To understand the scale of Labour’s problem in 2026, you only need to look at 2025. Polling in the mid-20s, the party went on to lose two-thirds of its seats in the English local elections – the worst result in living memory. Today, Labour is polling around 19 per cent. The party must defend boroughs across London, the West Midlands, the North East and the North West. Not to mention the devolved elections in Scotland and Wales.
There are just over 5,000 English council seats up for grabs this year. Labour is defending more than 2,500 of them and looks unlikely to retain even a third. The Britain Elects forecast is brutal. It suggests Labour could fall from first to fifth, winning just 616 seats – a loss of around 1,941. Reform is projected to triumph with more than 1,500 seats. The Greens could surge from a handful to more than 1,000. The Conservatives are expected to lose just under half their seats, while the Lib Dems may add a few dozen.
It is worth noting that modelling contests decided on relatively low turnout inevitably produces some uncertainty. But the outlook for Labour is unarguably bleak. The party could lose anywhere from six in ten to as many as eight in ten of the seats it is defending. Green gains could range from 900 to 1,300 seats. The Lib Dems, Conservatives and Labour are effectively competing for third place. Yet Labour alone could fall as low as 490 seats.
Independents remain the great unknown. The forecast places them between 170 and 200 seats – a figure that may prove conservative.
At council level, the projected shifts are no less dramatic.
Runcorn – site of last year’s pivotal Labour defeat – now looks set to elect Reform councillors in wards that only months ago Labour candidates considered safe. Sunderland, likely to declare early, is forecast to flip from a Labour majority to Reform control without so much as a recount. Barking and Dagenham may see a Reform presence exceeding what the BNP achieved in 2006. Thurrock: Reform sweep. Basildon: Reform sweep. Essex: Reform gain. Even Dudley, long a Conservative stronghold, appears set to feel the force of the Reform tide.
The Greens, meanwhile, are projected to win a majority of wards in Hackney and surge in Lambeth, Newham, Lewisham, Hastings, Oxford, and parts of Manchester. In Birmingham, no party is expected to secure more than a quarter of the seats, pointing to fraught coalition negotiations. The Greens’ relationship with Britain’s Muslim vote is an emerging factor: their emphatic win in Gorton and Denton was driven largely by consolidating that vote. If replicated nationally, it could see them eclipse local “pro-Gaza” independents – even in places like Tower Hamlets. The model suggests this is happening, though it may be overstating the scale.
The key question for the Conservatives is whether they face total collapse or more selective losses. In places like Newcastle-under-Lyme and Harlow, not all Conservative seats are projected to fall to Reform, and the same holds for more affluent parts of West Lancashire. Barnet, Westminster and Wandsworth all show some Labour wards returning to Conservative hands. There will be Conservative gains this year, and it would not be unreasonable for their performance in London to be hailed as the bright spot of their night.
Which brings us to the Lib Dems. Their strategy remains unchanged: consolidate where they already have a parliamentary base, and target gains where they see opportunity. Their general election surge still requires embedding in certain areas. The new Surrey authorities are prime targets, and the forecast anticipates majority control in both. Fail there, and something has gone wrong for Britain’s centrist also-rans.
Analysis of this year’s local elections will inevitably draw comparisons with the past. In 2000, Labour suffered a heavy blow from a resurgent Conservative Party, yet Tony Blair went on to win comfortably in 2001. But this is a poor comparison. Labour lost roughly one in three seats then; now it faces losses more than twice that scale.
By historical standards, what may unfold from 2025 onwards is virtually without precedent. During the coalition years, the Lib Dems were mauled by both Labour and the Conservatives – the image of Nick Clegg, “saddened and upset”, defined much of that period. Yet their losses amounted to only a quarter to half of what they were defending. In the mid-1990s, the Conservatives lost around half their seats to New Labour, paving the way for the 1997 landslide. Labour’s own losses in 1976 reached only half of that again. Nothing in recent political history normalises what may be coming for Labour – or for the Conservatives. These are not normal times. But they are our times. Let’s see what happens next.
[Further reading: Keir Starmer will not go gently]
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