13 June 2012updated 07 Jun 2021 4:22pm

There’s something everyone has missed about the Brecon by-election

BRECON, UNITED KINGDOM - AUGUST 02: By-election victor and Welsh Lib Dem leader Jane Dodds MP poses with Lib Dem leader Jo Swinson MP, Kirsty Williams AM and party activists at a photocall to celebrate the victory in the Garden of the Castle Hotel, Castle Square on August 2, 2019 in Brecon , Wales. The Liberal Democrat, Jane Dodds overturned an 8,038 majority beating Conservative Chris Davies by 1,425 votes, leaving the new PM Boris Johnson with a Commons working majority of just one. The by-election was called after Chris Davies, who had held the Brecon and Radnorshire seat for the Conservative Party since the 2015 general election, was unseated by a recall petition. (Photo by Matthew Horwood/Getty Images)

Last week, the Liberal Democrats increased their parliamentary representation to 13 by winning the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election.

The most important thing is that the result wasn’t a surprise. I say that for several reasons. The obvious one is that had the Liberal Democrats failed to win it, the feel-good factor around the party would have dissipated and Jo Swinson’s leadership could have been wrecked almost on day one.

But the more important one is that the Brecon and Radnorshire result is essentially exactly what we’d expect given the polls. That’s important because when the polls have been off, by-elections have tended to provide hints that they weren’t functioning properly. In the 2010-5 parliament, Labour consistently did worse than we’d have expected them to do from the polls at the time.

The problem is, with four parties bunched fairly close together, that all of the polls that are “about right” could mean wildly different things, and also that the polls are right now doesn’t mean they will necessarily play out that way in a general election.

We don’t know to what extent there will be tactical voting in England, Scotland and Wales and if there is, we don’t know on what lines they will be. If there is a great deal of tactical voting on constitutional lines in Scotland that is good news for the Conservatives and would mean they do better than the polls suggest. If there is a great deal of tactical voting on Remain-Leave lines in England then that will be bad news for the Conservatives.

But for now, the significant lesson of Brecon and Radnorshire is that the polls seem to be doing about right.