Can the SNP win more than 50 seats in May? We run through every seat in Scotland.
Like the US housing crisis, the rise of the SNP is an ‘out-of-sample’ event. It’s unclear how forecasters should react.
The SNP lead are set to win more than 50 of Scotland’s 59 seats, including Charles Kennedy’s and possibly even Jim Murphy’s.
More than 500 pundits, mostly academics, have offered their election predictions. Their forecasts don’t quite add up.
Three new forecasts published today reiterate how similar predictions are for this election – and that a hung parliament appears to be an inevitability.
The Lib Dems are polling more strongly than public polls suggest. They could hold onto as many as 35 seats in May.
Ashcroft polls show Ukip are competitive in three seats where the Tories won by big majorities in 2010.
It’s only news if you’ve compared lone polls to all the others, compare it to that pollster’s past and know each firm’s outliers.
Despite many supposed missteps, two types of poll last week showed Labour’s standing in England & Wales is still stronger than the Tories’.
Never has the UK been so clearly divided: Scotland is yellow, England is red or blue, Wales is a mix and Northern Ireland separate.
Lord Ashcroft’s seat-by-seat polls have confirmed the SNP are set to win more than 50 seats in May, after winning just 6 in 2010.
Recent polls suggest the party may have finally moved in front.
50 years after the BBC and ITN competed to predict election night first, we launch Florence: our election-forecasting machine.
If the Lib Dems lose almost half their MPs, what kind of party will remain? National and marginal polls suggest they have lost their left-wing.
We look at how specific voters have reacted to the coalition's economic policies since 2010.
A weighting error has disproven last week’s headlines – but what happened?
Britain is divided, between the young and the old, middle and working class, left and right, and even men and women.
We can compare tonight’s poll with Ashcroft’s seat-by-seat polls of Tory-Labour marginals.
Labour have ticked up, but the more obvious shift in Ashcroft's poll has been a 2-point Tory-to-Ukip swing.
See how many seats each party is set to win according to the seat-by-seat polls.
A poll today suggests the SNP have surged since the referendum campaign. They won't win 50 seats but will stop Labour winning a majority.
Today’s poll blast: the Greens fall back below the Lib Dems, as we forecast last week.
Miliband may have to offer the SNP another referendum, or the Lib Dems work with Ukip, for any coalition to manage a majority next year.
In post-referendum Scotland, the SNP are polling around 40 per cent, which could hand them more than a dozen Labour seats.
Today's numbers rely on nearly one in three young voters backing the Greens - we need more data before we can confirm today's spike.
The pollsters and the media have to make decisions based on public opinion – but those decisions can then shape us.
Marginal polls cost money.
Labour are only convincingly ahead in four of the ten seats in today's Ashcroft polls, but they need to win all for a majority in May 2015.
Ed Miliband’s party could start election night with nearly 260 seats, before it even starts winning those it lost in 2010.