Who will win? Miliband is favourite, but here's how Cameron can survive
By Harry Lambert - 05 May 15:58

Mathematically, Ed Miliband remains the most likely post-election PM. But we think there are four ways David Cameron could keep power.

A giant ballot box. Photo:  Matt Cardy/Getty Images
The blagger's guide to the election
By New Statesman - 20 April 14:04

What happens if no-one wins? Why are people not voting? What happened in 1974, and why does it matter?

Election 2015: Your complete guide to predictions about Scotland and the SNP
By Harry Lambert - 13 March 14:42

Can the SNP win more than 50 seats in May? We run through every seat in Scotland.

The rise of the SNP is a phenomenon without precedent – new predictions are guesswork
By May2015 - 05 March 18:25

Like the US housing crisis, the rise of the SNP is an ‘out-of-sample’ event. It’s unclear how forecasters should react.

New Ashcroft polls: Labour to be wiped out in Scotland and lose Gordon Brown’s seat
By May2015 - 04 March 20:58

The SNP lead are set to win more than 50 of Scotland’s 59 seats, including Charles Kennedy’s and possibly even Jim Murphy’s.

‘Experts’ don’t think SNP will fade, but inexplicably predict they will only win 29 seats
By Harry Lambert - 04 March 16:29

More than 500 pundits, mostly academics, have offered their election predictions. Their forecasts don’t quite add up.

Five election forecasts concur: Labour & Tories to fall at least 40 seats short of a majority
By May2015 - 27 February 12:52

Three new forecasts published today reiterate how similar predictions are for this election – and that a hung parliament appears to be an inevitability.

Introducing the New Statesman Political Index: Lib Dems to win at least 30 seats
By May2015 - 20 February 12:23

The Lib Dems are polling more strongly than public polls suggest. They could hold onto as many as 35 seats in May.

New Ashcroft polling shows Ukip could win three more Tory seats
By May2015 - 19 February 12:32

Ashcroft polls show Ukip are competitive in three seats where the Tories won by big majorities in 2010.

Here’s what would actually be news in polling – and three rules for reporting polls
By May2015 - 18 February 15:37

It’s only news if you’ve compared lone polls to all the others, compare it to that pollster’s past and know each firm’s outliers.

The Tories aren’t catching Labour in England & Wales
By Harry Lambert - 16 February 10:59

Despite many supposed missteps, two types of poll last week showed Labour’s standing in England & Wales is still stronger than the Tories’.

Politically, the UK is now five nations
By May2015 - 06 February 15:41

Never has the UK been so clearly divided: Scotland is yellow, England is red or blue, Wales is a mix and Northern Ireland separate.

Ashcroft polls show sensational surge for SNP and suggest they will win more than 50 MPs in May
By May2015 - 04 February 9:12

Lord Ashcroft’s seat-by-seat polls have confirmed the SNP are set to win more than 50 seats in May, after winning just 6 in 2010.

Are the Tories now ahead in the polls?
By Harry Lambert - 28 January 17:06

Recent polls suggest the party may have finally moved in front.

Follow every prediction – and make your own – with May2015’s election-forecasting machine
By May2015 - 06 January 16:19

50 years after the BBC and ITN competed to predict election night first, we launch Florence: our election-forecasting machine.

The Lib Dems will be a centre-right party after the election
By Harry Lambert - 15 December 19:38

If the Lib Dems lose almost half their MPs, what kind of party will remain? National and marginal polls suggest they have lost their left-wing.

The coalition is handling the economy well if you ask the rich – and badly if you ask the poor
By Harry Lambert - 01 December 18:29

We look at how specific voters have reacted to the coalition's economic policies since 2010.

Ashcroft corrects his Doncaster North poll: Miliband ahead by 29
By May2015 - 01 December 16:56

A weighting error has disproven last week’s headlines – but what happened?

How does concern about immigration differ by age, class, party and gender?
By Harry Lambert - 29 November 16:35

Britain is divided, between the young and the old, middle and working class, left and right, and even men and women.

ComRes suggest Labour’s summer leads in the key marginals are intact
By Harry Lambert - 26 November 21:36

We can compare tonight’s poll with Ashcroft’s seat-by-seat polls of Tory-Labour marginals.

Ashcroft joins Populus in putting Labour up 5 points: What's changed?
By Harry Lambert - 24 November 18:15

Labour have ticked up, but the more obvious shift in Ashcroft's poll has been a 2-point Tory-to-Ukip swing.

Explore all of Lord Ashcroft's 89 marginal polls
By May2015 - 07 November 14:45

See how many seats each party is set to win according to the seat-by-seat polls.

Poll: SNP will win 54 seats in Scotland
By Harry Lambert - 30 October 15:21

A poll today suggests the SNP have surged since the referendum campaign. They won't win 50 seats but will stop Labour winning a majority.

As expected, Greens fall back to 5 per cent in Ashcroft’s weekly poll
By May2015 - 28 October 13:23

Today’s poll blast: the Greens fall back below the Lib Dems, as we forecast last week.

Could there be two elections next year for the first time in 40 years?
By Harry Lambert - 24 October 13:27

Miliband may have to offer the SNP another referendum, or the Lib Dems work with Ukip, for any coalition to manage a majority next year.

Could the SNP win 25 Labour seats in 2015?
By Harry Lambert - 21 October 18:55

In post-referendum Scotland, the SNP are polling around 40 per cent, which could hand them more than a dozen Labour seats.

Have the Greens really overtaken the Lib Dems in the polls?
By Harry Lambert - 20 October 18:11

Today's numbers rely on nearly one in three young voters backing the Greens - we need more data before we can confirm today's spike. 

Polls can shape reality, not just reflect it
By Harry Lambert - 20 October 11:07

The pollsters and the media have to make decisions based on public opinion – but those decisions can then shape us.

Ashcroft's latest polls: Labour ahead but any majority likely precarious
By Harry Lambert - 16 October 13:17

Labour are only convincingly ahead in four of the ten seats in today's Ashcroft polls, but they need to win all for a majority in May 2015.