Gavin Kelly

Economics, politics and the reality of the 'squeezed middle'

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These tax cut whispers are about to get louder

Bizarrely, abolishing the 50p rate remains top of the Chancellor's list.

With summer over, the skies are darkening in more ways than one. Economic forecasts, previously strong for this autumn, have long been heading south. Last week sharpened the sense of impending crisis. The FTSE has been shaken more violently than at any time since the paroxysms of early 2009. On Wednesday, unemployment stats took their biggest quarter-on-quarter leap since March 2009. The US and German economies are flat-lining.

Whatever your favoured explanation for our worsening economic plight, one thing is increasingly clear: the UK economy is propped up on pillows, in desperate need of a shot in the arm. It may not be fashionable to say it, but that shot needs to involve a pickup in consumption and domestic consumer confidence. Yes, that jars with the consensus narrative about the need to rebalance our economy towards exports and investment, away from domestic consumption. But in times like these there's no escape from the cold hard reality: household consumption still makes up two thirds of UK GDP. Whatever our need for medium-term rebalancing, domestic consumption will play the star role in either lifting the UK economy out of danger or pushing it over the edge.

You only have to look at the periods following previous recessions to see how far we are now wavering from the 'normal' path to recovery. Figure 2 in this recent blog post compares the four major recessions that have hit the UK in recent decades, looking at the path of household consumption from their onset. In each case, it was at around this point - 10 quarters on from the start of contraction - that the spark of consumer spending re-ignited. As would be expected following a "balance sheet recession"', our current path to recovery looks decidedly different. Today, consumer spending is not a rocket booster but a millstone.

This economic misery is being driven by the coincidence of two things: households are seeing their disposable incomes fall steadily in real terms at the same time as they continue to carry a massive burden of debt. That leaves them facing a stark choice. Either falling incomes mean less spending or households will have to eat into their savings or take on yet more debt. (New research from the Resolution Foundation out this week will confirm the startlingly poor savings position of Britain's low-to-middle incomes households and reinforces just how vulnerable millions of households are to any future rise in interest rates). Only a pick-up in real disposable incomes will gradually free us from this bind.

So how is this harsh economic reality set to play out in our politics? Amidst all the unpredictability, we can be confident about one thing: in the coming months the current Westminster chatter about tax cuts will become louder and more volatile. Expect arguments over timing, over who to target, the potential impact on consumer confidence and spending, and perhaps loudest of all, over how any cut could be paid for.

In macroeconomic terms, of course, any plausible move on tax will pale in comparison to the decisions the Bank of England makes on further quantitative easing. But in the context of a long squeeze on living standards, all political parties have long realised that the lure of a targeted reduction in taxes for at least some groups would eventually become irresistible. Deteriorating economic news may expedite this.

So what's on the agenda? Bizarrely, given the economic context, the abolition of the 50p rate remains top of the chancellor's list, with a review set to report in the autumn as cover for a move. Even leaving aside the glaring question of equity, there will be grave doubts about the economic wisdom of trying to stimulate the economy - however modestly - with a tax cut for the very richest. Whatever you think of the 50p rate (and polls show that the public think quite a lot of it) cutting taxes for those at the very top is more likely to see money flowing into high-end savings accounts and central London property. By contrast, tax cuts for the bottom half of the working population - in particular those low income households who are now spending every penny they earn - are far more likely to help the high street.

Of course, the chancellor must know full well that, on its own, a tax cut for the richest 1 per cent would be the final nail in the coffin of his claim that "we're all in this together". If that is Labour's hope, there is a good chance they will be disappointed. It's no surprise, then, to see recent Lib Dem briefings talking up the idea of reintroducing the 10p rate of tax, backed by a clear message that they want to support those struggling on low and middle incomes.

Such a move may seem far-fetched but it has a powerful political logic. Many Labour backbenchers would retch at the prospect of Tories jeering from across the benches, hollering that they have put right the injustice of Brown's 10p abolition. The Lib Dems would of course revel at the prospect of claiming that it is they who have dragged the government's tax strategy in a more progressive direction.

Could it prove possible to make any sort of move on both 10p and 50p? That would be a significant fiscal stretch. It will depend in large part on the state of the economy; though paradoxically, if things suddently get worse, measures that currently sound implausible could gain a new respectability. It will also depend on whether the Coalition is willing to raise compensating tax revenue in a way that doesn't tilt the economy downwards. For that reason it's significant that some Lib Dems are now briefing aggressively in favour of a wealth tax (as well as green taxes) - and that prominent Tories are pitching in their penny's worth, from outright hostility from some cabinet ministers to more thoughtful support from commentators.

Of course, as the debate heats up, other options will also rise to the surface. For all its economic and political superiority over a tax-cut for the very richest, there are reasons to question the reintroduction of the 10p rate. Some will argue, for example, that reversing cuts to tax credits would better target money to those most in need. The fiscal position, combined with an unwillingness to raise other taxes, may in the end scupper any move in the near future in any case. But wherever the debate ends up, one thing is already becoming clear as the summer wanes: this game of Westminster whispers is set to get a whole lot louder.

Gavin Kelly is Chief Executive of the Resolution Foundation. James Plunkett (twitter.com/#!/jamestplunkett) leads the Foundation's Commission on Living standards.

30 comments

December's picture

Now that President Obama is belatedly joining his family in Hawaii, it may have been worth the wait for the political benefit of the House Republicans refusal to back a temporary extension of the payroll tax cut. The president won a clear victory. Even the Wall Street Journal's editorial writers asked how the GOP's "circular firing squad" is managing to lose the tax issue to Obama.

December's picture

Now that President Obama is belatedly joining his family in Hawaii, it may have been worth the wait for the political benefit of the House Republicans refusal to back a temporary extension of the payroll tax cut. The president won a clear victory. Even the Wall Street Journal's editorial writers asked how the GOP's "circular firing squad" is managing to lose the tax issue to Obama.

Jerry Mander's picture

I killed the golden goose and now all I have to eat is riots and lies. Shame on you lefties who allowed me to go to waste. The scrapheap beckons for this skinny pup!

matthew fox's picture

It all fine and dandy cutting Income Tax, yet VAT seems to be increasing every time we have a Tory Chancellor.

When Osborne gets around to slapping VAT on food, the 50p rate will be a academic argument.

Indu Pendent's picture

@matt

Foxy, you'll need to pop head out of hole a minute and be less parochial.

VAT is a tax on domestic consumption and imports into the UK. We should have have 20% VAT in line with other socialist states and the rest of Europe a long time ago. High VAT relative to other countries (the UK is still relatively low) gives an indirect competitive advantage to exporters.

Labour has a ideology hatred of low taxes and will tax for the sake of ideology - that is, taxing anyone who does not vote for Labour and rewarding those who do even more than can be afforded. Its called simplistic fiscal expansion (government borrowing for the synical manipulation of voter preferences) and was the basis of the last governments policy making.

An ideal scenario would be to have 0% VAT on energy although Gordon decided against this. We could ahve achieved this ideal by being self succificient in renewable green energy - which the £350BN that the last government borrowed before 2008 would have been enough for.

Oh well. "Things can only get better" - I guess you agree.

Avraam Jack Dectis's picture

If we need to cut taxes to free up income for the consumer and we neex to cut spending because we cut taxes, why do we not just shut down the entire government and set the tax rate to zero?

That is the logical conclusion.

PAUL HODSON's picture

The economy is as you say largely driven by household spending. However , it is my belief that tax cuts , whether direct or indirect, will not be the stimulus required. I believe that it is the recovery of the housing market that will be the trigger for true recovery. I do not understand some people's hope for property prices to fall even further. Houses are generally better maintained and have value added on a much greater scale than say 25-30 years ago. This is what has maintained our economy for the 5-10 years before the credit crunch

REPAY's picture

The 50p is damaging tax revenues. We seem to forget that the people paying 50% are not UK nationals and have choices where else to be. The much touted public services in the UK are seen as rubbish by foreigners - notably schooling and healthcare. (If you are American you are also paying US federal tax so you may be paying circa 80% tax.) There is a choice between more tax revenue and electoral displeasure - the trap set up by Gordon (party before country Brown). Anecdotally people are leaving London and watch out for an exodus of banks...

matthew fox's picture

Glad the Right want to the bankers to have a tax cut.

The 50p rate isn't damaging revenues, and if it is, no one has supplied any evidence.

We will see the Lib Dems cave in over this issues, like so many others.

Hugh Markey's picture

C'mon people! Only little people pay tax! The main reason we think 50p tax on high exploiters is admirable is that these unfortunates will walk.
We can't wait to see some of these wealth creators doing the 'perp' walk - should they choose Wall Street.
UK juries never find entrepreneurs, wheeler-dealers,or financial wrong-doers guilty. NEVER. They know their place in the general scheme of things.
And a little birdie tells us the banking and financial community know this for a FACT!

Skint

swatantra's picture

Well it is a tax cut of sorts ... and thy did promise tax cuts in their Manifesto, so I suppose they have some moral grounds to do it. And they've given into the IHT lobby, which is anoter tax cut.
But there is no evidence that people are leaving Britain because of higher taxes. They always moan and winge that they will, but never do. Not any people known that.
The only reason they might choose to leave is because of the sunshine.

Paul Hillyard's picture

Cutting the top rate would be suicide.

Already rebuilding their Nasty Party credentials which took them to the heady heights of 23% of the eligible voters in the last election, any credibility of "All in it together" would be laughed off by the vasy majority who earn between £20-30K per annum.

Go on George, do it.

Luddite's picture

Paul Hillyard
'Nasty Party credentials' Whats the matter son, has the nasty party just ripped the tit of state dependency for your undeserving mouth. There's nothing wrong with tax, it's HOW!!! them fucking taxes are spent.......

Stephen's picture

Am not sure how increasing gross domestic consumption assists with increasing gross domestic production. As a nation we over consume and under produce. Hence the unemployment and the high levels of debt.

p j wall's picture

Good to see Gideon and Flashman have their fingers on the pulse of public opinion!!, Flashman`s been thinking hard about this whilst at the cricket watching england, just before he goes on another well deserved holiday!, so go on Gideon, do it, while we all watch your Limp Dem collaboraters Squirm!, Alexander will justify it as a positive step towards gideons economic recovery, because it doesn`t bring in much revenue anyway, so that`s alright then, because "We`re all in this together", besides, the wealthy need a break!, i`m sure the public would be delighted with this!, We would never question the judgement of Gideon and Flashman!!, because our economic recovery is the envy of the world!!!!.

Sir Michael's picture

I agree Luddite, it is how those taxes are spent.

A massive and generous overhaul of the welfare state needs to take place and every single citizen in the UK needs to be lifted out of poverty. The fact that the poor would spend would mean the lower end of the economy would be stimulated, creating a lot of jobs which would reduce welfare dependency. That is where I would like my taxes to go.

The Conservatives policies on welfare and the economy will destabalize both economy and society, which will eventually cost us all far more, both financially and in terms of the kind of world we live in. The members of the super-rich (of which Osborne is a member) won't feel any of it though.

JoeDeMocritus's picture

It would be good to raise the tax allowances up to the 1997 levels in real terms and get rid of the 50p rate.
We need to get back to an aspirational forward looking attitude to our economy.

mittfh's picture

Perhaps a more worthwhile idea than musing about the 50p rate is musing about ways to clamp down on tax avoidance / evasion. How hard would it be to implement a policy whereby if you live in the UK and work in the UK, you pay tax in the UK, regardless of where your bank account or your employer's bank account is based? Decreasing the top rate of tax would make a difference for the few percent of people in that tax bracket without a cunning accountant, but is there any evidence it would persuade those avoiding / evading tax to stop doing so? After all, if you're currently paying 0% tax, reducing the tax rate won't make the blindest bit of difference to you - you're not going to suddenly decide to start paying tax again as even with a lower rate, it would deplete your net income!

As for the 10p rate, I thought personal allowances were being steadily raised over the next few years towards £10,000, so effectively negating the point of reintroducing the basic rate?

JoeDeMocritus's picture

The State has to be cut right back. People must realise that they are responsible for their wellbeing.

The welfare system should only be a short term saftynet to tide people over and not the lifestyle choice of the terminally lazy.

Eddy S's picture

we need to re-coordinate gov't spending towards infrastructure spend and reduce admin style jobs.

firstly increase the tax free allowance for the lower and middle income ranges and scrap tax credits - we should let everyone earn 15 to 20 k tax free and take alot of people out of tax.

we should introduce a land wealth tax on immobile assets at the same time reduce taxes on productive mobile assets such as income taxes (which are really taxes on jobs) and business taxes (lower corporate taxes for the north, scotland and northern ireland - this will help diversify the economy away from the public sector over time).

we should subsidise all fees for students on engineering degree courses - this is where we will compete in a future global economy and this is where china and india are strong.

the 50p tax is irrelevant and is there for symbolic reasons, in the long term it sends the wrong signals to the international/foreign investment community and will probably end up reducing our tax take but in the short term we can live with it although it will raise very little.

Luddite's picture

Eddy S. Agree..

Dan's picture

So the neoliberal programme continues, tax cuts for the rich whilst they extract all the surplus wealth, shrinking the real economy and forcing the poor into further debt peonage.

The fallacy that we need the rich must end before the vast majority of people can see their living standards rise.

The 50% tax argument is just a sideshow.

Anon's picture

Eddy S, much as I dislike agreeing with Luddite, also agreed. I particularly like the regionally banded corporation tax idea. Not sure re 50%, but if all your package agreed there too.

Anon's picture

And on the subject of degree courses, funding is essential for 'the Arts'. I should think I part ways with Luddite there, but the UK is built on our IP.

matthew fox's picture

As usual Indu Pendent is totally out of this depth.

The reason why Brown couldn't reduce VAT on energy to zero is because of EU Law.

Again I am addressing another Thatcher/Major legacy issue.

crabstix's picture

To paraphrase JoeDeMocritus...

The State has to step right up and reform the tax system to ensure the wealthy pay their share. Rich people must realise that they are responsible for the less well off and their wellbeing, as in Victorian times.

The welfare system should only be a short term saftynet to tide people over but when the capitalist system creates an environment where jobs are at a premium it falls the those better off to support the rest.

crabstix's picture

The international/foreign investment community referred to by Eddy S would be the same bunch of bwankers that got us into this hole in the first place. Tax them yes, hang them preferably, punish them for crimes against humanity, assuredly.

john henry's picture

We're all in this together, aren't we Georgie Boy?

Federico's picture

Labour has a ideology hatred of low taxes and will tax for the sake of ideology - that is, taxing anyone who does not vote for Labour and rewarding those who do even more than can be afforded. Its called simplistic fiscal expansion (government borrowing for the synical manipulation of voter preferences) and was the basis of the last governments policy making. http://www.weddings101.org/

Matt Winton's picture

It would be nice if the press actually stated the facts correctly about the 50p tax rate. Clearly the 50p tax rate is paid by high income earners, however within the top 2% of earners the tax system is highly regressive. The richest people in general have the means to shelter their income and wealth via companies and offshore vehicles. The burden of the 50p tax rate mostly falls on the professional class - it is the middle class that is paying all the tax, not the rich. Taxing the rich can be achieved by other means such as property taxes, the 50p tax rate drives highly skilled people away from the UK and is therefore growth negative. The UK needs to design an effective, fair and progressive taxation system to help fuel the economy.

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