Support 100 years of independent journalism.

  1. Politics
15 October 2014updated 21 Sep 2021 5:43am

Will the Tories win any of Labour’s seats in May 2015?

Ed Miliband’s party could start election night with nearly 260 seats, before it even starts winning those it lost in 2010.

By Harry Lambert

The full version of this feature is available on our new election site, May2015.com.

We took a brief look at Ashcroft’s marginal polls last month, when we showed that the incumbency effect is not helping Tories in the closest Tory-Labour marginals, and is working against them in their battles against the Lib Dems.

But we are now bringing together all of Ashcroft’s polling in one place, which he has published six rounds of since he began in late May. By doing so we can look at how many seats each party seems likely to win next year.

Ashcroft has polled 65 constituencies over the past five months, 31 of which he has polled twice. These can be divided into five types: Tory-Labour marginals (seats the Tories are trying to win from Labour), Labour-Tory marginals (seats Labour are trying to win from the Tories), Tory-Lib Dem marginals, Lib Dem-Tory marginals and Labour-Lib Dem marginals.

In dividing the seats in this way we can also see how Ukip has fared in seat-by-seat polls so far. Today we are taking a look at Tory-Labour marginals.

Sign up for The New Statesman’s newsletters Tick the boxes of the newsletters you would like to receive. Quick and essential guide to domestic and global politics from the New Statesman's politics team. The New Statesman’s global affairs newsletter, every Monday and Friday. The best of the New Statesman, delivered to your inbox every weekday morning. A handy, three-minute glance at the week ahead in companies, markets, regulation and investment, landing in your inbox every Monday morning. Our weekly culture newsletter – from books and art to pop culture and memes – sent every Friday. A weekly round-up of some of the best articles featured in the most recent issue of the New Statesman, sent each Saturday. A weekly dig into the New Statesman’s archive of over 100 years of stellar and influential journalism, sent each Wednesday. Sign up to receive information regarding NS events, subscription offers & product updates.
I consent to New Statesman Media Group collecting my details provided via this form in accordance with the Privacy Policy

We are now bringing together all of Ashcroft’s polling in one place.

These are seats the Tories are trying to win from Labour. The party fell 19 seats short of a majority in 2010 largely because they didn’t win in these battlegrounds.

If they are to win a majority this time, they either need to hold onto all the seats they won in 2010 and pick up seats from the Lib Dems, or win some of these Labour-held seats.

Content from our partners
Why modelling matters: its role in future healthcare challenges
Helping children be safer, smarter, happier internet explorers
Power to the people

On the face of it, their prospects look bleak. Ashcroft has polled the 12 most closely-fought Tory-Labour seats from 2010, and all but one of them have shown double-digit Labour leads in both late May and late August. (Scroll down for full pie charts of each seat.)

Only Southampton Itchen initially seems to offer the Tories hope. After putting Labour ahead by 8 in the seat in May, Ashcroft’s latest poll in August showed a tied race.

Continue to May2015.com…