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Whose victory in Venezuela?

Both opposition parties and Hugo Chávez claim victory in regional elections in Venezuela. Vincent Be

The political grip enjoyed by Venezuela's President Hugo Chávez has loosened a little after opposition parties made some significant gains in regional elections.

Five of the twenty two governorships up for grabs went to opposition candidates. Gains were especially strong in economically powerful and well-populated areas such as Carabobo, Zulia and Miranda.

The newly created United Socialist Party lost four of the five municipalities in the capital of Caracas, holding on to only the poorest section.

The results are being seen as an electoral step forward for the opposition, especially when compared to their performance in the previous regional poll. However, Chávez’s United Socialists maintain a strong majority, and will govern states made up of about two-thirds of the South American country’s population.

The National Assembly, which is on a different voting cycle, meanwhile remains overwhelming in the hands of government supporters.

Chávez himself did not participate in Sunday's contest, he won a six-year term in 2006.

Inevitably, though, he was a dominant figure in the lengthy campaigns which were widely seen as a test-run for the United Socialists created to unify a number of organisations that support the self-styled Bolivarian revolutionary.

They faced an opposition much better organised than that of the last regional elections in 2004, which, fractured in the wake of a coup attempt.

In an increasingly political country where nightly discussions of socialism and capitalism are perhaps only outnumbered by those of baseball, passion for and against El Presidente triggered a record 65 per cent turnout.

Both sides claimed victory on Monday. The opposition celebrated their advances and the prospect that the socialist may have “lost the heart of the country,” in the words of pollster Luis Vicente Leon.

But Chávez saw his ability to maintain supporters in large majorities ten years into his rule as a mandate for his continued revolutionary project.

He said the outcome “ratifies the path for the construction of socialism”. And in a manner reminiscent of the night he lost the December 2007 vote on a proposed constitutional overhaul that would have abolished presidential term limits and introduced a radical participatory socialist democracy, he congratulated his opponents on their victory and praised his country's democracy.

“Who can say there is a dictatorship in Venezuela? Well, maybe some will continue to say so,” he said.

Earlier this month, a poll of Latin American countries found Venezuelans most likely to say that voting is the best way to change things. But it also found them to be continually worried about crime.

Personal insecurity - routinely cited by citizens as the largest shortcoming of the government - has risen in the last ten years and made Caracas one of the most dangerous cities in the world.

Despite high levels of support for the Chavez government’s policies, which have redistributed oil incomes to fund health, education and food-subsidy programs, many Venezuelans remain unsatisfied with some issues of day-to-day governance, such as crime, corruption, trash collection and emergency services.

The people up for election in regional contests were those that largely deal with these problems, and the opposition was able to make political capital scoring victories in key urban areas.

“The candidates in the metropolitan cities haven’t been able to provide for every need the people have. And there’s a lot of corruption, and things like that are always punished,” said Coromoto Jaraba Pineda, a supporter of the government who works at AvilaTV, a state-run and left-wing youth station in Caracas.

She said she can’t be sure of where the funding for her channel will now be coming from, since the mayor’s office of greater Caracas, its former patron, fell to the opposition on Sunday.

Overall, 2008 has seen key victories for the left in South America. In Bolivia, president Evo Morales handily won a recall referendum vote, the new constitutional referendum supported by Ecuadorian president Rafael Correa passed, and Paraguay inaugurated a new leftist president, former Catholic Bishop Fernando Lugo.

Chávez is an ally of all of these leaders, as he is of most of the left-of-centre governments which now run most of South America.

And he looms large on the continent because of his power, popularity, outspoken style, and access to oil dollars.

Though current low oil prices are certainly a difficulty for Venezuela, there haven’t been signs of any immediate need to dip into the country’s sizable reserves. Barring another referendum, Chávez will leave office in 2012. But the blows to his movement of his exit and the moderate losses of this election may be balanced by the success of institutionalising his ideas into a party and by the democratic advances of sympathetic governments in South America.

Ralph Steadman for the New Statesman.
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Tim Farron: Theresa May is "the prisoner of the Ukip wing of her party"

The Liberal Democrat leader on his faith, Blairism and his plan to replace Labour as the opposition. 

This is Tim Farron’s seventh general election. His first was in 1992, when his Tory opponent was a 36-year-old called Ther­esa May. He was just 21 and they were both unsuccessful candidates in the Labour fortress of North-West Durham. He recalls talking “to a bunch of ex-miners who weren’t best pleased to see either of us, some kid Liberal and some Tory”. Now he sees his former and current opponent as “the prisoner of the Ukip wing of her party . . . I think it has rendered Ukip almost pointless – she is Ukip now.”

May was elected to parliament in 1997, but it took Farron until 2005 to join her. She leads the dominant Conservatives while he heads a party of only nine Liberal Democrat MPs. Still, their reversal of fortunes gives him hope. “After the 1992 election, every­one said there’s no way for a non-Tory government, and it turned out there was. So let’s not assume it’s a given there’s a Tory government [for ever].”

In April, I accompanied Farron to Manchester Gorton, in the lead-up to a by-election that was cancelled by May’s decision to call a snap election on 8 June. Still, the 46-year-old’s party has been in campaign mode for months; Lib Dems spoke of using last December’s Richmond Park by-election to test their messaging. It clearly had an effect: the incumbent Conservative, Zac Goldsmith, lost to their candidate, Sarah Olney.

Brexit, to which the Liberal Democrats are vehemently opposed, will be a dominant theme of the election. Their party membership has just exceeded 100,000, close to an all-time high, and they have enjoyed much success in council by-elections, with more to come in the local elections of 4 May.

However, any feel-good factor swiftly evaporated when Farron appeared on Channel 4 News on 18 April. He was asked by the co-presenter Cathy Newman whether or not he believes that homosexuality is a sin, a question that he answered obliquely in 2015 by saying that Christianity started with acknowledging that “we’re all sinners”.

This time, he told Newman, he was “not in the position to make theological announcements over the next six weeks . . . as a Liberal, I’m passionate about equality”.

The Channel 4 interview divided opinion. One Liberal politician told me that Farron’s stance was “completely intolerable”. Stephen Pollard, the influential editor of the Jewish Chronicle, described it as
“a very liberal position: he holds certain personal views but does not wish to legislate around them”. Jennie Rigg, the acting chair of LGBT+ Liberal Democrats, said it was “as plain as the nose on my face that Tim Farron is no homophobe”.

Farron declined the chance to clarify his views with us in a follow-up phone call, but told the BBC on 25 April: “I don’t believe that gay sex is a sin,” adding, “On reflection, it makes sense to actually answer this direct question since it’s become an issue.”

For his critics, Farron’s faith and politics are intertwined. He sees it differently, as he told Christian Today in 2015: “. . . the danger is sometimes that as a Christian in politics you think your job is to impose your morality on other people. It absolutely isn’t.”

Tim Farron joined the then Liberal Party at the age of 16 but didn’t become a Christian until he was 18. Between completing his A-levels in Lancashire and going to Newcastle University to read politics, he read the apologetics, a body of Christian writing that provides reasoned arguments for the gospel story. “I came to the conclusion that it was true,” he told me. “It wasn’t just a feel-good story.”

In speeches, Farron now takes on the mannerisms of a preacher, but he had a largely non-religious upbringing in Preston, Lancashire. “I don’t think I’d been to church once other than Christmas or the odd wedding,” he says. “I went once with my dad when I was 11, for all the good that did me.”

When we meet, it is Theresa May’s religion that is in the spotlight. She has condemned the National Trust for scrubbing the word “Easter” from its Easter egg hunt, a row it later emerged had been largely invented by the right-wing press in response to a press release from a religious-themed chocolate company.

“It’s worth observing there’s no mention of chocolate or bunny rabbits in the Bible,” Farron reminds me. “When people get cross about, in inverted commas, ‘us losing our Christian heritage’ they mean things which are safe and comfortable and nostalgic.” He pauses. “But the Christian message at Easter is shocking, actually, and very radical.”

British politics is tolerant of atheists (such as Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg) alongside those who, like David Cameron, are culturally Christian but whose faith is “a bit like the reception for Magic FM in the Chilterns: it sort of comes and goes”. But the reaction to Farron’s equivocation on homosexuality prompted many to wonder if a politician who talks openly about his faith is now seen as alarming. Nebulous wishes of peace and love at Christmas, yes; sincere discussions of the literal truth of the Resurrection? Hmm.

Tim Farron’s beliefs matter because he has a mission: to replace not only Jeremy Corbyn as leader of the opposition but Theresa May in Downing Street. Over lassis at the MyLahore curry house in Manchester, he tells me that Britain is facing two calamities. “One is Brexit, indeed hard Brexit . . . and the other is a Tory government for 25 years. We have to present a genuine, progressive alternative that can not only replace Labour as an opposition, it can replace the Tories as a government.” This is ambitious talk for a party with nine MPs. “I understand the ridicule that will be thrown at me for saying those things: but if you don’t want to run the country, why are you in politics?” He pauses. “That’s a question I would ask most people leading the Labour Party at present.”

What does he think of May, his one-time opponent in North-West Durham? “She strikes me as being very professional, very straightforward, somebody who is very conservative in every sense of the word, in her thought processes, her politics, in her style.” He recalls her 2002 conference speech in which she warned Tory activists: “Our base is too narrow and so, occasionally, are our sympathies. You know what some people call us: the nasty party.”

“In many ways, she was the trailblazer for Cameron in being a softer-focused Tory,” he says. “It now looks like she’s been trapped by the very people she was berating as the nasty party all those years ago. I like to think that isn’t really her. But that means she isn’t really in control of the Conservative Party.”

Voters, however, seem to disagree. In recent polls, support for the Conservatives has hovered between 40 and 50 per cent. Isn’t a progressive alliance the only way to stop her: Labour, the Liberal Democrats, the Greens, the SNP and Plaid Cymru all working together to beat the Tories?

“Let’s be really blunt,” he says. “Had Jeremy Corbyn stood down for us in Richmond Park [where Labour stood Christian Wolmar], we would not have won. I could have written Zac Goldsmith’s leaflets for you: Corbyn-backed Liberal Democrats.

“I’m a pluralist,” he adds. “But any progressive alliance has got to be at least equal to the sum of its parts. At the moment, it would be less than the sum of its parts. The only way the Tories are losing their majority is us gaining seats in Hazel Grove –” he ticks them off with his fingers, “– in Cheadle, in the West Country and west London. There’s no chance of us gaining those seats if we have a kind of arrangement with the current Labour Party in its current form.”

What about the SNP? “Most sensible people would look at that SNP manifesto and agree with 99 per cent of it,” Farron says. “But it’s that one thing: they want to wreck the country! How can you do a deal with people who want to wreck the country?”

There’s no other alternative, he says. Someone needs to step up and offer “something that can appeal to progressive younger voters, pro-Europeans and, you know, moderate-thinking Middle England”. He wants to champion a market economy, strong public services, action on climate change, internationalism and free trade.

That sounds like Blairism. “I’m a liberal, and I don’t think Blair was a liberal,” he replies. “But I admire Blair because he was somebody who was able to win elections . . . Iraq aside, my criticisms of Blair are what he didn’t do, rather than what he did do.”

Turning around the Tory tide – let alone with just nine MPs, and from third place – is one hell of a job. But Farron takes heart from the Liberal Party in Canada, where Justin Trudeau did just that. “I’m not Trudeau,” he concedes, “He was better-looking, and his dad was prime minister.”

There is a reason for his optimism. “I use the analogy of being in a maze,” he says, “You can’t see a way out of it, for a progressive party to form a majority against the Tories. But in every maze, there is a way out. We just haven’t found it yet.” 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to British politics.

This article first appeared in the 27 April 2017 issue of the New Statesman, Cool Britannia 20 Years On

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