Osborne has stolen Margaret Thatcher's 1980s manual

My conversation with Ed Balls.

I spent much of yesterday marshalling my own thoughts on the consequences of the latest GDP figures (here is the link to my column) -- not good, since you are asking. In the course of the day, I managed to speak with shadow chancellor, Ed Balls, about his views on the data and, more generally, on the coalition's economic strategy.

Ed was on robust form as ever and I thought I'd share some of his insights below. I can't do better than to quote him verbatim.

The outgoing head of the CBI, Richard Lambert, captured it well when he said: "Politics appears to have trumped economics on too many occasions over the past eight months." There is no doubt that George Osborne is a highly skilled political strategist. But he is making the classic mistake of the past 100 years in believing that you can impose a political strategy on the British economy. Cutting too far and too fast may make political sense for the Tories but it simply isn't working economically.

He then went on to suggest that this has all been drawn directly from Margaret Thatcher's playbook.

The political strategy he is implementing is straight out of Margaret Thatcher's 1980s manual: impose as much pain as you can straight after the election, raise taxes, cut spending, slash benefits, make people feel lucky to have a job, build up your war chest and then cut taxes just before the election, hope to win a majority and start all over again.

He is following Mrs. Thatcher's strategy to the letter -- right down to the immediate hike in VAT, even if it breaks a pre-election promise. But this strategy is irresponsible and dangerous. Two decades ago, our country paid a very high price because of the economic mistakes of the 1980s recession and the years of slow growth and rising unemployment that followed. Manufacturing capacity was lost permanently. A whole generation of young people saw their lives blighted by long-term unemployment.

Our society was divided, child poverty soared and our infrastructure decayed. Today, we see policies that are hitting women harder than men -- and hitting families with children hardest of all. A standard-of-living squeeze, which will choke off growth. And we have seen growth flatline in the past six months, compared to growth of 1.8 per cent in the previous six months, before George Osborne tore up Labour's plan to get the deficit down in a steadier way.

You can't get the deficit down without strong growth, with people in work and paying taxes. So when I hear Osborne refuse even to countenance the idea of putting jobs and growth first, I can see no economic judgement at work at all -- just a political gamble with the nation's economy.

The shadow chancellor's comments stand in sharp contrast to the Treasury's bizarre claim, repeated by Osborne and Cameron, that the data release was "good news", as the economy had "returned to growth", when it clearly has not. It's a strange old world when the only "positive" news that could be found was that sterling strengthened against the dollar and the euro, because some in the markets had priced in an even worse outcome. There are likely to be even worse days ahead.

32 comments

jon's picture

@ Luddite

"It's workable economic alternatives, that is required."

So you are saying a plan B is required? I'm intrigued at this turnaround in your sentiment. Which government policy areas do you think need changing/remedying?

matthew fox's picture

@Stu

Keep digging old man.

Luddite's picture

Labour made to many monumental mistakes to be easily forgiven. Ed Balls carries to much political baggage to be taken seriously. Ed Miliband is still yet to apologies and surrounds himself with past-failure, and to keep harping back to Thatchers it tiresome. It's workable economic alternatives, that is required. Not griping retro-polities.

Dave C's picture

"The political strategy he is implementing is straight out of the Margaret Thatcher 1980s manual ..."

Thatcher's political strategy didn't work despite the problems Labour had. Thatcher's Government was deeply unpopular.

What rescued her in the eyes of the electorate was a short, successful and popular war. I don't think Osborne can arrange that.

purpleline's picture

With the record in Government of Balls up and your own errors while at the MPC. I am surprised you have the capacity to make any comment on the state of the economy.

Under Labour the largest recession in the history of these islands, a spend spend spend approach that has got Greece, Portugal, Spain and the US into a terrible mess.
Mr Blanchflower you simply cannot spend your way out of a recession as experienced by the US. Following the Brown Balls doctrine ends in bankruptcy.

Vic Singh's picture

"purpleline

Mr Blanchflower you simply cannot spend your way out of a recession as experienced by the US. Following the Brown Balls doctrine ends in bankruptcy."

Funny that? I thought that is EXACTLY what Roosevelt did in the 30's while the Lib-Con left our economy in the doldrums for another 10years.

Result -

USA = Economic Power house
UK = small Island off Europe and second fiddle to Germany and Francce.

Stu's picture

It seems like Balls have forgotten to mention that Tories 'seem' to be clearing up the mess that Labour tend to leave behind and true when Thatcher took over just like how Cameron and osbourne are facing the same issues.

He talks about breaking promises... well thats no surprise for any party these days... I mean ask him about tuition fees and Blairs manifesto not to introduce them, I voted for him and he broke the promise!

He talks about the politics of nearly 3 decades whereas I would tell him to look more closely to recent times... lets look at the government past...

1) manufacturing sector neglected and reduced in size in favour of deregulisation of banks and the increase and dependency of the financial sector, ultimately when they went bust we bailed them out. With little export trade in place we're finding it hard to pay at least some of the debt off to ease the pain.

2)I think child poverty was/is still unacceptably high when they were in office the social gap widened and more people depended on the state than ever before draining tax payers money and of course increasing the benefit budget year on year. There had been little reform in the system and more benefits handed out without means testing. Reforming the system now will hit families only because they depended on it but the only way to reform is to be cruel and almost brutal if only to change people's mindset of the 'state provides all'.

3)'an infrastructure decayed' he says but with 13 years in government 10 of those in boom and we have seen very little reform just more money thrown in and close your eyes and hope things get better. Of course this means investing money, money we didn't have, money they borrowed and borrowed excessively hence the debt we have accrued. That was Balls policy

4) hike VAT... I believe they were going to increase VAT too ok maybe not 20% but still an increase, not forgetting the job tax he had in mind. - I think that each government plays with the figures, giving with one hand and taking with the other... Labour is no different!

5)"raise taxes, cut spending, slash benefits, make people feel lucky to have a job, build up your war-chest, and then cut taxes just before the election, hope to win a majority, and start all over again"

A vicious circle eh? - how about when Labour get into government, increase taxes, give more handouts in benefits, invest massive amounts of cash into bogus projects and wasteful quangoes save little, borrow more and spend like theres no tomorrow and in the end F*up the country so that the Tories will take over, make a fool of themselves trying to clear the mess and hope the they get voted back in as quick as possible and the cycle repeats itself!!! - MR BALLS even I can put a few sentences about how bad Labour was, it's not clever and you're not convincing anyone to vote for you.

Tell me something different, tell me how Labour is going encourage growth and reduce the deficit... oh... I want it on A4 so I can hold YOU accountable!

Orange Booker's picture

Blanchflower: My conversation with Ed Balls.

Is two people enough to have a circle jerk?

MattNW5's picture

And you're serious? Ed Balls, of all people, claiming that politics has trumped economics on too many occasions? Now I have seen it all.

Tyler's picture

Article is totally ridiculous. Especially when "Cutting too far and too fast" means cutting only marginalyl faster than the plan's Labour's Darling laid out, and slower than Obama is planning in the US. I don't feel that cutting public spending by roughly 1% is really that much of a disaster.

Mary Nash's picture

It is interesting Ed balls should elicit a number of hysterical unfair reactions. We should not be so scared of him. Perhaps it is timely to remind ourselves that he had a number of great achievements during the Labour years. Independence of the Bank of England was Ed Balls' original idea which he helped implement while economic adviser to the Treasury. Keeping Britain out of the Euro is another big achievement. Together with the rest of the Brown's treasury, the minimum wage was at last implemented. Wisely investing (spending) massively to rebuilt our public services devastated during the 80's and 90's and, at last delivering a First Class NHS with the highest Satisfaction Rate ever and the second overall ranking in the 2010 Ranking of Countries Healthcare, more schools built, 45% reduction in Crime Rate, more students in university education etc etc. Britain had 10 yrs of prosperity until the 2008 Global Financial meltdown which brought about the massive deficits. Brown/Darling led the way in saving the banks, and their actions have been vindicated when G Osborne was bequeathed an economy that grew by 1.8% during the first 6 months of 2010, with unemployment falling and inflation down.

Arthur Williamson's picture

I can just imagine the scene in 2015. The UK voters are about to vote in our next general election and will be significantly worse off financially compared to 2010. This will be a result of 5 years of fiscal tightening, epitomised by a double dip recession, massive levels of unemployment, severe cuts in public services, and the national deficit still very high because massive unemployment means too many people are claiming benefits rather than paying income tax. What will we read on the Tory election posters in 2015:

IT`S ALL LABOUR`S FAULT

WE INHERITED A MESS

When it comes to spin, the Tories only have one card to play. Sadly, this card seems to be working.

Stu's picture

@Mary Nash

Nobody is denying that there has been some good decisions made in the Labour government but like all governments they become complacent.

Sure they tried to keep us out of the EU but then giving away our veto is the worse thing they have done to counteract any thing they did to stop it!

wisely investing in the public sector? I wouldn't agree totally and again using mountains of borrowed money to fund it all which we can't pay back quick enough.

any government would have bailed out the banks so don't make it sound like it's a great feat, it ain't but why bail them out? because we rely on the financial sector too heavily something Labour put us in.

Unemployment? I don't think it has ever fallen to acceptable levels it's always been high.

Maybe throwing money into the public services makes everything 'look' good but if you consider the waste they created it's horrendous! no wonder they had to borrow more money and spend it rashly.

The had prosperity and wasted it.. they could have reformed Britain. Now we're in austerity and reform is the only way to reduce spending not the best period to be reforming is it?

bparker170's picture

Labour will not progress until it kicks out all those ex ministers tarnished by their involvement with the last government,including Mr "I claimed the full food allowance from the taxpayer despite being on a ministerial salary" Balls.Socialists committed to social justice my arse.

PeteyMcPeterson's picture

Ok listen up

1) IT'S NOT ALL LABOUR'S FAULT!!!

Every developed country in the world is not doing as well financially as they were five years ago. You think Greece are blaming Gordon Brown. No. Cause they're no idiots, unlike most of you lot.

2) Having a go at the opposition when you have no workable strategies is the oldest trick in the book. I'm talking about Balls, I'm talking about Cameron, I'm talking about virtually everyone commenting here.

What we need is not to blame the other side, we need more sides, we reed real alternatives to avoid the cop-out option of just blaming the opposition and not doing anything yourself.

We need electoral reform.

Vote yes to A.V. you freaking idiots.

christopher gordon's picture

Did you ask Ed why he advised Gordon to sell gold at the bottom of the market?

matthew fox's picture

What War Chest? Osborne will be borrowing more over the next four years, and that means extra tax increases on top.

It seems Stu's grasp of VAT is a bit shaky, he has forgotten that the Ken Clarke put 17.5% on domestic fuel, and Gordon Brown cut it to 5%.

He also forgets that Darling actually cut VAT to 15%.

As to unemployment, Mrs T managed to throw 3 million on the scrapheap, and her administration changed the definition of unemployment 61 times.

Mike S's picture

Hey Stu, Let us know how much Central Office is paying you for stalking this site and posting their disinformation.

You say "any government would have bailed out the banks so don't make it sound like it's a great feat,"

Remind me what Cameron and Osborne were advocating when the Northern Rock crisis was unfolding.

James D Hargreaves's picture

Did David Blanchflower criticize governments for excessive borrowing during those good times? Did he chastise them for not preparing for the bad times?

Mr. Blanchflower; remember the story of Joseph in Egypt, seven years of plenty, seven years of drought.

Now: there was an economist for you! How much of a Joseph were you over the last decade?

Joseph spoke up before the event and advised the government on the necessary corrective action needed to be taken before the bad times came.

Four Thousand years later, and this economist is still known today - why don't we heed the message?

We are all in this economic mess because the world is full of bad economists.

Fill the larder during the good times - use it up during the bad.

Mr. David Blanchflower forgot to fill his larder. He is now looking to take even more grain from someone else's larder - the banks and world financiers, which are making economic slaves of us all.

Stu's picture

@ Mike S
Yeah they're paying me minimum wage but right now I'm claiming for everything under the sun which makes up for it the lack of pay..thanks Labour loving the handouts j/k :P

and i said Any government... were the tories in government then? no... you forget being in opposition means you can be an 4rseh0le very much like how labour are being now ;)

@matthew fox
Well I enjoyed the 15% tax but they were gonna put it back up anyway IF they got back in power remember? short lived VAT decrease, I know everyone would have liked that to stick but they were gonna put it up anyway... probably because it would be unsustainable in the long run.. who knows...

and I did say we should look closer to recent times... 30 years ago is pretty damn long time. The world's changed far from then, get over it will ya... unless you're as old as Thatcher then I forgive you.

matthew fox's picture

" Gonna " is that a proper word Stu?

Did you enjoy the Vat increase of 15% to 17.5 % as well?

Reginald-Fah-fah's picture

@ David,

'Boy George' hasn't stolen Margaret Thatcher's 1980s dusty manual because I have got it, It's holding my manservant's bed up!

Luddite's picture

PeteyMcPeterson
29 April 2011

Who was in government with a large working majority for the previous 13 year's, of course, it's all Labour's fault? We can't blame Maggie for Labour's appalling mis'management of the economy.

Luddite's picture

jon
29 April 2011 at 23:15 No no!!! it's for the left to state, it's 'credible' alternative.

Privet
30 April 2011 at 19:18. Margaret Thatcher made many economic mistakes, but the communist party dominated trade unions, helped her on her way.

matthew fox
30 April 2011 at 20:20 did Thatcher traumatize you so much? matthew, she's a frail old lady, it's time you came-out from under your bed.

Hanil Walter's picture

Why I have to close business for one day for royal geezers?

My dad says: Vote tory company, is good for business.

But I says: I vote socialst company, cause tory company is too much mess with business.

Federico's picture

Now Labour wishes to accelerate growth of the national debt to regrow the public sector. Any not surprisingly, its wrapped up in tactical vote winning rhetoric and hearsey. There are no explanations of the risks and consquences which would loose Labour short term support, although could well win them long term power. http://www.microwaveovensreviews.net/

Stu's picture

@matthew fox
well no it's not a 'real' word but in dictionaries I think it's listed as a slang word to mean a contraction of 'going to' - listen mate don't be an 4rse

Did I enjoy the VAT increase? well no. Like I said, I would rather it had stayed at 15% which part did you not understand? I also said that Labour were 'going to' put it back up to 17.5 and more so my point is... even if Labour were to retain power they would have implemented similar measures as the present coalition.

jie4v7i14's picture

The 1970's were horrible with the on going post-Empire class war, and the 1980's were even worse. It was truelly shit being a young man in 1980's UK.

If only Tony Blair was about in 1979, is all I have to say.

Thatcher was a puppet, and she still doesn't know it. I agree with Balls, totally.

Indu Pendent's picture

@Ed Balls

The last government borrowed £350Bn before 2008 driven by political expediency rather than national interest. People trusted the government but the trust was abused - what did our kids get for them money?

Its not a trivial amount we can easily afford as goes Labour's defense.

Labour never rebuts that the last government created an economy funded on borrowing not wealth creation. It precided over the fastest decline in the UK's industrial base since the 1970s. Labour grew the public sector, withered the productive sector but it won Labour power propped up by votes of sections of the population.

Now Labour wishes to accelerate growth of the national debt to regrow the public sector. Any not surprisingly, its wrapped up in tactical vote winning rhetoric and hearsey. There are no explanations of the risks and consquences which would loose Labour short term support, although could well win them long term power.

The Tories have the nasty brand but consistent values they've kept over the long term - hard work and sacrafice for long term prosperity. Nasty isnt it? There are many nasty parents.

Labours values - borrow it, enjoy it now, get the votes in and we'll deal with the consequences tomorrow. Its backed by hard evidence.

So why would letting Labour free again on fiscal policy work for the UK?

chrizizi's picture

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Privet's picture

Still talking about Maggie Thatcher as the root of all evil.., wasnt her fault the British motor trade & shipbuilding was undercut by foreign products that where cheaper and more effective, did Maggie go to Japan & secretly build up their industries? to destroy the uk, come on Mr Blanchflower, for pitys sake.

matthew fox's picture

Mrs T was bankrolled by North Sea Oil, between 1980-1985, NSO revenues accounted for 15% of Government revenues.

There was no economic miracle, just free money that was wasted.

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