Nigel Farage could win by running for Thanet South. Photo: Getty
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Ashcroft polls: sealing Nigel Farage's seat as Thanet South?

Lord Ashcroft’s latest marginal polls put Ukip in first place in the constituencies of Thurrock and Thanet South.

The latest polling of marginal seats by Lord Ashcroft is good news for Ukip, may give Labour some cheer, but is a bit of a gloomy picture for the Tories.

Surveying the “battleground” seats – 14 Conservative-held seats with Labour in second place – the polling is noteworthy for Ukip now being first place in two (Thurrock and Thanet South), and for the nine-point fall in the Tory vote share since 2010.

Ukip’s rising popularity means has resulted in it now leading in two seats: Thurrock and Thanet South. It has also jumped ahead of Labour to second place, behind the Conservatives, in Great Yarmouth.

The Tory peer and respected pollster points out that this means Ukip’s overall vote share nationally won’t necessarily indicate how they’ll do in the general election: “their vote in these [battleground] seats ranges from 9 per cent in Hendon to 31 per cent in Great Yarmouth, 33 per cent in Thanet South and 36 per cent in Thurrock”. This suggests, if Ukip can hold on to such figures for ten more months, that Farage and his troops could do some significant damage on the ground, in spite of the national picture of their prospects.

And speaking of Farage, this polling could also tell us where the Ukip leader will stand as an MP. Thanet South is a likely seat for Farage to contest, and he has been tipped for it for a while. Its current MP, Laura Sandys, is one of a significant number of 2010-intake Tories to be standing down in 2015 after just one term, a decision that sparked speculation about where Farage will stand. Of course, he’s contested the seat before, in 2005, where he came fourth. Will the polling’s suggestion that he’d come top embolden him to try the same patch again?

And aside from Ukip euphoria, Labour could also be reading these polling results with a grin. As Ashcroft points out, although the opposition’s score remains unchanged at 38 per cent, the Tories’ nine-point fall in the vote share in these particular seats “points to a 4.5 per cent swing to Labour”.

If the election directly reflects this polling, Labour could win 53 Conservative seats. This combined with gains from the Lib Dems, as Ashcroft pointed towards in another set of recent polling, could put Labour on-track for “a small overall majority”. But rather than having the effect of Labour sitting comfortably and awaiting a replication of this polling in the election results, this is more likely to put the fear into the Conservative campaign machine, which some say has been optimistic about a Tory majority outcome.

Anoosh Chakelian is deputy web editor at the New Statesman.

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Donald Tusk is merely calling out Tory hypocrisy on Brexit

And the President of the European Council has the upper hand. 

The pair of numbers that have driven the discussion about our future relationship with the EU since the referendum have been 48 to 52. 

"The majority have spoken", cry the Leavers. "It’s time to tell the EU what we want and get out." However, even as they push for triggering the process early next year, the President of the European Council Donald Tusk’s reply to a letter from Tory MPs, where he blamed British voters for the uncertain futures of expats, is a long overdue reminder that another pair of numbers will, from now on, dominate proceedings.

27 to 1.

For all the media speculation around Brexit in the past few months, over what kind of deal the government will decide to be seek from any future relationship, it is incredible just how little time and thought has been given to the fact that once Article 50 is triggered, we will effectively be negotiating with 27 other partners, not just one.

Of course some countries hold more sway than others, due to their relative economic strength and population, but one of the great equalising achievements of the EU is that all of its member states have a voice. We need look no further than the last minute objections from just one federal entity within Belgium last month over CETA, the huge EU-Canada trade deal, to be reminded how difficult and important it is to build consensus.

Yet the Tories are failing spectacularly to understand this.

During his short trip to Strasbourg last week, David Davis at best ignored, and at worse angered, many of the people he will have to get on-side to secure a deal. Although he did meet Michel Barnier, the senior negotiator for the European Commission, and Guy Verhofstadt, the European Parliament’s representative at the future talks, he did not meet any representatives from the key Socialist Group in the European Parliament, nor the Parliament’s President, nor the Chair of its Constitutional Committee which will advise the Parliament on whether to ratify any future Brexit deal.

In parallel, Boris Johnson, to nobody’s surprise any more, continues to blunder from one debacle to the next, the most recent of which was to insult the Italians with glib remarks about prosecco sales.

On his side, Liam Fox caused astonishment by claiming that the EU would have to pay compensation to third countries across the world with which it has trade deals, to compensate them for Britain no longer being part of the EU with which they had signed their agreements!

And now, Theresa May has been embarrassingly rebuffed in her clumsy attempt to strike an early deal directly with Angela Merkel over the future residential status of EU citizens living and working in Britain and UK citizens in Europe. 

When May was campaigning to be Conservative party leader and thus PM, to appeal to the anti-european Tories, she argued that the future status of EU citizens would have to be part of the ongoing negotiations with the EU. Why then, four months later, are Tory MPs so quick to complain and call foul when Merkel and Tusk take the same position as May held in July? 

Because Theresa May has reversed her position. Our EU partners’ position remains the same - no negotiations before Article 50 is triggered and Britain sets out its stall. Merkel has said she can’t and won’t strike a pre-emptive deal.  In any case, she cannot make agreements on behalf of France,Netherlands and Austria, all of who have their own imminent elections to consider, let alone any other EU member. 

The hypocrisy of Tory MPs calling on the European Commission and national governments to end "the anxiety and uncertainty for UK and EU citizens living in one another's territories", while at the same time having caused and fuelled that same anxiety and uncertainty, has been called out by Tusk. 

With such an astounding level of Tory hypocrisy, incompetence and inconsistency, is it any wonder that our future negotiating partners are rapidly losing any residual goodwill towards the UK?

It is beholden on Theresa May’s government to start showing some awareness of the scale of the enormous task ahead, if the UK is to have any hope of striking a Brexit deal that is anything less than disastrous for Britain. The way they are handling this relatively simple issue does not augur well for the far more complex issues, involving difficult choices for Britain, that are looming on the horizon.

Richard Corbett is the Labour MEP for Yorkshire & Humber.