Is Sarah Palin's tea party over?

It will be if nobody turns up

Reports in the New York Times and on the Think Progress blog suggest that next month's National Tea Party Convention in Nashville is unravelling due to infighting among grass-roots groups. A number of activists are accusing the corporate Tea Party Nation of trying to profit from the convention -- and are particularly exercised over the $549-a-ticket cost of attending. (Check out the Tea Party Nation website: TICKETS TO THE BANQUET WITH GOV PALIN ARE STILL AVAILABLE!!!!! These guys are selling, hard.)

But now groups are actually pulling out. Philip Glass, national director of the National Precinct Alliance, issued a statement as he withdrew from the jamboree:

We are very concerned about the appearance of TPN profiteering and exploitation of the grass-roots movement. We were under the impression that TPN was a non-profit organisation like NPA, interested only in uniting and educating Tea Party activists on how to make a real difference in the political arena.

One of the possible reasons for the exorbitant cost of attending the convention is Sarah Palin's reported speaking fee of $100,000. This is yet to be confirmed, but if it's true it places her not that far off Tony Blair in the unbelievably-overpaid-speakers-who-really-know-the-meaning-of-personal-profit category. (Maybe Blair and Palin should team up -- as a sort of political double act -- where gullible audience members turn up and stuff their pockets with hard cash as they pirouette to the tune of "Money Money Money" on a vast golden stage.)

According to Think Progress, however, the Tea Party rebels are not going to let the so-called exploitation continue without a fight, and demonstrations are being planned outside the convention. It wouldn't exactly be a sign of great unity in the grass-roots movement:

"It would really look bad for tea parties to be out there protesting the Tea Party," said former Tea Party Nation member Anthony Shreeve.

And that's where you get to the beauty of the tea party situation, with official Tea Parties versus independent tea parties and the overriding sense that this is one elaborate tea party spinning wildly out of control. As for a tea party protest -- it sounds so genteel, so very decorous. Of course, it will be anything but . . . Beware the fury of a Tea Party scorned.

 

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Sophie Elmhirst is features editor of the New Statesman

Ukip's Nigel Farage and Paul Nuttall. Photo: Getty
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Is the general election 2017 the end of Ukip?

Ukip led the way to Brexit, but now the party is on less than 10 per cent in the polls. 

Ukip could be finished. Ukip has only ever had two MPs, but it held an outside influence on politics: without it, we’d probably never have had the EU referendum. But Brexit has turned Ukip into a single-issue party without an issue. Ukip’s sole remaining MP, Douglas Carswell, left the party in March 2017, and told Sky News’ Adam Boulton that there was “no point” to the party anymore. 

Not everyone in Ukip has given up, though: Nigel Farage told Peston on Sunday that Ukip “will survive”, and current leader Paul Nuttall will be contesting a seat this year. But Ukip is standing in fewer constituencies than last time thanks to a shortage of both money and people. Who benefits if Ukip is finished? It’s likely to be the Tories. 

Is Ukip finished? 

What are Ukip's poll ratings?

Ukip’s poll ratings peaked in June 2016 at 16 per cent. Since the leave campaign’s success, that has steadily declined so that Ukip is going into the 2017 general election on 4 per cent, according to the latest polls. If the polls can be trusted, that’s a serious collapse.

Can Ukip get anymore MPs?

In the 2015 general election Ukip contested nearly every seat and got 13 per cent of the vote, making it the third biggest party (although is only returned one MP). Now Ukip is reportedly struggling to find candidates and could stand in as few as 100 seats. Ukip leader Paul Nuttall will stand in Boston and Skegness, but both ex-leader Nigel Farage and donor Arron Banks have ruled themselves out of running this time.

How many members does Ukip have?

Ukip’s membership declined from 45,994 at the 2015 general election to 39,000 in 2016. That’s a worrying sign for any political party, which relies on grassroots memberships to put in the campaigning legwork.

What does Ukip's decline mean for Labour and the Conservatives? 

The rise of Ukip took votes from both the Conservatives and Labour, with a nationalist message that appealed to disaffected voters from both right and left. But the decline of Ukip only seems to be helping the Conservatives. Stephen Bush has written about how in Wales voting Ukip seems to have been a gateway drug for traditional Labour voters who are now backing the mainstream right; so the voters Ukip took from the Conservatives are reverting to the Conservatives, and the ones they took from Labour are transferring to the Conservatives too.

Ukip might be finished as an electoral force, but its influence on the rest of British politics will be felt for many years yet. 

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