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The easier path is more popular: to always complain but never oppose. It's not optimal for anyone but it appears to be the position most MPs are settling into.
At first glance, the psychology favours the status quo - but In has a tricky fight on its hand.
Left and right alike, our brains are hard-wired to believe politics is easy.
The group dynamics of a leadership contest were always going to incline towards an extreme conclusion of one kind or another, explains Steve van Riel.
The psychological evidence is that sharing the facts doesn't change people's minds.
You can't win if people don't trust you - but "trust" is rather more complicated than you might think.
The outcome of the election is uncertain. But there are some things that will definitely happen afterwards, regardless of the result.