We took a brief look at Ashcroft’s marginal polls last month, when we showed that the incumbency effect is not helping Tories in the closest Tory-Labour marginals, and is working against them in their battles against the Lib Dems.
But we are now bringing together all of Ashcroft’s polling in one place, which he has published six rounds of since he began in late May. By doing so we can look at how many seats each party seems likely to win next year.
Ashcroft has polled 65 constituencies over the past five months, 31 of which he has polled twice. These can be divided into five types: Tory-Labour marginals (seats the Tories are trying to win from Labour), Labour-Tory marginals (seats Labour are trying to win from the Tories), Tory-Lib Dem marginals, Lib Dem-Tory marginals and Labour-Lib Dem marginals.
In dividing the seats in this way we can also see how Ukip has fared in seat-by-seat polls so far. Today we are taking a look at Tory-Labour marginals.
We are now bringing together all of Ashcroft’s polling in one place.
These are seats the Tories are trying to win from Labour. The party fell 19 seats short of a majority in 2010 largely because they didn’t win in these battlegrounds.
If they are to win a majority this time, they either need to hold onto all the seats they won in 2010 and pick up seats from the Lib Dems, or win some of these Labour-held seats.
On the face of it, their prospects look bleak. Ashcroft has polled the 12 most closely-fought Tory-Labour seats from 2010, and all but one of them have shown double-digit Labour leads in both late May and late August. (Scroll down for full pie charts of each seat.)
Only Southampton Itchen initially seems to offer the Tories hope. After putting Labour ahead by 8 in the seat in May, Ashcroft’s latest poll in August showed a tied race.