View all newsletters
Sign up to our newsletters

Support 110 years of independent journalism.

  1. Politics
5 October 2018

A Brexit deal is “very close” – but it’s irrelevant if May can’t win over her party

It would only take seven Tory Brexiteer ultras voting against the deal for the government to be in dangerous territory.

By Stephen Bush

Crisis over? Markets are up this morning following reports from Reuters that EU officials told diplomats that a deal between the European Union and the United Kingdom is “very close”.

The dates that matter: 17-18 October and 17-18 November, the two summits at which the UK and the EU26 will hope to hammer out a deal.

But the reality is that the difficulty for any deal has never been whether Theresa May would reach an accord but whether parliament would approve it. The PM long ago signalled that as far as the trade-off between freedom and market access goes, she is firmly on the side of market access and that when push comes to shove, she chooses caving over the cliff edge.

Something that hasn’t been appreciated about the government’s ludicrous proposal on skilled and unskilled migration: the only way those plans can possibly be economically workable is if your expectation that the UK will make a generous offer on something that looks a hell of a lot like free movement in trade talks.

The question is whether or not parliament feels the same way. The assumption among most Conservative Remainers and Chequers loyalists is that Brexit ultras will stomp their feet but they won’t, come the crunch, vote against the Withdrawal Agreement when it comes before the House.

Select and enter your email address Your weekly guide to the best writing on ideas, politics, books and culture every Saturday. The best way to sign up for The Saturday Read is via saturdayread.substack.com The New Statesman's quick and essential guide to the news and politics of the day. The best way to sign up for Morning Call is via morningcall.substack.com Our Thursday ideas newsletter, delving into philosophy, criticism, and intellectual history. The best way to sign up for The Salvo is via thesalvo.substack.com Stay up to date with NS events, subscription offers & updates. Weekly analysis of the shift to a new economy from the New Statesman's Spotlight on Policy team. The best way to sign up for The Green Transition is via spotlightonpolicy.substack.com
  • Administration / Office
  • Arts and Culture
  • Board Member
  • Business / Corporate Services
  • Client / Customer Services
  • Communications
  • Construction, Works, Engineering
  • Education, Curriculum and Teaching
  • Environment, Conservation and NRM
  • Facility / Grounds Management and Maintenance
  • Finance Management
  • Health - Medical and Nursing Management
  • HR, Training and Organisational Development
  • Information and Communications Technology
  • Information Services, Statistics, Records, Archives
  • Infrastructure Management - Transport, Utilities
  • Legal Officers and Practitioners
  • Librarians and Library Management
  • Management
  • Marketing
  • OH&S, Risk Management
  • Operations Management
  • Planning, Policy, Strategy
  • Printing, Design, Publishing, Web
  • Projects, Programs and Advisors
  • Property, Assets and Fleet Management
  • Public Relations and Media
  • Purchasing and Procurement
  • Quality Management
  • Science and Technical Research and Development
  • Security and Law Enforcement
  • Service Delivery
  • Sport and Recreation
  • Travel, Accommodation, Tourism
  • Wellbeing, Community / Social Services
Visit our privacy Policy for more information about our services, how Progressive Media Investments may use, process and share your personal data, including information on your rights in respect of your personal data and how you can unsubscribe from future marketing communications.
THANK YOU

That’s certainly true of most die-hard Brexiteers. But it only needs to be false of about seven of them for the government to be in dangerous territory. And don’t forget that the British parliament will be back here again at the end of 2020 when the transition period is due to end. The UK might not be out of the woods just yet.

Content from our partners
What is the UK’s vision for its tech sector?
Inside the UK's enduring love for chocolate
Unlocking the potential of a national asset, St Pancras International

Select and enter your email address Your weekly guide to the best writing on ideas, politics, books and culture every Saturday. The best way to sign up for The Saturday Read is via saturdayread.substack.com The New Statesman's quick and essential guide to the news and politics of the day. The best way to sign up for Morning Call is via morningcall.substack.com Our Thursday ideas newsletter, delving into philosophy, criticism, and intellectual history. The best way to sign up for The Salvo is via thesalvo.substack.com Stay up to date with NS events, subscription offers & updates. Weekly analysis of the shift to a new economy from the New Statesman's Spotlight on Policy team. The best way to sign up for The Green Transition is via spotlightonpolicy.substack.com
  • Administration / Office
  • Arts and Culture
  • Board Member
  • Business / Corporate Services
  • Client / Customer Services
  • Communications
  • Construction, Works, Engineering
  • Education, Curriculum and Teaching
  • Environment, Conservation and NRM
  • Facility / Grounds Management and Maintenance
  • Finance Management
  • Health - Medical and Nursing Management
  • HR, Training and Organisational Development
  • Information and Communications Technology
  • Information Services, Statistics, Records, Archives
  • Infrastructure Management - Transport, Utilities
  • Legal Officers and Practitioners
  • Librarians and Library Management
  • Management
  • Marketing
  • OH&S, Risk Management
  • Operations Management
  • Planning, Policy, Strategy
  • Printing, Design, Publishing, Web
  • Projects, Programs and Advisors
  • Property, Assets and Fleet Management
  • Public Relations and Media
  • Purchasing and Procurement
  • Quality Management
  • Science and Technical Research and Development
  • Security and Law Enforcement
  • Service Delivery
  • Sport and Recreation
  • Travel, Accommodation, Tourism
  • Wellbeing, Community / Social Services
Visit our privacy Policy for more information about our services, how Progressive Media Investments may use, process and share your personal data, including information on your rights in respect of your personal data and how you can unsubscribe from future marketing communications.
THANK YOU