Are the Tories now ahead in the polls?
By Harry Lambert - 28 January 17:06

Recent polls suggest the party may have finally moved in front.

Follow every prediction – and make your own – with May2015’s election-forecasting machine
By May2015 - 06 January 16:19

50 years after the BBC and ITN competed to predict election night first, we launch Florence: our election-forecasting machine.

The Lib Dems will be a centre-right party after the election
By Harry Lambert - 15 December 19:38

If the Lib Dems lose almost half their MPs, what kind of party will remain? National and marginal polls suggest they have lost their left-wing.

The coalition is handling the economy well if you ask the rich – and badly if you ask the poor
By Harry Lambert - 01 December 18:29

We look at how specific voters have reacted to the coalition's economic policies since 2010.

Ashcroft corrects his Doncaster North poll: Miliband ahead by 29
By May2015 - 01 December 16:56

A weighting error has disproven last week’s headlines – but what happened?

How does concern about immigration differ by age, class, party and gender?
By Harry Lambert - 29 November 16:35

Britain is divided, between the young and the old, middle and working class, left and right, and even men and women.

ComRes suggest Labour’s summer leads in the key marginals are intact
By Harry Lambert - 26 November 21:36

We can compare tonight’s poll with Ashcroft’s seat-by-seat polls of Tory-Labour marginals.

Ashcroft joins Populus in putting Labour up 5 points: What's changed?
By Harry Lambert - 24 November 18:15

Labour have ticked up, but the more obvious shift in Ashcroft's poll has been a 2-point Tory-to-Ukip swing.

Explore all of Lord Ashcroft's 89 marginal polls
By May2015 - 07 November 14:45

See how many seats each party is set to win according to the seat-by-seat polls.

Poll: SNP will win 54 seats in Scotland
By Harry Lambert - 30 October 15:21

A poll today suggests the SNP have surged since the referendum campaign. They won't win 50 seats but will stop Labour winning a majority.

As expected, Greens fall back to 5 per cent in Ashcroft’s weekly poll
By May2015 - 28 October 13:23

Today’s poll blast: the Greens fall back below the Lib Dems, as we forecast last week.

Could there be two elections next year for the first time in 40 years?
By Harry Lambert - 24 October 13:27

Miliband may have to offer the SNP another referendum, or the Lib Dems work with Ukip, for any coalition to manage a majority next year.

Could the SNP win 25 Labour seats in 2015?
By Harry Lambert - 21 October 18:55

In post-referendum Scotland, the SNP are polling around 40 per cent, which could hand them more than a dozen Labour seats.

Have the Greens really overtaken the Lib Dems in the polls?
By Harry Lambert - 20 October 18:11

Today's numbers rely on nearly one in three young voters backing the Greens - we need more data before we can confirm today's spike. 

Polls can shape reality, not just reflect it
By Harry Lambert - 20 October 11:07

The pollsters and the media have to make decisions based on public opinion – but those decisions can then shape us.

Ashcroft's latest polls: Labour ahead but any majority likely precarious
By Harry Lambert - 16 October 13:17

Labour are only convincingly ahead in four of the ten seats in today's Ashcroft polls, but they need to win all for a majority in May 2015.

Will the Tories win any of Labour’s seats in May 2015?
By Harry Lambert - 15 October 12:09

Ed Miliband’s party could start election night with nearly 260 seats, before it even starts winning those it lost in 2010.

Did Labour's poll lead just vanish in a week?
By May2015 - 07 October 13:02

Four of the six most recent polls have handed the Tories a lead, and an average of all suggests we are tied.

Nick Clegg's party could lose 17 seats to Labour.
Ashcroft polls: Lib Dems could lose 17 seats to Labour
By Lucy Fisher - 01 July 11:54

The latest polling by Lord Ashcroft offers a snapshot of the wipe out facing Lib Dems in battleground seats against Labour.

Voters are warming to the idea of a Labour government
By George Eaton - 21 November 9:11

Lord Ashcroft poll shows that 56 per cent of voters would like to see a Labour-led government after the next election.

Corby shows how a Lib Dem collapse will hurt the Tories
By George Eaton - 16 November 16:19

A fall in support for the Lib Dems will propel Labour to victory in Tory marginals.

Labour's lead
Labour's poll surge: ten key points
By George Eaton - 27 March 10:25

What lies behind Labour's 10-point poll lead?

What lies behind the Tories' poll bounce?
By George Eaton - 14 December 9:11

The Tories surge past Labour in the polls after Cameron's rejection of a new EU treaty.

Could Ukip overtake the Lib Dems?
By George Eaton - 16 November 14:09

Lib Dems fall to seven per cent in new poll, just two points ahead of Ukip.

A grim poll for the Tories
By George Eaton - 18 October 10:21

Labour lead up to eight points as Tory support falls to just 33 per cent in new Populus poll.

A poll bounce for the Tories
By George Eaton - 31 August 12:22

Latest YouGov poll puts the Tories on 39 per cent, just a point behind Labour.

Are we witnessing a Lib Dem revival?
By George Eaton - 22 February 10:29

New ICM poll puts the party on 18 per cent, their highest rating since September.

Labour opens up a five-point lead over the Tories
By New Statesman - 25 January 11:37

Latest opinion poll puts Labour on 42 per cent with the Tories trailing on 37 per cent.

Lib Dems hit a new poll low
By George Eaton - 09 December 11:20

Support for Clegg’s party falls to just 8 per cent – the lowest level in 20 years.