After two brutal years, the war in Gaza appears to be on the verge of ending. Israel and Hamas have agreed to an exchange of the remaining Israeli hostages for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli jails – a major step toward ending a war that has killed more than 60,000 Palestinians.
Representatives for Israel and Hamas have been in Egypt for days, negotiating under pressure from US, Egyptian, Qatari and Turkish officials to agree to Donald Trump’s 20-point peace plan. Though Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Hamas both indicated early on that they welcomed the plan, which the US president presented on 29 September, there were still sticking points for both sides. But late on Wednesday 8 October, Trump posted on his social media site that he was “very proud to announce that Israel and Hamas have both signed off on the first Phase of our Peace Plan. This means that ALL of the Hostages will be released very soon, and Israel will withdraw their Troops to an agreed upon line as the first steps toward a Strong, Durable, and Everlasting Peace”.
Though Trump’s original 20-point plan made no mention of a phased deal, Trump’s reference to a “first phase” indicates that there is still much to be worked out in order to reach a definitive end to the war. That didn’t, however, stop Trump from signing off his statement with “BLESSED ARE THE PEACEMAKERS!” and announcing that he may soon travel to the Middle East himself. (The Nobel Peace Prize is due to be announced on 10 October, after all, and Trump is desperate to win.)
Not long after his first post, the relevant parties followed up on social media to confirm the deal. Hamas posted it had agreed to release the hostages and the Israel Defence Forces posted that it was preparing to “transition to adjusted deployment lines soon”, suggesting that the Israeli military would retreat to what Trump referred to as “an agreed upon line” within Gaza. Netanyahu is already describing this development as his achievement, calling the agreement a “great day for Israel”.
For Netanyahu, portraying this agreement as a victory is crucial. He not only has to sell this agreement to his far-right coalition government, but also he must convince the Israeli public that his leadership was vital in reaching a deal. The release of the remaining hostages Hamas kidnapped on 7 October was one of Netanyahu’s stated war aims – and is a legitimate cause for celebration in Israel. (Indeed, Israelis are already celebrating, with families of hostages descending on to the streets of Tel Aviv drinking champagne in the hours after Trump’s announcement.)
What is still unclear is whether this agreement will provide the opportunity for Netanyahu to claim a wider military win over Hamas. Once the hostages are home and the Palestinian prisoners have been released, the agreement will move to the next phase. It’s uncertain whether key points of Trump’s plan, such as the point stipulating that Hamas was to surrender its arms, have been agreed. (Though disarming completely has always been a red line for Hamas, an official from the group told Al Jazeera on 3 October that the group is willing to give up all of its weapons so long as “the occupation ends and the Palestinians control themselves”.) Also uncertain is whether Hamas will agree to a ban preventing it from participating in future political activity in Gaza. If Hamas does relinquish all arms and political control of Gaza in the next phase, and it steps aside for a technocratic government overseen by a “Board of Peace” run by Trump and Tony Blair, then prepare for Netanyahu to claim that he also achieved his goal of eradicating Hamas. But that is an enormous if.
Even then, there is a distinct possibility that this agreement marks the beginning of the end for Netanyahu’s leadership. His catastrophic war in Gaza, which has been deemed a genocide by the UN and numerous scholars, has isolated Israel diplomatically. And the Israeli PM briefly propelled himself into an incredibly strong strategic position this summer following the 12-day war in Iran, when Trump joined Israel in at least partially destroying Tehran’s nuclear programme, that strength soon evaporated after Israel’s surprise strike on Hamas negotiators in Qatar in September. The strike not only failed to kill its targets, it infuriated Arab leaders and the White House. Following the strike, Trump wrote on social media: “Unilaterally bombing inside Qatar, a Sovereign Nation and close Ally of the United States, that is working very hard and bravely taking risks with us to broker Peace, does not advance Israel or America’s goals.” He then began to increase pressure on Netanyahu to end the war. (Strikingly, the same day that Trump announced his peace plan from the White House, he also forced Netanyahu to call Qatari leadership to apologise and released photographs of the moment.)
Meanwhile, as the war in Gaza dragged on, anger in Israel has only grown as an increasing number suspected that the prime minister was more interested in keeping his volatile far-right coalition intact – and his political career afloat – than in freeing the hostages. That feeling only grew after a ceasefire collapsed in March, before all of the hostages were released, and Israel resumed bombing in Gaza.
[Further reading: The world has abandoned the hostages]
Even now, with the remaining hostages on the verge of freedom, there is palpable anger with Netanyahu at home. Upon hearing the news of the agreement on 9 October, the Israeli advocacy group, Soldiers for the Hostages, released a statement saying, “We are deeply grateful to President Donald Trump for bringing us to this long-awaited moment – a moment that would not have come without his decisive pressure on the Israeli government. That pressure forced our leaders to face reality and accept what we have been saying and fighting for over a year: there was never any military path to victory in Gaza.” No mention – and certainly no credit – was given to Netanyahu. Meanwhile, the father of Nimrod Cohen, a hostage still being held in Gaza, told Israel’s Channel 12 News that “there should be no doubt, this deal came about solely because of President Trump”.
Netanyahu was able to manage this public anger while the hostages were in captivity and Israel was fighting a multi-front war. It will be far more difficult for the prime minister to hold his domestic pressures at bay once the war is over. First, there’s the fact that within the next 12 months Israel must hold an election, which polls suggest Netanyahu wouldn’t win. Then there’s the long-running corruption trial he faces, which has been repeatedly delayed due to the country’s security concerns and the outstanding arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court over charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity. These dilemmas could feel far more urgent for Netanyahu in the coming weeks and months.
For now, the US will continue to work with Qatar, Egypt and Turkey to push Hamas and Israel over the line in reaching a diplomatic solution to the war in Gaza. There is still much that is unclear. But a window of hope, however fragile – for Gaza, for a Palestinian state, for wider peace in the region – has opened up for the Middle East. That Benjamin Netanyahu will try to own it is certain. Whether Israel lets him, is another question.
[Further reading: Simon Case: The Official Secrets Act isn’t fit for purpose]
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