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The coalition is wrong to be complacent about unemployment

The latest fall in unemployment becomes a rise if you take out the massive drop in London.

Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith. Photograph: Getty Images.
Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith arrives for a Cabinet meeting at 10 Downing Street. Photograph: Getty Images.

The DWP select committee has given its verdict on the government’s much-heralded Youth Contract. And it’s not good news. The scheme compares poorly to previous projects and is in danger of missing its targets. You might not be surprised – after all there are still over a million young people out of work and long-term youth unemployment has more than trebled in the last year. You hardly need a report to tell you things aren’t going well.

So why is unemployment falling? What is going on behind the headlines? Well, closer study of the figures reveals that new employment minster Mark Hoban was perhaps a little rash to describe the state of the labour market as "very encouraging." What we are really seeing is that in great swathes of the country Britain’s jobs crisis is becoming deep set. For Britain’s women, there has been no let up – women account for 80% of the rise in long-term unemployment since the election. And our construction industry, a sector we need roaring back to life if we are to rebuild Britain, has seen nearly 120,000 jobs wiped out since the election. Whilst in eight out of twelve regions across the country , unemployment is higher than it was in May 2010.

In fact, the latest fall in unemployment becomes a rise if you take out the massive drop in London as it prepared to host the Olympic Games. Even for those in employment, the glass is emptier than you might think. Two-thirds of the increase in employment since the election is due to a rise in people becoming temporarily employed, or working part-time - now at record highs. And that rise is almost entirely down to people who would rather be in full-time work. They are being forced to take part-time jobs because no full-time jobs are available.

So how do these figures square with ministers’ claims that their flagship Work Programme is doing the job? Well the signs aren’t good – earlier this year DWP downgraded its projection for their flagship scheme by almost half. The sad truth is ministers refuse to tell us how they are getting on. The figures remain tethered behind a depressingly familiar wall of secrecy along with the truth about their Youth Contract and the blueprints for the increasingly beleaguered Universal Credit. David Cameron once told us that sunlight is the greatest disinfectant, but if something is rotting in DWP, it seems ministers aren’t ready for the cure.

The time for secrecy and excuses has long past. Britain desperately needs a change of course. We are now in the longest double-dip recession since the Second World War,  the government’s failing economic plan has pushed borrowing up by a quarter already this year and programmes to get people off benefits and into work seem to be stuck in neutral. The select committee’s report should act as a wake-up call. Thanks to research done by Acevo we know that today’s youth unemployment emergency is set to cost our country £28bn in the coming decade – that’s money we can’t afford to waste.

We now need decisive action – not more tinkering round the edges. Ministers should listen to the International Labour Organisation and urgently bring in a jobs guarantee, like Labour’s Real Jobs Guarantee. They should pay for it with a sensible tax on bankers' bonuses and create a fund that'll help us get 100,000 young people back to work.

3 comments

RH47's picture

What is astounding at this juncture is the fact that a large proportion of the population continue to swallow the 'austerity' garbage - almost as an act of ritual self-flagellation (though a fair proportion are actually flagellating other peopple).

We have now had a practical, incontovertable demonstration of the failure of neoliberalism and the free-market economic falacies that support it. In social terms, it is obvious (but hardly a new insight) that employment should be the focus of economic policy, not the reaction of bond markets. The continuing damage done to individuals who are unemployed or under-employed, and to demand in the economy is immense, and will reverberate down the years.

... and yet the government continues to get away with total fictions about supply side problems and the pretence that benefits can be cut to 'encourage' people into non-existent work. It would make more economic sense at this point to increase benefits (whilst clawing back the wealth created by rent-seeking activity).

Of course, there is a logic to all of the fiction, hiding behind the larger fiction that the Tories govern in the interests of the wider population.

It isn't easy to turn around the political weather, particularly if you're a party with a 15 year record of endorsing the same economic nonsense. But it is time that the Labour Party became more active in mapping out a radically different political/economic framework and set of values. Even a principled failure would be a start - better than continuing reinforcement of the dominent agenda.

A realist's picture

I don't understand how universal credit will work, unless the computer system is extremely well programmed, almost to the point of artificial intelligence. It's not about filling in forms online; that part I understand and it is sort of part of modern day life. What I don't understand is how all the benefits can be rolled in to one? Surely the separate forms were to guide people and assessors to the right benefit for the applicant and their situation. So a single mum or dad with a one year old, may get income support as they were unavailable for work. A 2o year old bloke, may look to get jsa and be available for work and a person with a chronic illness, may look to invalidity benefit, until they were better. How will the new system analyse all these circumstances? It all seems a very remote, detatched system and not a massive plan to get people realistically back to work.

Barrie J's picture

Politicians care for two things only:
1. Power and the influence that it brings.
2. The wealth that follows 1.
In this all three Parties are unanimously agreed.

Everything else is 'spin' to ensure that 1. is achieved.

What beggars belief is the optimism that ensures people keep voting for them in the expectation that things may get better.

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