On 7 November, Japan’s new prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, was asked the seemingly straightforward question of what she would consider a “survival threatening situation” by an opposition MP, who invoked the legal definition that allows the prime minister to deploy the country’s self-defence forces (as the Japanese military is known). Takaichi responded that a large-scale Chinese assault on Taiwan would meet the criteria. She later added that if China enforced a blockade on Taiwan and fired on any US naval vessels attempting to breach it, Japan might also be required to use military force.
From one perspective, Takaichi was merely stating the obvious. If Xi Jinping ordered an invasion of Taiwan or attacked US forces trying to break a Chinese blockade, then it is unrealistic to imagine that Japan, which hosts the US’s largest contingent of overseas troops and has an island, Yonaguni, with a military base, less than 70 miles from Taiwan, could simply sit on the sidelines.
Viewed from Beijing, Takaichi’s comments were intolerable. China’s foreign ministry warned the country would “decisively crush any schemes to interfere with or obstruct” their efforts at “reunification”. (Beijing claims sovereignty over Taiwan as an “inalienable” part of China, although the Chinese Communist Party, CCP, has never ruled there.) China’s consul general in Osaka went further. “[If a] filthy neck sticks itself in uninvited, we will cut it off without a moment’s hesitation,” he posted on X (and later deleted).
Any hopes the crisis might subside have been replaced by fears as to just how bad it could get. Takaichi is digging in. She has said that her remarks were hypothetical, but refused to withdraw them. Beijing has suspended imports of Japanese seafood and cancelled group tours to Japan, as well as performances by Japanese artists and screenings of Japanese films, and warned Chinese citizens against travel to Japan. November’s annual Beijing-Tokyo forum was indefinitely postponed as China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, released a statement accusing the Japanese leadership of crossing “a red line that should not have been touched”. In recent days, Chinese coastguard ships have circled the disputed island chain known as the Diaoyu islands in China and Senkaku in Japan.
The context here is essential. First, there is Beijing’s distinct wariness regarding Takaichi herself, who, as Japan’s first female prime minister, has predictably been derided as a “witch” on Chinese social media. More importantly, she is seen as a protégé of Shinzo Abe, the hardline nationalist premier who was assassinated during a political rally in 2022. At a time when Japan was already engaged in a concerted military build-up (in contrast to the country’s post-Second World War pacifist stance), Beijing was primed to view Takaichi as a threat.
Though after much effort from the Japanese, Xi did agree to meet with the prime minister at the Asia-Pacific Economic Conference in South Korea on 31 October – where they vowed to build “constructive and stable ties” – but just 24 hours later, Takaichi met with Taiwan’s representative and posted a smiling photograph of the encounter on social media. This prompted protests from Beijing, which always objects to official interactions with Taipei and likely interpreted it as a sign of disrespect towards Xi. Six days later came her infamous remarks, shattering the already fragile détente between the two leaders.
Under Xi, it is far safer for China’s diplomats and bureaucrats to overreact to perceived slights against the dear leader and the political touchpaper that is Taiwan. And so the outrage machine kicked into high gear, where it remains (although, at the time of writing, there have been no further threats to chop off heads). Emboldened by China’s perceived success in punching back against Donald Trump’s trade war, Beijing may well be tempted to apply the same approach to Tokyo. With Trump in the White House, openly questioning America’s role in the world and the value of its alliances, Xi might also decide to increase the pressure on US allies in the region as he presses ahead with his ambition to make China its pre-eminent power.
Looming over contemporary geopolitics is the bitter memory of the Second World War, when Japan invaded China and committed a series of atrocities, for which Beijing believes the contemporary government has never expressed sufficient regret. (In fact, successive prime ministers have apologised for Japan’s actions during the war.) With the 80th anniversary of the end of the war earlier this year, China has been ramping up appeals to its own distorted history of the conflict, which glorifies the supposed heroism of the CCP and vilifies Japan. In a call with Trump on 24 November, Xi reiterated China’s claim to Taiwan and reminded him that their two countries “fought shoulder to shoulder against fascism and militarism” – ie, Japan – during that war.
Neither does Takaichi seem to be looking for a way to defuse. She will not want to be seen to be weak, lest it be perceived she is buckling under Chinese pressure. Instead, on 23 November, she dispatched her defence minister to Yonaguni, the Japanese island nearest to Taiwan, where he affirmed plans to station surface-to-air missiles. China’s foreign ministry accused Tokyo of “leading Japan and the region towards disaster”. Both sides, it seems, are preparing for a longer fight.
[Further reading: Europe’s victim complex]
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This article appears in the 26 Nov 2025 issue of the New Statesman, The Last Stand