Clarke and rape sentencing: one day later

Why Miliband's opportunism was just as disgusting.

Sometimes things can seem different one day later.

The unfortunate and crass comments yesterday of Ken Clarke were bad enough. But there was something repellent in how the Leader of the Opposition and the Conservative Right sought to make immediate political capital of Clarke' difficulties.

And so today, what lingers for many is not so much Clarke's offensive tone and seeming complacency, but Miliband's distasteful opportunism in trying to make rape sentencing something to score points with at Prime Minister's Questions. It must have seemed such a good idea at the time, but it does not today.

As this blog set out yesterday, the Criminal Justice system does treat certain rape cases with more severity than others. This is not exceptional, and indeed it has long been settled sentencing policy. This not to say that rape is not rape, but punishments can and do vary according to the presence of aggravating factors. Indeed, no one seriously seems to think that this should not be how rape sentencing should operate.

And this was certainly not the only legal blog to point out that rape sentencing was more complicated than yesterday's media frenzy suggested: see for example former Tory MP and criminal barrister Jerry Hayes, Labour List blogger Ellie Combo, and my fellow liberal lawyer (and also a criminal barrister) Gaijin-San. The legal blog Beneath the Wig correctly observed that the over-reaction to Clarke's comments may even make rational debate on rape policy more difficult. And, as Brian Barber today observes (again at Labour List), the Labour Party should have been supportive of Clarke, not trying to get him sacked.

All this said, Clarke should not have said what he said, and definitely not in the way he said it. But his blunder was at least inadvertent, and it lacked the deliberation of those in his own party and the opposition who exploited and misrepresented the rape sentencing issue so as to try to get a political opponent sacked.

One day later, it is the cynicism of Miliband and others on this issue that disgusts as much as Clarke's original dreadful remarks.

 

David Allen Green is legal correspondent of the New Statesman

David Allen Green is legal correspondent of the New Statesman and author of the Jack of Kent blog.

His legal journalism has included popularising the Simon Singh libel case and discrediting the Julian Assange myths about his extradition case.  His uncovering of the Nightjack email hack by the Times was described as "masterly analysis" by Lord Justice Leveson.

David is also a solicitor and was successful in the "Twitterjoketrial" appeal at the High Court.

(Nothing on this blog constitutes legal advice.)

Ukip's Nigel Farage and Paul Nuttall. Photo: Getty
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Is the general election 2017 the end of Ukip?

Ukip led the way to Brexit, but now the party is on less than 10 per cent in the polls. 

Ukip could be finished. Ukip has only ever had two MPs, but it held an outside influence on politics: without it, we’d probably never have had the EU referendum. But Brexit has turned Ukip into a single-issue party without an issue. Ukip’s sole remaining MP, Douglas Carswell, left the party in March 2017, and told Sky News’ Adam Boulton that there was “no point” to the party anymore. 

Not everyone in Ukip has given up, though: Nigel Farage told Peston on Sunday that Ukip “will survive”, and current leader Paul Nuttall will be contesting a seat this year. But Ukip is standing in fewer constituencies than last time thanks to a shortage of both money and people. Who benefits if Ukip is finished? It’s likely to be the Tories. 

Is Ukip finished? 

What are Ukip's poll ratings?

Ukip’s poll ratings peaked in June 2016 at 16 per cent. Since the leave campaign’s success, that has steadily declined so that Ukip is going into the 2017 general election on 4 per cent, according to the latest polls. If the polls can be trusted, that’s a serious collapse.

Can Ukip get anymore MPs?

In the 2015 general election Ukip contested nearly every seat and got 13 per cent of the vote, making it the third biggest party (although is only returned one MP). Now Ukip is reportedly struggling to find candidates and could stand in as few as 100 seats. Ukip leader Paul Nuttall will stand in Boston and Skegness, but both ex-leader Nigel Farage and donor Arron Banks have ruled themselves out of running this time.

How many members does Ukip have?

Ukip’s membership declined from 45,994 at the 2015 general election to 39,000 in 2016. That’s a worrying sign for any political party, which relies on grassroots memberships to put in the campaigning legwork.

What does Ukip's decline mean for Labour and the Conservatives? 

The rise of Ukip took votes from both the Conservatives and Labour, with a nationalist message that appealed to disaffected voters from both right and left. But the decline of Ukip only seems to be helping the Conservatives. Stephen Bush has written about how in Wales voting Ukip seems to have been a gateway drug for traditional Labour voters who are now backing the mainstream right; so the voters Ukip took from the Conservatives are reverting to the Conservatives, and the ones they took from Labour are transferring to the Conservatives too.

Ukip might be finished as an electoral force, but its influence on the rest of British politics will be felt for many years yet. 

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