Is this a transgression too far for Herman Cain?

The former businessman is "reassessing" his campaign amid the allegation of a 13 year affair.

It looks like the campaign of Herman '9-9-9' Cain could have been dealt a final coup de grace following revelations of a 13-year affair with businesswoman Ginger White. In a message to supoprters, Cain has said he will "reassess" the future of his campaign.

These have been a tumultuous few weeks for the former Godfather's Pizza CEO. After unexpectedly becoming the frontrunner in the Republican race, a series of sexual harassment allegations from his past surfaced, seriously denting his poll lead. Cain did his best to brush them off, but White's claims might be harder to discount.

Cain, who strongly refutes White's allegations ("I deny those charges, unequivocally"), previously claimed that the sexual harassment charges were a "witch-hunt" and a "smear campaign" aimed at sabotaging his poll lead. It appears that this approach may have encouraged White to speak out. She told an American TV network:

It bothered me that they were being demonised, sort of ... they were treated as if they were automatically lying, and the burden of proof was on them. I felt bad for them.

If the allegations are proved to be true, it is surprising that Cain's campaign were so blind to these lurking scandals, and that there was no contingency plan in place. Perhaps this is the down side of the very thing that attracted his supporters -- his status as a Washington outsider.

Cain has attempted to discredit her, but the veracity of the claim may be largely irrelevant (as he recognised in his statement, the damage could be done: "We have to do an assessment as to whether or not this is going to create too much of a cloud, in some people's minds"). Cain's main support base is the ultra-conservative and anti-Washington Tea Party, who were attracted by his unconventional approach. This transgression of the Seventh Commandment may be a step too far for these religious conservatives.

While Cain insists that the Cain Train is a still-a-rolling -- "9-9-9, 9-9-9. We're doing fine." -- the question remains as to who his supporters will flock to next should his campaign, as expected, concede defeat.

Rick Perry is a likely contender for those votes, as the gap between Cain and current favourite Newt Gingritch seems too hard to bridge. But for Mitt Romney, the chance to run against Obama in 2012 is getting closer and closer. All his campaign has to do is keep up the momentum, keep their heads down, and watch everyone else destroy themselves.

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French presidential election: Macron and Le Pen projected to reach run-off

The centrist former economy minister and the far-right leader are set to contest the run-off on 7 May.

Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen will contest the run-off of the French presidential election, according to the first official projection of the first-round result.

Macron, the maverick former economy minister, running under the banner of his centrist En Marche! movement, is projected to finish first with an estimated 23.7 per cent of the vote, putting him marginally ahead of Le Pen. The leader of the far-right Front National is estimated to have won 21.7 per cent, with the scandal-hit Républicain François Fillon and the left-winger Jean-Luc Mélenchon tied for third on an estimated 19.5 per cent each. Benoît Hamon, of the governing Socialist Party, is set to finish a distant fourth on just 6.2 per cent. Pollsters Ifop project a turnout of around 81 per cent, slightly up on 2012.

Macron and Le Pen will now likely advance to the run-off on 7 May. Recent polling has consistently indicated that Macron, who at 39 would be the youngest candidate ever to win the French presidency, would probably beat Le Pen with roughly 60 per cent of the vote to her 40. In the immediate aftermath of the announcement, he told Agence France Presse that his En Marche! was "turning a page in French political history", and went on to say his candidacy has fundamentally realigned French politics. "To all those who have accompanied me since April 2016, in founding and bringing En Marche! to life, I would like to say this," he told supporters. " 'In the space of a year, we have changed the face of French political life.' "

Le Pen similarly hailed a "historic" result. In a speech peppered with anti-establishment rhetoric, she said: "The first step that should lead the French people to the Élysée has been taken. This is a historic result.

"It is also an act of French pride, the act of a people lifting their heads. It will have escaped no one that the system tried by every means possible to stifle the great political debate that must now take place. The French people now have a very simple choice: either we continue on the path to complete deregulation, or you choose France.

"You now have the chance to choose real change. This is what I propose: real change. It is time to liberate the French nation from arrogant elites who want to dictate how it must behave. Because yes, I am the candidate of the people."

The projected result means the run-off will be contested by two candidates from outside France's establishment left and right parties for the first time in French political history. Should Le Pen advance to the second round as projected, it will mark only the second time a candidate from her party has reached the run-off. Her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, reached the second round in 2002, but was decisively beaten by Jacques Chirac after left-wingers and other mainstream voters coalesced in a so-called front républicain to defeat the far right.

Fillon has conceded defeat and backed Macron, as have Hamon and the French prime minister, Bernard Cazeneuve. "We have to choose what is best for our country," Fillon said. "Abstention is not in my genes, above all when an extremist party is close to power. The Front National is well known for its violence and its intolerance, and its programme would lead our country to bankruptcy and Europe into chaos.

"Extremism can can only bring unhappiness and division to France. There is no other choice than to vote against the far right. I will vote for Emmanuel Macron. I consider it my duty to tell you this frankly. It is up to you to reflect on what is best for your country, and for your children."

Though Hamon acknowledged that the favourite a former investment banker – was no left-winger, he said: "I make a distinction between a political adversary and an enemy of the Republic."

Mélenchon, however, has refused to endorse Macron, and urged voters to consult their own consciences ahead of next month's run-off.

The announcement sparked ugly scenes in Paris in the Place de la Bastille, where riot police have deployed tear gas on crowds gathered to protest Le Pen's second-place finish. Reaction from the markets was decidedly warmer: the euro hit a five-month high after the projection was announced.

Now read Pauline Bock on the candidate most likely to win, and the NS'profiles of Macron and Le Pen.

 

Patrick Maguire writes about politics and is the 2016 winner of the Anthony Howard Award.

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