Revised Ashcroft polling shows Nick Clegg could lose his seat

Ashcroft's poll for Sheffield Hallam, having been revised, shows the Lib Dem leader three points behind Labour.

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The pollster Lord Ashcroft published the results of his polling in Sheffield Hallam, Nick Clegg's seat, last November. The results showed that the Lib Dem leader had a three-point lead over Labour in his constituency. But the results have been revised and republished today, and show that Clegg is actually three points behind Labour in his own patch.

Lord Ashcroft outlines the revised results on his website:

The data has now been corrected, and the upshot is that in Sheffield Hallam, rather than having a three-point lead Nick Clegg should have been three points behind Labour:

LAB 30%, LDEM 27%, CON 19%, UKIP 13%, GRN 10%.

These results follow another poll that emerged this week from Survation showing the Lib Dems ten points behind Labour in the constituency. Although we can't take a handful of polls as a prediction of the bleak political future of our Deputy Prime Minister, he does now have a fight on his hands to ensure he keeps his seat in May.

Here's some of our analysis of Clegg's prospects:


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It's also worth noting that a couple of other Ashcroft polls were corrected today. 

Thanet South:

In the seat where Nigel Farage is running, the Tories face a tighter race with Ukip than thought back in November. Rather than a five-point Tory lead, Ashcroft has found that they actually only have a one-point lead over Farage.

CON 33%, UKIP 32%, LAB 26%, LIB DEM 4%, GRN 3%

Doncaster North:

Ed Miliband is a full 30 points ahead of his nearest opponent, Ukip.

LAB 55%, UKIP 25%, CON 13%, LIB DEM 4%, GRN 2%

Anoosh Chakelian is senior writer at the New Statesman.