Election success for Ukip in England could encourage Scottish independence

Anyone who ever said European elections aren’t interesting might want to reconsider that thought. While the latest polls show eurosceptic parties on course to make significant gains across the EU, new polling commissioned by IPPR and the universities of Edinburgh and Cardiff shows that next month’s outcome will likely differ as much between Britain’s home nations as it does between the EU member states.

European Election Voting Intentions, April 2014 (%)

Party	England Related Quickfire The Tories’ tax delusion Comment Liz Truss is the future of British Conservatism Politics PMQs: Keir Starmer takes the Commons on a tour of Tory scandals	Wales Subscribe to Morning Call View all newsletters The quick and essential guide to domestic and global politics from the New Statesman's politics team. Sign up here Select and enter your email address Morning Call Quick and essential guide to domestic and global politics from the New Statesman's politics team. The Crash A weekly newsletter helping you fit together the pieces of the global economic slowdown. World Review The New Statesman’s global affairs newsletter, every Monday and Friday. Green Times The New Statesman’s weekly environment email on the politics, business and culture of the climate and nature crises - in your inbox every Thursday. The Culture Edit Our weekly culture newsletter – from books and art to pop culture and memes – sent every Friday. Weekly Highlights A weekly round-up of some of the best articles featured in the most recent issue of the New Statesman, sent each Saturday. Ideas and Letters A newsletter showcasing the finest writing from the ideas section and the NS archive, covering political ideas, philosophy, criticism and intellectual history - sent every Wednesday. Events and Offers Sign up to receive information regarding NS events, subscription offers & product updates. Your email address Job title Administration / Office Arts and Culture Board Member Business / Corporate Services Client / Customer Services Communications Construction, Works, Engineering Education, Curriculum and Teaching Environment, Conservation and NRM Facility / Grounds Management and Maintenance Finance Management Health - Medical and Nursing Management HR, Training and Organisational Development Information and Communications Technology Information Services, Statistics, Records, Archives Infrastructure Management - Transport, Utilities Legal Officers and Practitioners Librarians and Library Management Management Marketing OH&S, Risk Management Operations Management Planning, Policy, Strategy Printing, Design, Publishing, Web Projects, Programs and Advisors Property, Assets and Fleet Management Public Relations and Media Purchasing and Procurement Quality Management Science and Technical Research and Development Security and Law Enforcement Service Delivery Sport and Recreation Travel, Accommodation, Tourism Wellbeing, Community / Social Services Administration / Office Arts and Culture Board Member Business / Corporate Services Client / Customer Services Communications Construction, Works, Engineering Education, Curriculum and Teaching Environment, Conservation and NRM Facility / Grounds Management and Maintenance Finance Management Health - Medical and Nursing Management HR, Training and Organisational Development Information and Communications Technology Information Services, Statistics, Records, Archives Infrastructure Management - Transport, Utilities Legal Officers and Practitioners Librarians and Library Management Management Marketing OH&S, Risk Management Operations Management Planning, Policy, Strategy Printing, Design, Publishing, Web Projects, Programs and Advisors Property, Assets and Fleet Management Public Relations and Media Purchasing and Procurement Quality Management Science and Technical Research and Development Security and Law Enforcement Service Delivery Sport and Recreation Travel, Accommodation, Tourism Wellbeing, Community / Social Services Sign up Visit our privacy Policy for more information about our services, how New Statesman Media Group may use, process and share your personal data, including information on your rights in respect of your personal data and how you can unsubscribe from future marketing communications. THANK YOU Content from our partners Harnessing breakthrough thinking Susan Rienow Are we there yet with electric cars? The EV story – with Wejo Spotlight Sherif Tawfik: The Middle East and Africa are ready to lead on the climate Spotlight Close	Scotland
Labour	30	39	31
Conservative	22	18	12
Liberal Democrats	11	7	7
Plaid Cymru/SNP	—	11	33
UKIP	29	20	10
Other	8	6	6
N of respondents	2846	793	782

In England, Labour is facing fierce competition from Ukip to finish first, with the Conservatives falling well into third place. Ed Miliband’s party has much to be pleased about in Wales where it commands a resounding 19 percentage point lead over Ukip, which is battling the Tories for second. In Scotland, the SNP is running neck-and-neck with Labour to finish on top, while Ukip lags far behind.

Despite the “UK” in its name, Ukip is swiftly becoming the de facto English National Party – where at the moment it can count on nearly one in three votes. Its appeal, however, isn’t nearly as strong among Welsh and Scottish voters. In Wales, one in five voters intend to vote Ukip, while in Scotland support dwindles down to only one in 10 voters. Even though Ukip considers itself a British-wide party, the research shows English identity accounts for a large chunk of its support. Those who identify more strongly with England than Britain are more than twice as likely to support Ukip than those who more strongly identify with Britain.

European Election Voting Intention by National Identity, England, April 2014 (%)

Differing views between the home nations aren’t just restricted to next month’s European election. It’s very clear there are mixed feelings regarding the UK’s membership of the EU. When asked about a possible EU referendum, the Scottish view Britain’s membership much more favourably with a 16-point lead for “in”, while in England  the “outs” lead by three points. In Wales, those desiring to remain also share a narrow lead.

Voting Intention in ‘In/Out’ EU referendum (%)

Again, the data suggest that English identity is closely associated with an individual’s opposition to the EU. Those who see themselves as solely or mostly English are more likely to vote to leave the EU in a potential referendum while those seeing themselves as only or mostly British are more likely to vote to stay in. This contradicts attitudes in Scotland and Wales where national identity seems to have no impact with how one would vote in an in/out referendum.

EU Referendum Vote by National Identity in England (%)

These differences in outlook towards the EU show that next month’s election could have a potential impact on the Scottish referendum debate. A strong performance by Ukip could signal to Scotland that England may vote to leave the EU in a future in/out referendum and possibly push more Scots into the “yes” camp.

Labour and the Conservative parties must also be cautious with how they choose to challenge Ukip. Striking a more eurosceptic tone to chase Ukip voters might simply play into the hands of Scottish nationalists. With the Scottish referendum less than four months after the European contest, Alex Salmond will certainly be watching next month’s election campaign south of the border.