Support 100 years of independent journalism.

  1. Politics
22 November 2009

Labour slashes Tory lead to 6 points

Lowest Tory poll lead since 2008 revives prospect of a hung parliament

By George Eaton

There’s a remarkable poll in tomorrow’s Observer showing that Labour has cut the Conservatives’ lead to just 6 points. This is the Tories’ lowest poll lead for almost a year and puts us back in hung parliament territory.

The Ipsos-MORI poll shows the Conservatives’ support falling from 43 per cent last month to 37 per cent, with backing for Labour increasing by 5 points to 31 per cent.

According to UK Polling Report’s swing calculator, these figures would leave the Tories 38 seats short of an overall Commons majority and just two seats ahead of Labour:

Conservatives: 288 seats (+90)

Select and enter your email address Quick and essential guide to domestic and global politics from the New Statesman's politics team. A weekly newsletter helping you fit together the pieces of the global economic slowdown. The New Statesman’s global affairs newsletter, every Monday and Friday. The New Statesman’s weekly environment email on the politics, business and culture of the climate and nature crises - in your inbox every Thursday. Our weekly culture newsletter – from books and art to pop culture and memes – sent every Friday. A weekly round-up of some of the best articles featured in the most recent issue of the New Statesman, sent each Saturday. A newsletter showcasing the finest writing from the ideas section and the NS archive, covering political ideas, philosophy, criticism and intellectual history - sent every Wednesday. Sign up to receive information regarding NS events, subscription offers & product updates.
  • Administration / Office
  • Arts and Culture
  • Board Member
  • Business / Corporate Services
  • Client / Customer Services
  • Communications
  • Construction, Works, Engineering
  • Education, Curriculum and Teaching
  • Environment, Conservation and NRM
  • Facility / Grounds Management and Maintenance
  • Finance Management
  • Health - Medical and Nursing Management
  • HR, Training and Organisational Development
  • Information and Communications Technology
  • Information Services, Statistics, Records, Archives
  • Infrastructure Management - Transport, Utilities
  • Legal Officers and Practitioners
  • Librarians and Library Management
  • Management
  • Marketing
  • OH&S, Risk Management
  • Operations Management
  • Planning, Policy, Strategy
  • Printing, Design, Publishing, Web
  • Projects, Programs and Advisors
  • Property, Assets and Fleet Management
  • Public Relations and Media
  • Purchasing and Procurement
  • Quality Management
  • Science and Technical Research and Development
  • Security and Law Enforcement
  • Service Delivery
  • Sport and Recreation
  • Travel, Accommodation, Tourism
  • Wellbeing, Community / Social Services
Visit our privacy Policy for more information about our services, how New Statesman Media Group may use, process and share your personal data, including information on your rights in respect of your personal data and how you can unsubscribe from future marketing communications.

Labour: 286 seats (-70)

Liberal Democrats: 45 seats (-17)

The fieldwork for the poll was done last weekend, shortly after Labour’s convincing victory in the Glasgow North-East by-election, which is likely to have boosted the party.

It’s dangerous to read too much into one poll, but these are clearly fantastic figures for Labour six months ahead of a general election.

It was remarkably naive and premature of the Guardian to suggest on Tuesday that Cameron was “closing the deal” with the electorate.

Labour will be justly cheered by this result and the Tories will be more than a little rattled. For the first time in months, the political momentum is with Gordon Brown. The next week should be interesting.

 

Sign up to the New Statesman newsletter and receive weekly updates from the team

Topics in this article :