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Ben Walker is a data journalist at the New Statesman.
The NS was the second most accurate of all the main US election forecasters.
Sanders’s brand of radical politics is popular among activists – but it appeals less to the key voters needed to win the White House.
Old assumptions about where a candidate gets their support may warrant a rethink.
The Democratic candidate needs white suburbia to turn out for him. Data from Ohio suggests it might just work.
Early numbers from Florida spell positive news for the Republican incumbent.
A second victory for Donald Trump would require a much bigger polling error than that seen in 2016.
The New Statesman's model, forecasting the upcoming US presidential election.
Outlandish predictions always attract attention online, but changes over recent days appear to be mostly noise.
Democrats could do with Hispanics in the Sun Belt what Donald Trump did with white voters in the Rust Belt – but it won’t yield as big a dividend as the party might hope.