The Staggers 29 April 2014 Election success for Ukip in England could encourage Scottish independence A strong performance by Farage's party could signal to Scotland that England may vote to leave the EU in a future in/out referendum. Nigel Farage speaks during a public meeting held in the Sage building on April 23, 2014 in Gateshead. Photograph: Getty Images. Sign UpGet the New Statesman's Morning Call email. Sign-up Anyone who ever said European elections aren’t interesting might want to reconsider that thought. While the latest polls show eurosceptic parties on course to make significant gains across the EU, new polling commissioned by IPPR and the universities of Edinburgh and Cardiff shows that next month’s outcome will likely differ as much between Britain’s home nations as it does between the EU member states. European Election Voting Intentions, April 2014 (%) Party England Wales Scotland Labour 30 39 31 Conservative 22 18 12 Liberal Democrats 11 7 7 Plaid Cymru/SNP -- 11 33 UKIP 29 20 10 Other 8 6 6 N of respondents 2846 793 782 In England, Labour is facing fierce competition from Ukip to finish first, with the Conservatives falling well into third place. Ed Miliband's party has much to be pleased about in Wales where it commands a resounding 19 percentage point lead over Ukip, which is battling the Tories for second. In Scotland, the SNP is running neck-and-neck with Labour to finish on top, while Ukip lags far behind. Despite the "UK" in its name, Ukip is swiftly becoming the de facto English National Party - where at the moment it can count on nearly one in three votes. Its appeal, however, isn’t nearly as strong among Welsh and Scottish voters. In Wales, one in five voters intend to vote Ukip, while in Scotland support dwindles down to only one in 10 voters. Even though Ukip considers itself a British-wide party, the research shows English identity accounts for a large chunk of its support. Those who identify more strongly with England than Britain are more than twice as likely to support Ukip than those who more strongly identify with Britain. European Election Voting Intention by National Identity, England, April 2014 (%) English only/More English than British Equal English & British British only/More British than English Labour 24 25 33 Conservative 22 31 18 Liberal Democrats 7 10 19 UKIP 42 26 19 Other 6 7 10 N of respondents 943 1160 546 Differing views between the home nations aren’t just restricted to next month’s European election. It’s very clear there are mixed feelings regarding the UK’s membership of the EU. When asked about a possible EU referendum, the Scottish view Britain’s membership much more favourably with a 16-point lead for "in", while in England the "outs" lead by three points. In Wales, those desiring to remain also share a narrow lead. Voting Intention in ‘In/Out’ EU referendum (%) England Wales Scotland Remain 37 39 48 Leave 40 35 32 Wouldn’t vote/Don’t Know 22 26 20 N of respondents 3695 1027 1014 Again, the data suggest that English identity is closely associated with an individual’s opposition to the EU. Those who see themselves as solely or mostly English are more likely to vote to leave the EU in a potential referendum while those seeing themselves as only or mostly British are more likely to vote to stay in. This contradicts attitudes in Scotland and Wales where national identity seems to have no impact with how one would vote in an in/out referendum. EU Referendum Vote by National Identity in England (%) English only/More English than British Equally English & British British only/More British than English Remain 26 39 55 Leave 55 37 29 Wouldn’t Vote/Don’t Know 19 23 17 N of respondents 1171 1508 667 These differences in outlook towards the EU show that next month’s election could have a potential impact on the Scottish referendum debate. A strong performance by Ukip could signal to Scotland that England may vote to leave the EU in a future in/out referendum and possibly push more Scots into the "yes" camp. Labour and the Conservative parties must also be cautious with how they choose to challenge Ukip. Striking a more eurosceptic tone to chase Ukip voters might simply play into the hands of Scottish nationalists. With the Scottish referendum less than four months after the European contest, Alex Salmond will certainly be watching next month’s election campaign south of the border. › In pictures: the story of the Gibraltar/Spanish border Glenn Gottfried is research fellow at IPPR Subscribe To stay on top of global affairs and enjoy even more international coverage subscribe for just £1 per month!