"Lame Duck" MPC stands pat and waits for the new Governor

The calm before Carney's storm?

Last week saw the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, (MPC), leave base rates unchanged at 0.5 per cent and its Quantitative Easing, (QE), programme left unchanged at £375bn.

This was hardly surprising, given the recent stabilization in UK economic data; better industrial and manufacturing production figures, improved business confidence surveys, higher house prices and new car sales, and no "triple-dip" recession. Add to this the imminent arrival of new Governor Mark Carney - his first meeting will be on 4th July - and there was little prospect of any other outcome.

However, this may well be the calm before the storm as Carney has a reputation for innovation and is truly "new blood" - unusual in that he didn’t rise through the ranks of the Bank.  As head of the Bank of Canada, Mr. Carney became the first major central bank chief to adopt "timeline guidance" when, in 2009, he promised to keep Canada’s benchmark interest rate at 0.25 per cent for a year unless inflation became a problem. The US Federal Reserve subsequently copied this tactic and there is every chance that he will introduce such guidance into the Old Lady’s pronouncements.

I’d expect this change to be announced in August, or September at the latest, and I’d say the chances for further easing measures sit in the balance; depending on economic data developments over the next few weeks.

The Chancellor recently changed the Bank’s mandate so that it can now give more weight to promotion of growth and employment, rather than inflation control, and one would expect Mr Carney to pursue the goal enthusiastically, as presumably he discussed the move with Mr Osborne before accepting his appointment.

If I had to make a call, however, I’d say we will see extension of and improvements to the Funding for Lending Scheme, (FLS), but no further rate cuts or increased QE, as I feel we have finally turned the corner-but it’s certainly a long sweeping bend, rather than a hairpin. Cheap money is finally doing its bit, the Eurozone crisis is contained, and the US recovery is looking increasingly robust. Last Friday’s employment report was very encouraging and US jobless claims for the week ending May 4th continued the good news, coming out at 323,000, the lowest reading since 18th Jan. 2008.

In a further testament to the growing strength of the American recovery, the daily Rasmussen Consumer Index, which measures consumer confidence on a daily basis, rose to 106.2 on May 5th, the highest level since 2007.  The US economic locomotive is finally gathering speed.    

Bank of England. Photograph: Getty Images

Chairman of  Saxo Capital Markets Board

An Honours Graduate from Oxford University, Nick Beecroft has over 30 years of international trading experience within the financial industry, including senior Global Markets roles at Standard Chartered Bank, Deutsche Bank and Citibank. Nick was a member of the Bank of England's Foreign Exchange Joint Standing Committee.

More of his work can be found here.

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Pro-Trump site “reveals” Hillary Clinton’s “hitman and secret sex fixer” to be… Ed Miliband

Unsubstantiated cobblers? Why not spice it up with a picture of the former leader of the Labour party awkwardly standing?

The weekly pro-Trump supermarket tabloid, The National Enquirer, ran an unsubstantiated story recently allegedly quoting a former Hillary Clinton bag carrier. The source, described as a “hitman” and “fixer”, provided a WORLD EXCLUSIVE!!!! about all the things that Clinton supposedly made him do – involving (hold your horses, America!) sex and money.

The story was picked up by a pro-Trump site called American News, and other murky corners of the internet’s alt-right, and illustrated with an even more bollocks (if that’s possible) photo. It’s a picture of Bill Clinton shaking Nick Clegg’s hand – with Ed Miliband lurking nearby, giving them the side-eye.

Looks familiar, right?

But never mind that this photo was taken three years ago at Nelson Mandela’s memorial service. Never mind that it accuses the former leader of the UK Labour party of being in the pocket of the Clintons. Never mind that even the circle highlighting him was copied from the Mail. Never mind that Ed Miliband, face furrowed in suspicion, hand damply resting on his front, resembling an awkward and aggrieved butler, would be the last person to have the wherewithal to arrange discreet sordid liaisons anyway. It’s a picture on the internet, folks!

Let’s take our country out of the hands of these failed innocuous Bridish politicians and make America great again!

I'm a mole, innit.