Support 100 years of independent journalism.

  1. Spotlight
  2. Elections
3 May 2012updated 26 Sep 2015 7:17pm

Boris on course for victory

Final poll puts Boris six points ahead of Ken but Labour leads by 10 points in the London Assembly.

By George Eaton

Boris Johnson is on course for another four years in City Hall. That’s according to the final YouGov poll on the London mayoral election, which gives Boris a six-point lead over Ken Livingstone (53-47 per cent) once second preferences have been allocated. In the 2004 and 2008 mayoral elections, YouGov predicted the result to within one per cent, so it would require a dramatic upset for Ken to win.

Indeed, so inevitable does a Boris victory now seem (Paddy Power has already paid out £20,000 to the punters) that some Conservative strategists fear an adverse effect on Tory turnout, allowing Ken in through the back door. When all responses are taken into account (rather than those of people “certain to vote”), the final round is a dead heat between Boris and Ken with both on 50 per cent.

Yet while Ken is struggling, Labour is thriving. The party enjoys a 13-point lead in London (47-34 per cent) and a 10-point lead over the Tories in the London Assembly election. If Boris wins, it will be in spite of the fact that he is a Tory, rather than because he is. In a country where his party trails Labour by 10 points, he is that increasingly rare thing: a popular Conservative.

Sign up for The New Statesman’s newsletters Tick the boxes of the newsletters you would like to receive. Quick and essential guide to domestic and global politics from the New Statesman's politics team. The best of the New Statesman, delivered to your inbox every weekday morning. The New Statesman’s global affairs newsletter, every Monday and Friday. A handy, three-minute glance at the week ahead in companies, markets, regulation and investment, landing in your inbox every Monday morning. Our weekly culture newsletter – from books and art to pop culture and memes – sent every Friday. A weekly round-up of some of the best articles featured in the most recent issue of the New Statesman, sent each Saturday. A weekly dig into the New Statesman’s archive of over 100 years of stellar and influential journalism, sent each Wednesday. Sign up to receive information regarding NS events, subscription offers & product updates.
I consent to New Statesman Media Group collecting my details provided via this form in accordance with the Privacy Policy