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Glen O’Hara is Professor of Modern and Contemporary History at Oxford Brookes University. He is the author of a series of books about modern Britain, including The Paradoxes of Progress: Governing Post-War Britain, 1951-1973 (2011). He is currently working on A History of Water in Modern Britain (forthcoming, 2016). He blogs, in a personal capacity, at Public Policy and the Past.
The most surprising thing about polling over the last year is how stable is has been, despite all the squalls and alarms that obsessive Westminster watchers fixate on.
At no time in the modern era has Labour in opposition gone up in the polls from this point.
Labour have gone backwards everywhere on their performance in the 2010-15 Parliament, an experience that hardly seemed to cover them in glory even at the time.
Performance in local elections is an enormously powerful indicator – perhaps one of the most powerful signals – of the next General Election’s actual result.
The picture in London is good. Everywhere else, there's little to cheer about
A leader of his type has never risen to the top of Labour before, says historian Glen O'Hara.
The gains in Labour's support are small so far - and concentrated in seats Labour already hold.
A handful of polls and early by-elections give us an idea of who Corbyn's leadership will - and won't - appeal to.