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7 June 2012

Have the Tories won a jubilee poll bounce?

Labour's lead is down to nine points in the latest poll.

By George Eaton

There’s been much talk about whether the Conservatives will enjoy a “Jubilee bounce” in the polls, so it’s worth noting that Labour’s lead is down to nine points in the latest YouGov poll, having previously stood at an average of 12. The hope among the Tories is that the extended weekend will have left most voters feeling more content with the state of the nation.

A nine-point lead, of course, is still large enough for Labour to win a substantial majority even after the coalition’s proposed boundary changes have been implemented. Indeed, as I’ve noted before, the biggest obstacle to a Tory majority at the next election is that Cameron’s party will need a lead of seven points on a uniform swing to win a majority (compared to one of 11 points at present), while Labour will need a lead of just four.

We’ll find out tonight whether the YouGov poll is indicative of a modest Conservative recovery or simply an outlier.

Update: Labour’s lead remains at nine in tonight’s YouGov poll. It looks like the Tories are enjoying a jubilee poll bounce.

 

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