lockdown measures a week earlier would have reduced the final death toll by half – saving tens of thousands of lives.

He said: “The measures, given what we knew about the virus then, were warranted. Certainly had we introduced them earlier we’d have seen many fewer deaths.”

However, a recent study by researchers at Virginia Commonwealth University suggested that while international travel restrictions did have an effect on death rates, lockdowns in general did not have a statistically significant effect on mortality, and that other factors may play a more important role in reducing the death toll – such as governments encouraging the use of masks.

The researchers found that in countries with cultural norms or government policies supporting public mask-wearing, Covid-19 mortality per capita increased by just 8 per cent each week on average, compared to 54 per cent each week in other countries.

“Anatomy of a Crisis: How the government failed us over coronavirus” is available on newsstands from today