Alex Andreou

Asking the questions others are too intelligent to ask

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The real cost of the Libor Scandal

What Barclays and other banks did will hurt every saver and homeowner, says Alex Andreou.

The Shard: an apt visual metaphor for the Libor scandal. Photo: Getty Images
The Shard: an apt visual metaphor for the Libor scandal. Photo: Getty Images

I stood outside the Shard yesterday and looked up. A giant phallic structure, gleaming with rain, as if still wet with spittle from The City’s latest skyward act of financial masturbation. It struck me that this was an apt visual metaphor of the public trying to understand the Libor Scandal – intimidated by its size and the mysteries of its structural complexities; feeling unable to criticise what they do not fully comprehend.

But, at its simplest level, the Shard is just a building. It has foundations like any other structure; it is made of the same materials; it obeys the same laws of physics.

I spent many years at the Office of Fair Trading, investigating cases of collusion and anti-competitive conduct not dissimilar to the Libor case. In my experience, whenever a party sat across a negotiating table and responded to an allegation with “the matter is very complicated”, it usually meant one thing. That the matter was very simple and the conduct utterly indefensible.

And it occurs to me that in an attempt to analyse the Libor Scandal we have become lost in its dark complex corridors and have failed to identify its biggest and most basic impact.

Libor (and its counterpart Euribor) are the starting points for setting the interest rate for, well, pretty much everything. To give you an idea of the size of the possible distortion, the FSA notes that the notional amount of financial instruments, derivatives and contracts which depend on Libor “in the first half of 2011 has been estimated at 554 trillion US dollars”. The World’s GDP for the same period was roughly 35 trillion US dollars. The manipulation of this interest rate by a tiny one-tenth of a percent can result in a distortion the size of the entire Eurozone rescue fund.

Here is a fallacy which has emerged over the last few days: there were winners and there were losers. When the rate was manipulated up borrowers lost out, but savers gained. When the rate was manipulated down, the converse happened. This is a perfect example of the simplistic masquerading as complex. It ignores the biggest and most dangerous impact.

Interest rates are all about the assessment of risk. The discovery that the basic Libor rate on which most such assessments are based was arrived at by collusion and was essentially fictional makes it unreliable. This creates extra risk. No prizes for guessing who will absorb this extra risk. Next time any lender sets its variable mortgage rate, they will be adding a little bit of fat, in case the Libor rate has been massaged down. Next time the decision is made on what interest to award to a pension fund, it will be made a little meaner, in case the Libor rate has been artificially boosted.

That is the real cost of the Libor Scandal. Rendering the Libor rate unreliable, is like removing the bottom block from an enormous financial Jenga tower. It is causing the entire construct to teeter and become more unstable at every level. Importantly, it makes it more susceptible to the next crisis. It may steady itself or it may collapse.

Against this urgent background, I watched our Prime Minister in the House of Commons this afternoon making party political capital by asking the Opposition to apologise for failing to regulate the Banks. It is worth reminding ourselves what the Conservative Party was advocating in 2007 – at the height of the Libor collusion:

“[Labour] claims that this regulation is all necessary. They seem to believe that without it banks could steal our money… This shows ignorance of how a competitive market works. Our aim is to liberate the economy from the burden of unnecessary regulations.”

It is also important to note what words of wisdom the IMF had to offer at the same time:

“The financial sector is strong and well supervised with a principle-based approach. The fiscal framework is good, and the mission focused on how to build fiscal cushions needed to respond to adverse shocks.”

It is vital to take this opportunity and change the culture in the finance sector at a fundamental level. It is a well established legal principle that there are two types of sanctions which have the capacity genuinely to change the behaviours of corporations. The first is a fine of a size which makes the infringement unprofitable. The second is legal action which pierces the corporate veil and apportions individual criminal responsibility.

We are doing neither. The FSA have fined Barclays the risible sum of £60m. George Osborne is saying that he does not think there are appropriate criminal charges to be brought, ignoring increasingly loud calls pointing to the general provisions of the Fraud Act 2006 and the insider dealing section of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000.

So, what are the Government doing? They are engaging in what threatens to overtake afternoon tea or queuing as the most British of pastimes: Launching An Inquiry.

We continue to sail next to this out-of-control Leviathan, threatening to capsize the entire country, and hope to control it by jabbing it with a fork. And we continue to feed it money - whether through the 2008 bailouts, or Quantitative Easing, or IMF contributions, or the latest initiative of providing finance at record-low rates underwritten by the taxpayer in the hope that Banks will lend it on. Our response to the Financial Sector failing, because of its own arrogance, stupidity and recklessness, is to reward it with more of the drug it craves.

We continue to be more preoccupied with apportioning blame and navel-gazing, instead of looking for real solutions. Because finding real solutions, you understand, would be very uncomfortable and politically perilous. It may involve looking at the culture of bonuses on the trading floor, designed as they are to reward short term risk with no repercussions if things go wrong. It may involve having an adult conversation about nationalising RBS. Looking at how political parties are funded and the subjugation of our democracy to the square mile. Examining the nature of greed and what real wealth creation is. Investigating the lack of ethos of The City, the drug culture within, its sexism, its elitism, its rottenness, its sociopathic behaviour. And, most sacrosanct of all, it may involve the questioning of neo-liberal principles.

Capitalism is a primarily male construct and so, perhaps unsurprisingly, it is preoccupied with size. Mergers and acquisitions are deployed to make what’s already huge, even bigger. A significant and growing school of political and economic science has been arguing that size presents opportunities for efficiencies and economies of scale and scope, up to a point. Beyond that point it produces oil cartels which price-fix; corporations that hoard food securities to the detriment of the starving; telecom giants who refuse to pay tax; media conglomerates which openly state that they control the outcome of elections; banks that are too big to fail; aggressive, giant shards of cold hard glass, jutting out from our financial districts, trying to shred the sky to pieces and sell it on the stock-market.

In short, entities so large as to believe they can operate outside ordinary ethical and legal constraints. Isn’t it time to say “enough”?

__________________________

An enterprising blogger has called for parties to return all donations from Financial Institutions found to have infringed FSA rules. I urge you to support this initiative and sign the petition. It is, after all, dirty money.

 

Alex Andreou has a background in law and economics. You can find him on twitter @sturdyalex

22 comments

MydaytabMub's picture

tretwontice
bedefiess
JeagreeGabNah
Dipteelty
bedefiess

aaabbbzzz's picture

Going forward how much will it cost the bank who will be chosen to lead the bank.
In the aftermath of the Barclays Bank Libor scandal (financial Hiroshima) and their greed and subsequent cover up tactics, we studied the future impact on the bank and its franchise in the next 6-8 months using the Monte Carlo method and the capital asset pricing model. This has been developed using variable analysis on a common measure of the volatility of its ongoing business, i.e. its beta--which is determined using linear regression. These have been applied to the latest audited Barclays Bank balance sheet, their Libor rate rigging scenario and inferences drawn with 95% accuracy. The result highlights the following 5 points:
1. In the next 12 months, as its market standing and franchise has suffered, the Barclays Bank group will have to make a loan loss provision of USD 5.75 billion.
2. Their combined exposure (including paper transactions) is USD 1.35 trillion which they need to unwind at the earliest and reconcile their financials/book of accounts within 24 months. Overall loan losses to be written off could be around USD 3.5 billion and thus their paid up capital will be affected.
3. Their International trade, LC and LC confirmation business, correspondent banking business will reduce by about 40 % in the next 12 months as their price/rate quotation/covenants/IM will be seen with suspect.
4. As a result of (3) above, their overseas operations will reduce (some businesses will have to close down) by at least 30 % globally. This will open up a new avenue wherein, in the next 24 months, their overseas business will very likely be acquired by 2 Chinese and 1 Australian banking consortium.
5. The above points indicate that they will definitely need UK Government bailout well within a year. The UK government is already planning to nationalize the bank and make it a pure local British Bank going forward with an Australian as its head.

Mr Bingham's picture

Sadly the real cost may turnout to be the Bank of England wanted all this (Libor Fixing) and ultimately they are responsible for this scandal. If evidence proves this to be the case the Bank of England will lose a lot of credibility and Sadly the finger of blame could also point to the Labour Party.

Again it looks like the Bankers and Elitist have screwed us yet again even though the evidence as come a bit late in the day. I suppose better than never.

Where there is money there is corruption, always as been and always will be.

Alex, Sturdyblog's picture

Are you seriously suggesting that a nefarious conversation referring to unidentified officials which took place in 2008 is responsible for the behaviour in which Barclays engaged on several occasions between 2005 and 2009?

Dr John N Sutherland's picture

Naiive. Whilst I have little sympathy for greedy, overpaid & arrogant bankers - they get what has long been coming to them - it seems quite likely, and even normal, that senior national politicians would instruct them to manipulate rates for the national good.

After all, Barclay's seem to have fixed the rates in order to save Barclays and in order to save us all billions bailing them out. In both cases it worked. Who lost out? Some twits with too much money in the Arab world. Well, tough! Welcome to the long-established world of gambling.

Did Barclays lie about Libor. Probably. Were they pushed into it for their own benefit? Quite possibly. Does that make them bad men? Probably not; just desperate men. More a felony than a crime ihmo.

Livers's picture

Desperate men steal bread to feed their children.

You need to come visit the real world one day, because over here fraud is still a crime.

gezim.org's picture

interesting..!

AnotherTom's picture

"We continue to be more preoccupied with apportioning blame and navel-gazing, instead of looking for real solutions. "

I smiled a bleak smile when reading this sentence, given that it came three-quarters of the way through this blame-laden piece. I say this because it is well-reported that all banks more or less had to make up the LIBOR rate in 2008-09 because there was little or no interbank lending.

An informed piece would have highlighted the structural issues with the creation of LIBOR that allowed for under-regulated bankers to take advantage. An uninformed piece, like the one above bangs the drum for moral satisfaction while doing little to further the readers' understanding.

hugh markey's picture

Dash darn it! With banking deparadoes high-tailing it for the hills with a government posse( not a lynch-mob - Georgie O is concerned about the rule of law, not the law of the frontier, financial regs etc ) hot on their heels, many gods and demi-gods of the Financial Universe are now in the firing line. Will Bobbby make it over the border? An' the varmint's ridin' in Injun country. Will he hold on to his scalp? High Noon, baby. Will those hired gun slingers Georgie O and Dave 'Two-Gun" Cameron step up to the bar. Do they still work for the Bar-B( as in banking )?
Gosh, darn it - remember Stagecoach with a young Big John. Wasn't there a dastardly pompous banker among the passengers?
Now Gabby Hayes always thought they were some hombres who needed hanging - real bad - but in this case he may be right. "Hang 'em high!" Yep, the Shard will make a perfect gallows. The carcasses of these masters of the universe will be seen from a long ways off. 'A warnin', stranger!'
Of course there's always a comedy character in these heah horse opries. Yep, Boris in a frock-coat. And ridin' a Bar Barclays bi-cycle. Heck, this is too much.
Riding Shot-gun

Fulton Eduard's picture

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Darren Foster's picture

Great article.

I just want to bring back public executions, does that feel right for this kind of thing?

Hmmmm, I wonder .....

Rik Mayallsballs's picture

Fvckers

DEMB's picture

On the whole a decent article slightly let down by the metaphoric nonesence at the end.

Bill Kruse's picture

They're not there simply to help the bankers shaft us, no. They're there to help the insurance companies shaft us too.

hugh markey's picture

Let's be having you! Surely all MPs sitting on the Treasury Select Committee will have to disclose whether there is any possible conflict of interest. past, present or future, which will affect their judgement in this matter.
Now that Steve Hilton, Cameron's muscle, has departed for the USA , Chairman Andrew Tyrie can relax and stop looking over his shoulder.
Whilst this appears to be a macho-man committee what with Teresa and 'Jesse' pulling their weight any excessive testosterone should be diluted.

Lynch Party

Dennis Spence's picture

Fantastic analysis of corporate greed. Wasn't it Margaret Thatcher who hailed the trendsetting Yuppies with their thicker and thicker Filofaxes? Thought so. Look where we have ended up. Time for some prosecutions me thinks.

codhead's picture

I'd just find the modern equivalent of Monty Python's "Dinsdale Brothers". They could then be employed to visit each errant banker in turn, grab him by his goolies and explain the realities of not only the current situation, but life in general for the majority of the population.

That should elicit a more reasonable attitude

Alex Daye's picture

Andrew Tyrie has been appointed by David Cameron to Chair his inquiry into the banking sector, in 2000 Mr Tyrie was worried about a leviathan that might destroy the banking sector in Britain, that leviathan was over-regulation by the soon-to-be-formed FSA. http://www.andrewtyrie.com/upload/Leviathan%20at%20large.pdf

Adam Jacobs's picture

"ignoring increasingly loud calls pointing to the general provisions of the Fraud Act 2006 and the insider dealing section of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000"

Not to mention the "duties of directors" section of the Companies Act 2006. Seriously, we absolutely need prosecutions here at the highest level. Otherwise, none of us can have any confidence that the government are not there simply to help the bankers shaft the rest of us.

anon3's picture

agreed. good article too.

anon3's picture

actually not totally agreed. the responsible need to go to jail, not to make us feel better, but because it is theft, unjust enrichment, fraud, insider dealing, call it what you will but it's stealing on a very large scale and stealing is against the law. and if you break the law you go to jail. hopefully a proper one not some jeffrey archer stunt, a proper jail with many people in it who you stole from. actions have consequences, and must have for us all.

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