What story do the polls tell?

Emily Tamkin writes:

In almost every major poll, Joe Biden is leading Donald Trump in the polls. But the longer version is more complicated. A new Monmouth poll out this week has Trump and Biden virtually tied in Pennsylvania. Men, in particular, have changed their minds in favour of the incumbent: Trump now has a 19 point lead with men, compared to a two point lead in July. Biden has also lost some of his lead with voters under 50 in that state, from a 29 point advantage two months ago to a nine point lead now. And, at least in Pennsylvania, Trump's warning about the loss of the "suburban lifestyle dream" and crime coming to the suburbs (which aren't wholly based in reality, but no matter), are working: 39 percent of independent voters in the state are apparently worried about people moving into the suburbs who "may bring in crime and lower property values." Pennsylvania is, of course, just one state. But it's important to remember that, for Americans, the reality is that the election is decided not by who wins more votes, but who wins more votes in a handful of states, which is probably why betting markets are now putting their money on Trump.

 

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