The Staggers 29 June 2016 Theresa May takes early lead in the Conservative leadership race The first poll of the Tory contest puts the Home Secretary well out in front Photo: Getty Sign UpGet the New Statesman's Morning Call email. Sign-up Theresa May, the Home Secretary is well ahead among Conservative members according to a new YouGov poll for the Times. She is both the preferred first choice of a plurality of members from an open field (she secures 37 per cent of the vote, with her nearest rival, Boris Johnson, 10 points behind) and roundly trounces Johnson with 55 per cent to 38 per cent. In all other head-to-heads, Johnson wins comfortably. Although YouGov have a patchy recent record in national contests - they predicted the London mayoral victory but failed to foresee the Conservative majority or the Brexit vote - they are four for four as far as internal party contests are concerned, having accurately predicted both the result and the final vote share of the 2015 and 2010 Labour leadership contests and the 2005 and 2001 Conservative contests. › Jeremy Corbyn fights to the last in the war both sides knew would come Stephen Bush is political editor of the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to domestic and global politics. Subscribe For more great writing from our award-winning journalists subscribe for just £1 per month!